Politik, Ekonomik ve Finansal Risklerin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2022, , 219 - 248, 25.10.2022

Bülent Yıldız , Orhan Şanlı

https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1124821

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için politik, ekonomik ve finansal risklerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) üzerindeki etkisi ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Aylık verilerin kullanıldığı analiz 1992:M1-2016:M12 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, uzun dönemde düşük politik ve ekonomik riskin (politik ve ekonomik istikrarın) DYY üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönem sonuçlarına göre ise finansal istikrar DYY’yi pozitif yönde etkilerken, politik ve ekonomik istikrar, beklentilerin aksine, DYY’yi negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Bu sonuçlar politik, ekonomik ve finansal istikrarın Türkiye örneğinde doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerini güçlü bir şekilde etkilediğini göstermektedir. 

Keywords

Politik Risk, Ekonomik Risk, Finansal Risk, DYY

The Effect of Political, Economic and Financial Risks on Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the effect of political, economic, and financial risks on foreign direct investments (FDI) was analyzed for Turkey using the ARDL bounds test approach. The analysis using monthly data covers the period of 1992:M1-2016:M12. According to the results of the study, found that low political and economic risk (political and economic stability) have a positive effect on FDI in the long run. According to the short-term results, while financial stability affects FDI positively, contrary to expectations, political and economic stability affects FDI negatively. These results show that political, economic, and financial stability strongly affects foreign direct investment inflows in Turkey. 

Keywords

Political Risk, Economic Risk, Financial Risk, FDI

References

• Aitken, B.J., Harrison, A.E. (1999). Do domestic firms benefit from foreign investment? Evidence from Venezuela, American Economic Review, 89(3): 605-618.
• Artan, S., & Hayaloğlu, P. (2015). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Kurumsal Belirleyicileri: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği. Ege Academic Review, 15(4).
• Asteriou, D. & Hall, S. G. (2007). Applied Econometrics (A modern approach using eviews and microfit revised edition). New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Balasubramanyam, V. N., Salisu, M., & Sapsford, D. (1996). Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and is Countries. The Economic Journal, 106(434), 92–105.
• Baltacı, N., Akyol, H., Kargı, B., & Beken, G. H. (2017). Ülke Riskinin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisinin İncelenmesi. III. IBANESS Kongreler Serisi, Edirne-Türkiye, 04-05 Mart, 862-867.
• Barrell, R., & Pain, N. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth Within Europe. The Economic Journal, 107(445), 1770–1786.
• Bekaert, G., Harvey, C., Lundblad, C.,& Siegel, S. (2014). Political risk spreads. J Int Bus Stud, 45, 471–493.
• Bosworth, B. P., Collins, S. M., & Reinhart, C. M. (1999). Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1999(1), 143–180.
• Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for Testing The Constancy of Regression Relations Over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37, 149-192.
• Buckley, P., Clegg, L., Cross, A., Liu, X., Voss, H., Zheng, P. (2007). The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment. J Int Bus Stud, 38, 499–518 .
• Buckley, P.J. and Casson, M. (1976). The Future of the Multinational Enterprise. Macmillan: London.
• Busse, M. & Hefeker, C. (2007). Political Risk, Insti¬tutions and Foreign Direct Investment. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(2): 397-415.
• Busse, M. (2004). Transnational corporations and repression of political rights and civil liberties: an empirical analysis. Kyklos, 57, 45-66.
• Del Bo, C. (2009). Foreign direct investment, exchange rate volatility and political risk. In ETSG Conference, September, Rome. https://www.etsg.org/ETSG2009/papers/delbo.pdf
• Diamonte, R, John M. L., Ross L. S. (1996). Political risk in emerging and developed markets. In: Levich R.M. (eds) Emerging Market Capital Flows. The New York University Salomon Center Series on Financial Markets and Institutions, vol 2. Springer, Boston, MA.
• Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
• Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057–72.
• Drabek, Z., & Payne, W. (2002). The Impact of Transparency on Foreign Direct Investment. Journal of Economic Integration, 17(4), 777–810.
• Dunning, J.H. (1993). Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy. Addison-Wesley: Wokingham.
• Dunning, J.H. (1998). Location and the Multinational enterprise: A Neglected Factor. Journal of International Business Studies, 29(1): 45-66.
• Egger, P., Winner, H. (2005). Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment. European Journal of Political Economy, 21 (4), 932-952.
• Enders W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series (4th edition). New York: Jonh Wiley.
• Erb, C. B., Harvey, C. R., Viskanta, T. E. (1998a). Country risk and global financial management. The Research Foundation of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts. https://www.cfainstitute.org/-/media/documents/book/rf-publication/1998/rf-v1998-n1-4464-pdf.ashx
• Erb, C. B., Harvey, C. R., Viskanta, T. E. (1998b). Political Risk, Economic Risk and Financial Risk. https://web.archive.org/web/20180720150443id_/https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Working_Papers/W23_Political_risk.pdf
• Fedderke, J. W., Romm, A. T. (2005). Growth impact and determinants of foreign direct investment into South Africa, 1956-2003. Economic Modelling, 23(5), 738-760.
• Findlay, R. 1978. Some Aspects of Technology Transfer and Direct Foreign Investment. American Economic Review, 68(2): 275-279.
• Gastanaga, V., Nugent, J., Pashamova, B. (1998). Host country reforms and FDI inflows: how much difference do they make?. World Development, 26 (7), 1299-1314.
• Goswami, G. G., Haider, S. (2014). Does political risk deter FDI inflow? An analytical approach using panel data and factor analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 41(2), 233-252.
• Granger C. W. J. & Newbold P. (1974). Spurios Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2 (1974), 111-120.
• Granger, C. J. V. (1969). Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
• Gujarati, D. N. (1999). Basic Econometrics. Mc Graw Hill, Literatür Yayıncılık, 3rd edition, İstanbul.
• Harms, P., Urpsrung, H.(2002). Do Civil and Political Repression Really Boodt Foreign Direct Invesmentz?. Economic Inpuiry, 40(4), 651-663.
• Harvey, C. R. (1995). Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets. The Review of Financial Studies, 8(3), 773–816.
• Hayakawa, K., Kimura, F., & Lee, H. H. (2013). How does country risk matter for foreign direct investment?. The Developing Economies, 51(1), 60-78.
• Henisz, W.J. (2000). The institutional environment for multinational investment, The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 16(2), 334–364.
• Jensen, N. (2003). Democratic governance and multinational corporations: political regimes and inflows of foreign direct investment. International Organization, 57 (3), 587-616.
• Jensen, N. (2008). Political Risk, Democratic Institutions, and Foreign Direct Investment. The Journal of Politics, 70(4), 1040–1052.
• Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52-2, 169-210.
• Jun, K., Singh, H. (1996). The determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries. Transnational Corporations, 5, 67-105.
• Kallianiotis J.N. (2013). Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investment. In: International Financial Transactions and Exchange Rates. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., Zoido-Lobaton, P. (1999). Governance matters. Policy Research Working Paper, vol. 2196, The World Bank, Washington DC.
• Kennedy, C. R. (1988). Political Risk Management; A Portfolio Planning Model. Business Horizons, 31(6), 26-33.
• Khan, M. M.., Akbar, M. I. (2013). The Impact of Political Risk on Foreign Direct Investment. International Journal of Economics and Finance,5(18), 147-156.
• Knudsen, H. (1974). Explaining the national propensity to expropriate: An ecological approach. Journal of International Business Studies, 5 (1): 51–71 86–89.
• Kobrin, S. (1979). Political Risk: A Review and Reconsideration. J Int Bus Stud, 10, 67–80.
• Kruja, A. & Dragusha, B. (2014). The Impact of Political Risk on Foreign Direct Investment. Iliria International Review, 2014/2. 73-92.
• Lim, S. (2007). Bilateral investment treaties, political risk and foreign direct investment. Asia Pacific Journal of Economics & Business, 11(1), 6-24.
• MacKinnon, J. (1991). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests. In: Engle, R. and Granger, C., Eds., Long Run Economic Relationships, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 267-276.
• Meyer, D. F., & Habanabakize, T. (2018). An analysis of the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), political risk and economic growth in South Africa. Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), 14(1232-2019-870), 777-788.
• Minor, M. S. (1994). The demise of expropriation as an instrument of LDC policy, 1980–1992. Journal of International Business Studies, 25 (1): 177–188.
• Narayan S., & Narayan P. K. (2004). Determinats of Demand of Fiji’s Exports: An Empirical Investigation. The Developing Economics, 17(1), 95-112.
• OECD, (2021). Foreign Direct Investment Statistics: Data, Analysis and Forecasts. https://www.oecd.org/investment/investment-policy/FDI-in-Figures-October-2021.pdf
• Oransay, G., & Faruk, M. İ. K. E. (2016). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Sosyo-Politik Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Analiz. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 8(14), 97-107.
• Osabutey, E. L. C., Okoro, C. (2015). Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The Case of the Nigerian Telecommunications Industry. Thunderbird International Business Review, 57(6), 417-429.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). BoundsTestingAproachestoThe Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of AppliedEconometrics, 16, 289-326.
• Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
• Phillips, P. C. B. (1987). Time Series Regression With A Unit Root. Econometrica, 55(2), 277-301.
• Prasad, E., Rogoff K., Wei SJ., Kose M.A. (2005). Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence. In: Tseng W., Cowen D. (eds) India’s and China’s Recent Experience with Reform and Growth. Procyclicality of Financial Systems in Asia. Palgrave Macmillan, London.
• Rafat, M., & Farahani, M. (2019). The country risks and foreign direct investment (FDI). Iranian Economic Review, 23(1), 235-260.
• Ramírez, M. (2000). Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico: A Cointegration Analysis. The Journal of Development Studies, 37(1), 138-162.
• Rappaport, J. (2000). How Does Openness to Capital Flows Affect Growth?. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Mimeo.
• Romer, P. (1993). Idea gaps and object gaps in economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 543-573.
• Schneider, H., Matei, I. (2010). Business Climate, Political Risk and FDI in Developing Countries: Evidence from Panel Data. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(5), 54-65.
• Sekkat, Khalid & Veganzones-Varoudakis, Marie-An¬ge Veganzones (2004). Trade and Foreign Exchange Li¬beralization, Investment Climate and FDI in the MENA Countries. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERDI, Clermont Ferrand, France and World Bank, Washington D.C., USA.
• Seyidoğlu, H. (2013). Uluslararası finans. Güzem Can Yayınları.
• T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yatırım Ofisi, (2021). Türkiye’de Uluslararası Doğrudan Yatırım. https://www.invest.gov.tr/tr/whyturkey/sayfalar/fdi-in-turkey.aspx
• The PRS Group, (2001). ICRG Methodology. https://lib-ebook.colorado.edu/govinfo/datasets/icrgmethodology.pdf
• Tobin, J., Ackerman, S. R. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment and the Business Environment in Developing Countries: The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties. Center for Law, Economics and Public Policy, Research Paper No. 293.
• Topal, M. H., Gül,S. Ö. (2016). The effect of country risk on foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data analysis for developing countries. Journal of Economics Library, 3(1), 141-155.
• Topaloğlu, E. E., & Korkmaz, T. (2021). Politik Riskin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Pay Piyasası Endeks Getirilerine Etkisi: G7 Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Verimlilik Dergisi, (1), 97-115.
• UNCTAD, (2021). Global foreign direct investment fell by 42% in 2020, outlook remains weak. https://unctad.org/news/global-foreign-direct-investment-fell-42-2020-outlook-remains-weak.
• Üçler, G. (2017). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar için Kurumların Önemi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, (627), 73-85.
• Wafo, G.L.K. (1998). Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investment. Faculty of Economics and Statistics University of Konstanz. World Bank, (2021). https://data.worldbank.org/
• Zivot E., & Wang J. (2003). Vector Autoregressive Models for Multivariate Time Series. In: Modeling Financial Time Series. Springer, New York.