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The Arab Spring and The Possibility of the Success of Likely Revolutions

Year 2019, Volume: 10 Issue: 53, 129 - 149, 25.11.2022

Abstract

This study analyzes whether uprisings after the Arab Spring such as those in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq are not new but a continuation of the revolutionary process. When countries incurred to revolutions are examined, it can be seen that all conditions that sparked the first phase still exist, and there are even more oppression and worse living conditions. The Arab Spring looks like the 1848 revolutions of Europe in some aspects and it might have the same result. Yet, seeing the end of the process may take decades since there are not only two opposing actors (people and dictators) but also armies and foreign powers, which have a decisive effect on revolutions. However, these actors against populations are variables, thereby they may ease revolutions by changing sides. In addition, a change in opposition groups’ uncompromising attitudes against armies and foreign powers and their hostile posture against them might be a great factor in future uprisings. Through wielding literature review, this study aims to contribute literature with its argument that the collaboration of civilians and army during transition is key factor for the success of revolutions.

References

  • Abselsalam, E. (2015). “The Arab spring: Its Origins, Evolution and Consequences… Four Years on”. Intellectual Discourse, 23, 119-139.
  • Achcar, G. (2019). “The Seasons After the Arab Spring”. The Nation. https://www.thenation.com/article/arab-spring-sudan-algeriairaq-egypt-tunisia/, Accessed on 01.09.2019.
  • Aday, S., et al (2012). New Media and Conflict After The Arab Spring. Washington: USIP.
  • Al Jazeera (2019). “Sudan Forms 11-Member Sovereign Council, Headed by al-Burhan”. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/sudan-forms-11-member-sovereign-council-headed-al-burhan-190820204821614.html, Accessed on 25.09.2019.
  • Al Shaykh, M. (2018). “Arab Countries Ranked By Youth Unemployment”. Step Feed. https://stepfeed.com/arab-countriesranked-by-youth-unemployment-7359, Accessed 24.09.2019.
  • Alterman, J.B. (2019). “A New Arab Spring?”. CSIS. https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-arab-spring, Accessed on 10.10.2019.
  • Altunışık, M. B. (2014). “Rentier State Theory and the Arab Uprisings: An Appraisal”. Uluslararası İlişkiler, 11(42), 75-91.
  • Anderson, L. (2011). “Demystifying the Arab Spring; Parsing the Differences Between Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya”. Foreign Affairs, 90(3), 2-7.
  • Beck, M. and Hüser, S. (2012). Political Change in the Middle East: An Attempt to Analyze the “Arab Spring”. Hamburg: GIGA
  • Bradley, J. (2012). After the Arab Spring: How Islamists Hijacked The Middle East Revolts. New York: Palgrave/MacMillan
  • Cavatorta, F. (2012). Arab Spring: The Awakening of Civil Society. A General Overview. Barcelona: IEMED
  • Cinar, S. and Gocer, I. (2014). “The Reasons and Economic and Political Consequences of Arab Spring”. Khazar Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 17(2), 39-49.
  • Debeuf, K. (2017). “The Arab Spring Seven Years On: Failure Or Just The Beginning?”. Turkish Policy Quarterly, 16(3): 41-48.
  • Douglas, C., et al (2014). The Arab Uprisings: Causes, Consequences and Perspectives. Kennesaw: ICAT.
  • Eran, O. (2011). “The West Responds to the Arab Spring”. Strategic Assessment, 14(2), 15-28.
  • Gladwell, M. (2010). Small Change. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/10/04/smallchange- malcolm-gladwell, Accessed on 23.09.2019.
  • Howard, P. N., et al (2011). Opening Closed Regimes What Was the Role of Social Media During the Arab Spring?. Washington: PITPI.
  • Hroub, K. (2015). (Social) Media and Politics and the Arab Spring Moment. Barcelona: IEMED.
  • Idris, I. (2016). Analysis of the Arab Spring. Birmingham: GSDRC
  • Joffe, G. (2011). “The Arab Spring in North Africa: Origins and Prospects”. The Journal of North African Studies, 16, 507-532.
  • Kirkpatrick, D.D. (2019). “Arab Spring, Again? Nervous Autocrats Look Out Windows as Crowds Swell”. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/08/world/africa/arabspring- north-africa-protesters.html, Accessed on 21.09.2019.
  • Lamzouwaq, S. (2019). “Is 2019 a New Arab Spring, and Will It Succeed This Time?”. Moroccco World News. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2019/04/270778/2019- new-arab-spring/, Accessed on 06.08.2019.
  • Laz, E. (2014). “Sustainable Democracy and the Paradox of the Arab Spring: The Egypt Experience”. Alternatives: Turkish Journal Of International Relations, 13(1-2): 41-51.
  • Manfreda, P. (2019). “What Is the Arab Spring?”. Thought Co. https://www.thoughtco.com/definition-of-the-arab-spring-2353029, Accessed on 21.09.2019.
  • McQuaid, J. (2017). The Same, Yet Different: United States and Gulf State Interests in the Post-Arab Spring Maghreb. Arlington: CNA
  • Mulderig, M.C. (2013). An Uncertain Future: Youth Frustration and the Arab Spring. Boston: Boston University.
  • Mushtaq, A. and Afzal, M. (2017). “Arab Spring: Its Causes And Consequences”. JPUHS, 30(1), 1-10.
  • Rabindranath, M. and Kapil, S. (2015). “Social Media and the Arab Spring”. Media Watch, 6 (1):124-132.
  • Rozsa, E.N., et. al (2012). The Arab Spring: Its Impact on the Region and on the Middle East Conference. Frankfurt: APOME.
  • Saidin, M. (2018). “Rethinking the ‘Arab Spring’: The Root Causes of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution and Egyptian January 25 Revolution”. International Journal of Islamic Thought, 13(June), 69-80.
  • Salih, K. (2013). “The Roots And Causes Of The 2011 Arab Uprisings”. Arab Studies Quarterly, 35(2), 184-206.
  • Wolfsfeld, G., Segev, E. and Sheafer, T. (2013). “Social Media and the Arab Spring: Politics Comes First”. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 18(2), 115–137.
  • Steinberg, G. (2014). Leading the Counter-Revolution: Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring. Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
  • Travis, H. (2013). “Wargaming the “Arab Spring”: Predicting Likely Outcomes and Planning U.N. Responses”. Cornell International Law Journal, 46, 75-142.

The Arab Spring and The Possibility of the Success of Likely Revolutions

Year 2019, Volume: 10 Issue: 53, 129 - 149, 25.11.2022

Abstract

This study analyzes whether uprisings after the Arab Spring such as those in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq are not new but a continuation of the revolutionary process. When countries incurred to revolutions are examined, it can be seen that all conditions that sparked the first phase still exist, and there are even more oppression and worse living conditions. The Arab Spring looks like the 1848 revolutions of Europe in some aspects and it might have the same result. Yet, seeing the end of the process may take decades since there are not only two opposing actors (people and dictators) but also armies and foreign powers, which have a decisive effect on revolutions. However, these actors against populations are variables, thereby they may ease revolutions by changing sides. In addition, a change in opposition groups’ uncompromising attitudes against armies and foreign powers and their hostile posture against them might be a great factor in future uprisings. Through wielding literature review, this study aims to contribute literature with its argument that the collaboration of civilians and army during transition is key factor for the success of revolutions.

References

  • Abselsalam, E. (2015). “The Arab spring: Its Origins, Evolution and Consequences… Four Years on”. Intellectual Discourse, 23, 119-139.
  • Achcar, G. (2019). “The Seasons After the Arab Spring”. The Nation. https://www.thenation.com/article/arab-spring-sudan-algeriairaq-egypt-tunisia/, Accessed on 01.09.2019.
  • Aday, S., et al (2012). New Media and Conflict After The Arab Spring. Washington: USIP.
  • Al Jazeera (2019). “Sudan Forms 11-Member Sovereign Council, Headed by al-Burhan”. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/sudan-forms-11-member-sovereign-council-headed-al-burhan-190820204821614.html, Accessed on 25.09.2019.
  • Al Shaykh, M. (2018). “Arab Countries Ranked By Youth Unemployment”. Step Feed. https://stepfeed.com/arab-countriesranked-by-youth-unemployment-7359, Accessed 24.09.2019.
  • Alterman, J.B. (2019). “A New Arab Spring?”. CSIS. https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-arab-spring, Accessed on 10.10.2019.
  • Altunışık, M. B. (2014). “Rentier State Theory and the Arab Uprisings: An Appraisal”. Uluslararası İlişkiler, 11(42), 75-91.
  • Anderson, L. (2011). “Demystifying the Arab Spring; Parsing the Differences Between Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya”. Foreign Affairs, 90(3), 2-7.
  • Beck, M. and Hüser, S. (2012). Political Change in the Middle East: An Attempt to Analyze the “Arab Spring”. Hamburg: GIGA
  • Bradley, J. (2012). After the Arab Spring: How Islamists Hijacked The Middle East Revolts. New York: Palgrave/MacMillan
  • Cavatorta, F. (2012). Arab Spring: The Awakening of Civil Society. A General Overview. Barcelona: IEMED
  • Cinar, S. and Gocer, I. (2014). “The Reasons and Economic and Political Consequences of Arab Spring”. Khazar Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 17(2), 39-49.
  • Debeuf, K. (2017). “The Arab Spring Seven Years On: Failure Or Just The Beginning?”. Turkish Policy Quarterly, 16(3): 41-48.
  • Douglas, C., et al (2014). The Arab Uprisings: Causes, Consequences and Perspectives. Kennesaw: ICAT.
  • Eran, O. (2011). “The West Responds to the Arab Spring”. Strategic Assessment, 14(2), 15-28.
  • Gladwell, M. (2010). Small Change. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/10/04/smallchange- malcolm-gladwell, Accessed on 23.09.2019.
  • Howard, P. N., et al (2011). Opening Closed Regimes What Was the Role of Social Media During the Arab Spring?. Washington: PITPI.
  • Hroub, K. (2015). (Social) Media and Politics and the Arab Spring Moment. Barcelona: IEMED.
  • Idris, I. (2016). Analysis of the Arab Spring. Birmingham: GSDRC
  • Joffe, G. (2011). “The Arab Spring in North Africa: Origins and Prospects”. The Journal of North African Studies, 16, 507-532.
  • Kirkpatrick, D.D. (2019). “Arab Spring, Again? Nervous Autocrats Look Out Windows as Crowds Swell”. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/08/world/africa/arabspring- north-africa-protesters.html, Accessed on 21.09.2019.
  • Lamzouwaq, S. (2019). “Is 2019 a New Arab Spring, and Will It Succeed This Time?”. Moroccco World News. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2019/04/270778/2019- new-arab-spring/, Accessed on 06.08.2019.
  • Laz, E. (2014). “Sustainable Democracy and the Paradox of the Arab Spring: The Egypt Experience”. Alternatives: Turkish Journal Of International Relations, 13(1-2): 41-51.
  • Manfreda, P. (2019). “What Is the Arab Spring?”. Thought Co. https://www.thoughtco.com/definition-of-the-arab-spring-2353029, Accessed on 21.09.2019.
  • McQuaid, J. (2017). The Same, Yet Different: United States and Gulf State Interests in the Post-Arab Spring Maghreb. Arlington: CNA
  • Mulderig, M.C. (2013). An Uncertain Future: Youth Frustration and the Arab Spring. Boston: Boston University.
  • Mushtaq, A. and Afzal, M. (2017). “Arab Spring: Its Causes And Consequences”. JPUHS, 30(1), 1-10.
  • Rabindranath, M. and Kapil, S. (2015). “Social Media and the Arab Spring”. Media Watch, 6 (1):124-132.
  • Rozsa, E.N., et. al (2012). The Arab Spring: Its Impact on the Region and on the Middle East Conference. Frankfurt: APOME.
  • Saidin, M. (2018). “Rethinking the ‘Arab Spring’: The Root Causes of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution and Egyptian January 25 Revolution”. International Journal of Islamic Thought, 13(June), 69-80.
  • Salih, K. (2013). “The Roots And Causes Of The 2011 Arab Uprisings”. Arab Studies Quarterly, 35(2), 184-206.
  • Wolfsfeld, G., Segev, E. and Sheafer, T. (2013). “Social Media and the Arab Spring: Politics Comes First”. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 18(2), 115–137.
  • Steinberg, G. (2014). Leading the Counter-Revolution: Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring. Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
  • Travis, H. (2013). “Wargaming the “Arab Spring”: Predicting Likely Outcomes and Planning U.N. Responses”. Cornell International Law Journal, 46, 75-142.
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects International Politics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

İbrahim Karataş This is me

Publication Date November 25, 2022
Submission Date September 10, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 10 Issue: 53

Cite

APA Karataş, İ. (2022). The Arab Spring and The Possibility of the Success of Likely Revolutions. Düşünce Dünyasında Türkiz, 10(53), 129-149.