The Arab Spring and The Possibility of the Success of Likely Revolutions

Year 2019, Volume: 10 Issue: 53, 129 - 149, 25.11.2022

İbrahim Karataş

Abstract

This study analyzes whether uprisings after the Arab Spring such as those in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq are not new but a continuation of the revolutionary process. When countries incurred to revolutions are examined, it can be seen that all conditions that sparked the first phase still exist, and there are even more oppression and worse living conditions. The Arab Spring looks like the 1848 revolutions of Europe in some aspects and it might have the same result. Yet, seeing the end of the process may take decades since there are not only two opposing actors (people and dictators) but also armies and foreign powers, which have a decisive effect on revolutions. However, these actors against populations are variables, thereby they may ease revolutions by changing sides. In addition, a change in opposition groups’ uncompromising attitudes against armies and foreign powers and their hostile posture against them might be a great factor in future uprisings. Through wielding literature review, this study aims to contribute literature with its argument that the collaboration of civilians and army during transition is key factor for the success of revolutions.

Keywords

Arab Spring, Middle East, Popular Revolution, Democracy, Uprising

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