Determination and Estimation of Water Surface Change With Landsat Data and Machine Learning Algorithms; A Case Study in Lake Marmara

Year 2022, , 43 - 52, 30.12.2022

Can Cezayirlioğlu , Ramazan Çelik , Dilek Küçük Matcı

https://doi.org/10.51489/tuzal.1134783

Abstract

Water resources play an important role in the continuity of life. Therefore, it is necessary to map water resources and monitor changes. Remote sensing technologies provide important data in the monitoring, control and protection studies of water resources. These data are important for planners in studies related to water bodies. In this study, the change of the water surface of Marmara Lake, located in Gölmarmara district, 70 km from Manisa, was determined. In addition, an estimation study of the future spatial change of Marmara Lake was carried out. In this direction, the surface areas were obtained as a result of the analysis of the Landsat 7 images of the study area for the years 2002-2021 with the unsupervised classification method. In addition, precipitation, temperature and LST data of the area were obtained with the help of Google Earth Engine. RBF Regressor, Linear Regression, Additive Regression and MultiLayer Perceptron CS methods were used to make the most accurate estimation using the data obtained. Using the data between 2002 and 2012, the change between 2013 and 2021 was determined. When the results were examined, it was observed that the best estimation was obtained with MultiLayer Perceptron CS with R2= 0.91. As a result of the estimation study carried out for the years 2022 and 2026 with this method, it is predicted that the lake will shrink much more and reach 1.56 km2.

Keywords

Remote Sensing, Marmara Lake, Environment, Changes in Water Surface Area

Landsat Verileri ve Makine Öğrenme Algoritmaları ile Su Yüzeyi Değişiminin Belirlenmesi Ve Tahmini; Marmara Gölü Örneği

Abstract

Su kaynakları yaşamın devamlılığında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu nedenle su kaynaklarının haritalanması ve değişikliklerin izlenmesi gerekmektedir. Su kaynaklarının izlenmesi, kontrolü ve koruma çalışmalarında uzaktan algılama teknolojileri önemli veriler sağlamaktadır. Bu veriler, su kütleleri ile ilgili çalışmalarda planlayıcılar için önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Manisa’ya 70 km uzaklıkta bulunan Gölmarmara ilçesinde yer alan Marmara Gölü su yüzeyinin değişim analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ek olarak Marmara Gölünün gelecekteki alansal değişimine ait tahminleme çalışması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda yüzey alanları, çalışma alanına ait 2002-2021 yıllarına ait Landsat 7 görüntülerinin kontrolsüz sınıflandırma yöntemi ile analizi sonucunda elde edilmiştir. Bunun yanında alana ait yağış, sıcaklık ve arazi yüzey sıcaklığı (LST) verileri Google Earth Engine yardımıyla elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen veriler kullanılarak en doğru tahminlemeyi yapabilmek amacıyla Radyal Tabanlı Fonksiyon (RBF Regressor), Doğrusal Regresyon (Lineer Regression), Toplamsal Regresyon (Additive Regression) ve Çok Katmanlı Perceptron Sınıflandırıcı (MultiLayer Perceptron Classifier) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. 2002-2012 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılarak 2013 ve 2021 yılları arasındaki değişim belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar incelendiğinde en iyi tahminin R2= 0.91 ile Çok Katmanlı Perceptron CS ile elde edildiği gözlemlenmiştir. Bu yöntem ile 2022 ve 2026 yılları için gerçekleştirilen tahmin çalışması sonucunda gölün çok daha fazla küçüleceği ve 1.56 km2’ ye ulaşacağı öngörülmüştür.

Keywords

Uzaktan Algılama, Marmara Gölü, Su Yüzey Alanı Değişimi, Çevre.

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