Avusturya Genel Seçimleri 2024: Rasyonel Seçmen Modeli ve Downs’un Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Avusturya’da Eylül 2024’te gerçekleşen genel seçimlerin sonuçlarını rasyonel seçim kuramı çerçevesinde değerlendirmektir. Popülist ve aşırı sağ FPÖ, 1990’lardan itibaren oy oranını artırarak 1999’daki genel seçimlerde sosyal demokratlar ve muhafazakârlarla benzer oy oranlarına ulaşarak ikini parti olmuş ve kurulan koalisyon hükümetinde küçük ortak olarak yer almıştır. Eylül 2024 genel seçimlerinde %28,8 oy oranıyla birinci parti olarak hükümet kurma yetkisi kazanan FPÖ, koalisyon hükümeti kuramamasından dolayı ana muhalefette konumlanmak zorunda kalmıştır. FPÖ’nün başarısının temel nedeni, seçim kampanyalarında “göçmen” ve “sosyal adalet” konularını öne çıkarması ve göçmenleri sosyal adaletsizliğin sebebi olarak göstermesidir. Seçmenlerin ekseriyeti, FPÖ’yü bu sorunları çözebilecek en güvenilir parti olarak görmektedir. Mevcut hükümetin göçmen ve sosyal adalet politikalarında başarısız olması durumunda, FPÖ’nün bir sonraki seçimlerde oy oranını artırması beklenmektedir. Seçimlerden sonraki koalisyon görüşmeleri ve akabinde kurulan koalisyon hükümetinin kamuoyu araştırmalarında seçmen nezdindeki desteğinin azaldığı gözlemlenmektedir. Bu gelişmeler, rasyonel seçmen modeli doğrultusunda analiz edildiğinde, bir sonraki genel seçimlerde FPÖ'nün oy oranını daha da artırabileceği ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu durumda, Avusturya’da ilk kez popülist ve aşırı sağ bir siyasi liderin Şansölye olma ihtimali artmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avusturya
• Genel seçimler
• Rasyonel seçim kuramı
• Popülist ve aşırı sağ

Austrian General Elections 2024: The Rational Voter Model and Downs’ Analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the results of the general elections held in Austria in September 2024 within the framework of rational choice theory. The far-right and populist FPÖ increased its share of the vote from the 1990s onwards, becoming the country's second largest party in 1999 alongside the social democrats and conservatives and joining the coalition government. In the September 2024 general elections, it won 28.8 per cent of the vote, becoming the largest party and gaining the authority to form a government. However, it was unable to form a coalition and continues as the main opposition party. The main reason for the FPÖ's success is that it highlighted the issues of immigration and social justice in its election campaigns and portrayed immigrants as the cause of social injustice. Voters see the FPÖ as the most reliable party to solve these problems. Should the current government fail in its immigration and social justice policies, the FPÖ is expected to increase its share of the vote in the next elections. Following the elections, coalition talks and the subsequent coalition government have seen a decline in public support in opinion polls. When analysed in line with the rational voter model, these developments indicate that the FPÖ will further increase its share of the vote in the next general election. In this case, the possibility of an extreme and populist political leader becoming Chancellor for the first time in Austria is increasing.

Keywords

• Austria
• General elections
• Rational voter model
• Populist radical right party

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