Modelling for supply uncertainty of production using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system

Iffan Maflahah; Dian Farida Asfan; Raden Arief Firmansyah

doi:10.31127/tuje.1838015

Modelling for supply uncertainty of production using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system

Abstract

The amount of fruit supply is unpredictable because it is seasonal, while the demand for juice constantly increases. Efforts to address uncertainty in both supply and demand necessitate the implementation of accurate production quantity forecasting. Therefore, this study aimed to use the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy System (ANFIS) approach to model the amount of fruit production based on the uncertainty of the amount of supply. The dataset comprised 48 observation periods, and to develop a robust and reliable model, the data were partitioned into two subsets, including 75% for training and 25% for testing the ANFIS model. The model structure built with ANFIS uses three inputs, including demand quantity, fruit supply quantity, and puree availability. The supply of fruit is seasonal in nature, resulting in substantial availability during the harvest period. During this time, the surplus fruit is processed into puree and juice to ensure continuity of supply beyond the harvest season. The output produced is the amount of juice produced. Based on the most accurate error value based on RMSE (0.063), MAPE (1.55%), MAD (0.027), and R2 (94.4%). The forecasting model for fruit juice production with the ANFIS approach is the Gaussian membership function (Hybrid), with the number of memberships 3 – 4 – 5.

Keywords

Supporting Institution

University of Trunojoyo Madura

Project Number

Not applicable

Ethical Statement

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest and this research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Thanks

The authors declare no conflict of interest and acknowledge no outside assistance or funding sources related to this document

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Decision Support and Group Support Systems

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Iffan Maflahah
0000-0002-4940-6445
Indonesia

Dian Farida Asfan ^*
0009-0002-4122-3668
Indonesia

Raden Arief Firmansyah
0009-0000-6412-4828
Indonesia

Publication Date

May 1, 2026

Submission Date

December 8, 2025

Acceptance Date

April 9, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 10 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1838015

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA93PR23NB

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Maflahah, I., Asfan, D. F., & Firmansyah, R. A. (2026). Modelling for supply uncertainty of production using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system. Turkish Journal of Engineering, 10(2), 608-619. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1838015

AMA

1.Maflahah I, Asfan DF, Firmansyah RA. Modelling for supply uncertainty of production using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system. TUJE. 2026;10(2):608-619. doi:10.31127/tuje.1838015

Chicago

Maflahah, Iffan, Dian Farida Asfan, and Raden Arief Firmansyah. 2026. “Modelling for Supply Uncertainty of Production Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System”. Turkish Journal of Engineering 10 (2): 608-19. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1838015.

EndNote

Maflahah I, Asfan DF, Firmansyah RA (May 1, 2026) Modelling for supply uncertainty of production using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system. Turkish Journal of Engineering 10 2 608–619.

IEEE

[1]I. Maflahah, D. F. Asfan, and R. A. Firmansyah, “Modelling for supply uncertainty of production using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system”, TUJE, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 608–619, May 2026, doi: 10.31127/tuje.1838015.

ISNAD

Maflahah, Iffan - Asfan, Dian Farida - Firmansyah, Raden Arief. “Modelling for Supply Uncertainty of Production Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System”. Turkish Journal of Engineering 10/2 (May 1, 2026): 608-619. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1838015.

JAMA

1.Maflahah I, Asfan DF, Firmansyah RA. Modelling for supply uncertainty of production using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system. TUJE. 2026;10:608–619.

MLA

Maflahah, Iffan, et al. “Modelling for Supply Uncertainty of Production Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System”. Turkish Journal of Engineering, vol. 10, no. 2, May 2026, pp. 608-19, doi:10.31127/tuje.1838015.

Vancouver

1.Iffan Maflahah, Dian Farida Asfan, Raden Arief Firmansyah. Modelling for supply uncertainty of production using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system. TUJE. 2026 May 1;10(2):608-19. doi:10.31127/tuje.1838015