Romer Hipotezi’nin Geçerliliği: Yeni Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeler Örneği

Abstract

Enflasyon, para politikası yapıcıları açısından önemli sorun alanlarından biri olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Enflasyondaki artış, ekonomik belirsizliği yükselterek iktisadi büyümeyi olumsuz yönde etkileyebilmektedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcıların temel hedeflerinden biri, düşük ve istikrarlı enflasyon ortamında sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümeyi sağlamaktır. 1980’li yıllarla birlikte ivme kazanan küreselleşme süreci, ülke ekonomilerinde dış faktörlerin rolünü artırırken iç faktörlerin ise göreli olarak önemini azaltmıştır. Küreselleşmenin önemli sonuçlarından biri olan ticari açıklık, ülkelerin makroekonomik göstergeleri üzerinde belirleyici etkilere sahiptir. Bu bağlamda, enflasyon ile ticari açıklık arasındaki ilişki literatürde sıklıkla ele alınan konular arasında yer almaktadır. Söz konusu ilişkiyi açıklayan yaklaşımlardan biri Romer Hipotezi (RH) olup bu hipotez ticari açıklıktaki artışın enflasyonu düşürücü bir etkiye yol açacağını ileri sürmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ekonomik kırılganlıklara sahip Türkiye, Arjantin, Katar, Mısır ve Pakistan’dan oluşan “Yeni Kırılgan Beşli” ülkeler için 1994-2022 döneminde RH’nin geçerliliğini test etmektir. Bu doğrultuda uygulanan Durbin-Hausman ve Panel ECM eşbütünleşme testlerinden elde edilen bulgular, ticari açıklık ile enflasyon arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, incelenen dönem itibarıyla Yeni Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerde RH’nin geçerli olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Enflasyon
• Ticari açıklık
• Romer hipotezi
• Yeni kırılgan beşli ülkeler

Validity of the Romer Hypothesis: The Case of the New Fragile Five Countries

Abstract

Inflation stands out as one of the important problem areas for monetary policymakers. An increase in inflation can adversely impact economic growth by increasing economic uncertainty. Hence, one of the main goals of policymakers is to ensure sustainable economic growth in a low and stable inflation environment. The process of globalization, which has accelerated since the 1980s, has increased the role of external factors in national economies while relatively reducing the importance of internal factors. Trade openness, which is one of the significant consequences of globalization, has determinant effects on countries’ macroeconomic indicators. In this respect, the relationship between inflation and trade openness is among the subjects frequently addressed in the literature. The Romer Hypothesis (RH) is one of the approaches explaining the aforesaid relationship, and this hypothesis suggests that an increase in trade openness will lead to a deflationary effect. The purpose of the current study is to test the validity of the RH for the "New Fragile Five" countries, consisting of Türkiye, Argentina, Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan, which have economic vulnerabilities, during the period between 1994 and 2022. The findings obtained from the Durbin-Hausman and panel ECM cointegration tests showed that there was no statistically significant relationship between trade openness and inflation. The results revealed that the RH was not valid in the New Fragile Five countries during the studied period.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Trade openness
• Romer hypothesis
• New fragile five

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