Küresel Belirsizliğin Makroekonomik Etkileri: Seçilmiş Ülkeler için Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Year 2023, , 133 - 160, 04.10.2023

Arif Eser Güzel , Ali Acaravcı

https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1289756

Abstract

Dünya ekonomilerinin iktisadi, sosyal ve politik anlamda daha yüksek bir küreselleşme düzeyine ulaşması, ülkeleri küresel gelişmelere daha duyarlı hale getirmektedir. Bu süreç, ülkelerin kendi iç dinamiklerinden kaynaklanan belirsizliklere ek olarak küresel belirsizlik şoklarının yıkıcı etkilerine daha fazla maruz kalmalarına neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı küresel belirsizliğin temel makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkilerini farklı gelişme düzeyindeki ülkeler için karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmektedir. Küresel belirsizliğin makroekonomik etkileri G7, yükselen piyasa ekonomileri ve düşük gelirli ülkeler için araştırılmıştır. Kullanılan veri seti 1990-2019 dönemi yıllık verilerinden oluşmaktadır. CS-ARDL tahmin sonuçlarına göre küresel belirsizlik G7 ülkelerinde yatırım ve ihracatı negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Ancak bu etki kısa dönemlidir ve uzun dönemde anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamaktadır. Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri ve düşük gelirli ülkelerde ise çıktı düzeyi, yatırım ve ihracat değişkenleri uzun dönemde negatif yönde etkilenmektedir. Tüketim ve fiyat düzeyi üzerinde ise tüm ülke grupları için anlamlı bir etki bulunmamaktadır.

Keywords

Küresel belirsizlik, makroekonomik performans, tersinmezlik, CS-ARDL yöntemi

Macroeconomic Effects of Global Uncertainty: A Comparative Analysis for Selected Countries

Abstract

The fact that world economies have reached a higher level of globalization in economic, social, and political terms makes countries more sensitive to global events. This process causes countries to be more exposed to the destructive effects of global uncertainty shocks in addition to the uncertainties arising from their own internal dynamics. The aim of this study is to comparatively analyze the effects of global uncertainty on key macroeconomic variables for countries at different levels of development. The macroeconomic effects of global uncertainty are examined for the G7, emerging market economies and low-income countries. The data set used consists of annual data for the period 1990-2019. According to CS-ARDL estimation results, global uncertainty affects investment and export negatively in G7 countries. However, this effect is short-term and there is no significant relationship in the long-term. In emerging market economies and low-income countries, output level, investment and export variables are negatively affected in the long run. There is no significant effect on consumption and price level for all country groups.

Keywords

Global uncertainty, macroeconomic performance, irreversibility, CS-ARDL method

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