Kamu Borç Yönetimi ve Vade Yapısına İlişkin Teorik Yaklaşımlar

Year 2018, , 97 - 117, 21.10.2018

Sevi Dokuzoğlu

https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.444227

Abstract

Bütçe açıklarının
birçok ülke açısından sürekli hale gelmesi ile birlikte maliye politikası
teorilerine olan ilgi artmıştır. Benzer şekilde,  bütçe açıklarının finansmanında kamu borcunun
kullanılmasının yaratacağı sonuçlar iktisat literatüründe önemli bir alan
oluşturmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, son yıllarda borç yönetimine dair teorilerin
dâhil edildiği optimal maliye ve para politikası modellerine literatürde sıkça
yer verilmiştir. Kamu borcunun vadesi ise borç yönetimi açısından en önemli
araçlardan biridir. 2007-2008 Küresel Finansal Krizi de dâhil olmak üzere hemen
hemen tüm mali krizlerde kamu borcunun vadesi kilit değişken haline gelmiş;
vade yapısının borç sürdürülebilirliğine ilişkin analizlerde daha sık yer
alması gerekliliği ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışma ile kamu borcunun vadesinin
maliye ve para politikası açısından önemini ele alan teorik yaklaşımlara
ilişkin genel bir sınıflandırma ortaya koyulmuştur. Ayrıca söz konusu
yaklaşımları temel alan ampirik çalışmalara da yer verilmiştir. Çalışmanın kamu
borç yönetimi ve optimal vade yapısı ile ilişkili benzer çalışmalara katkı
sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir. 

Keywords

Kamu Borcu, Optimal Maliye Politikası, Borç Yönetimi, Vade

Theoretical Approaches to Government Debt Management and Maturity Structure

Abstract

Interest in fiscal policy theories has increased with
the permanent budget deficits prevailed in many countries. Similarly, the
consequences of using public debt in financing budget deficits also have an
important area in the economic literature and within this framework, over the
last few years optimal fiscal policy models which include theories of debt
management frequently taking place in the literature. The maturity structure of
public debt is the one of the most important variables from the view of debt
management. In almost all financial crises, including the 2007-2008 Global
Financial Crisis, the debt-to-maturity structure has become a key variable and
the necessity of maturity structure to be included in more frequently in the
analysis of debt sustainability has arisen. In this study, a classification of
the theoretical approaches that deal with importance of the maturity structure
of public debt in terms of fiscal and monetary policy has been put forward. In
addition, empirical studies based on the aforementioned approaches have been
included. It is thought that the study will contribute to similar studies
related to public debt management and optimal maturity structure.

Keywords

Public Debt, Optimal Fiscal Policy, Debt Management

References

• Aiyagari, R. S., Marcet, A., Sargent, T. J. ve Seppala, J. (2002). Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt. Journal of Political Economy, 110(6), 1220-1254.
• Alesina, A., De Broeck, M., Prati, A. ve Tabellini, G. (1992). Default Risk on Government Debt in OECD Countries. Economic Policy, 7(15), 427-463.
• Alesina, A., Prati, A. ve Tabellini, G. (1990). Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and A Case Study of Italy. R. Dornbusch ve M. Draghi (Eds) içinde, Public Debt Management: Theory and History (s. 94-121). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Andersen, T. M. ve Dogonowski, R. R. (2004). What Should Optimal Income Taxes Smooth? Journal of Public Economic Theory, 6(3), 491-507.
• Angeletos, G.-M. (2001). Essays in Fiscal Policy, Growth, and Fluctuations. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi. Cambridge: Harvard University.
• Angeletos, G.-M. (2002). Fiscal Policy With Noncontingent Debt and The Optimal Maturity Structure. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(3), 1105-1131.
• Arbeláez, M., Roubini, N. ve Guerra, M. (2003). Interactions between Public Debt Management and Debt Dynamics and Sustainability: Theory and Application to Colombia (No:002908). Bogotá: Fedesarrollo.
• Bacchetta, P., Perazzi, E. ve Van Wincoop, E. (2018). Self-fulfilling Debt Crises: What Can Monetary Policy Do? Journal of International Economics, 110, 119-134.
• Baccihocchi, E. ve Missale, A. (2005). Managing Debt Stability (Working Paper No:2009-053). CESifo.
• Barro, R. (1979). On the Determination of the Public Debt. Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-971.
• Barro, R. (1995). Optimal debt management (Working Paper No: w5327) . National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Barro, R. (1999, November). Notes on Optimal Debt Management. Journal of Applied Economics, 2, 281-289.
• Bernaschi, M., Missale, A. ve Vergni, D. (2009). Should Governments Minimize Debt Service Cost and Risk? A Closer Look at the Debt Strategy : Simulation Approach (Working Paper No:2009-053). Universita Degli Studi Di Milano.
• Berndt, A., Lustig, H. ve Yeltekin, Ş. (2012). How Does The US Government Finance Fiscal Shocks? American Economic Journal, 4(1), 69-104.
• Blackburn, K. ve Christensen, M. (1989). Monetary Policy and Policy Credibility: Theories and Evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 27(1), 1- 45.
• Bohn, H. (1988). Why do we have nominal government debt? Journal of Monetary Economics, 21(1), 127-140.
• Bohn, H. (1990). Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments. American Economic Review, 80(5), 1217-1230.
• Buera, F. ve Nicolini, J. P. (2004). Optimal Maturity of Government Debt without State Contingent Bonds. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(3), 531-554.
• Buiter, W. H., Persson, T. ve Minford, P. (1985). A Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits. Economic Policy, 1(1), 13-79.
• Calvo, G. A. (1978). On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy. Econometrica, 46(6), 1411-1428.
• Calvo, G. A. (1988). Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations. The American Economic Review, 78(4), 647-661.
• Calvo, G. A. ve Guidotti, P. E. (1989). Indexation and Maturity of Government Bonds: A Simple Model (Working Paper No: 89/46). International Monetary Fund.
• Calvo, G. A. ve Guidotti, P. E. (1990a). Management of the Nominal Public Debt: Theory and Applications (Working Paper No: 90/115). International Monetary Fund.
• Calvo, G. A. ve Guidotti, P. E. (1990b). Credibility and Nominal Debt: Exploring the Role of Maturity in Managing Inflation. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 37(3), 612-635.
• Calvo, G. A. ve Guidotti, P. E. (1990c). Indexation and Maturity of Government Bonds: An Explanatory Model. R. Dornbusch ve M. Draghi (Eds) içinde, Public Debt Management: Theory and History (s. 52-86). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Calvo, G. A. ve Guidotti, P. E. (1992). Optimal Maturity of Nominal Government Debt: An Infinite-Horizon Model. International Economic Review, 33(4), 895-919.
• Chari, V. V. (1988). Time Consistency and Optimal Policy Design. Quarterly Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 12(4), 17-31.
• Chari, V. V. ve Kehoe, P. J. (1999). Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy. J. B. Taylor ve M. Woodford (Eds) içinde, Handbook of Macroeconomics (Cilt 1, s. 1671-1745). Elsevier.
• Chari, V. V., Christiano, L. J. ve Kehoe, P. J. (1991). Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23(3), 519-539.
• Cohen, D. ve Villemot, S. (2015). Endogenous Debt Crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 51, 337-369.
• Cole, H. L. ve Kehoe, T. J. (1996). A Self-Fulfilling Model of Mexico’s 1994- 1995 Debt Crisis. Journal of International Economics, 41(3-4), 309-330.Cole, H. L. ve Kehoe, T. J. (2000). Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises. The Review of Economic Studies, 67(1), 91-116.
• De Fontenay, P., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. ve Pill, H. (1995). The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Public Debt Management (Working Paper No:95/21). International Monetary Fund.
• De Haan, J., Sikken, B. J. ve Hilder, A. (1995). On the Relationship Between the Debt Ratio and Debt Maturity. Applied Economics Letters, 2(12), 484-486.
• Debortoli, D., Nunes, R. ve Yared, P. (2017). Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(1), 55–102.Diamond, D. W. ve Dybvig, P. H. (1983). Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), 401-419.
• Drudi, F. ve Giordano, R. (2004). Default Risk and Optimal Debt Management. Journal of Banking ve Finance, 24(6), 861-891.
• Edwards, S. ve Tabellini, G. (1991). Explaining Fiscal Policies and Inflation in Developing Countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 10, S16-S48.
• Falcetti, E. ve Missale, A. (2002). Public Debt Indexation and Denomination With an Independent Central Bank. European Economic Review, 46(10), 1825-1850.
• Faraglia, E., Marcet, A. ve Scott, A. (2008). Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management In OECD Economies. The Economic Journal, 118(527), 363-386.
• Faraglia, E., Marcet, A., Oikonomou, R. ve Scott, A. (2013). The Impact on Debt Levels and Debt Maturity on Inflation. The Economic Journal, 123(566), F164–F192.
• Faraglia, E., Marcet, A., Oikonomou, R. ve Scott, A. (2014). Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It (No:10281). CEPR Discussion Paper.
• Giavazzi, F. ve Missale, A. (2005). Public Debt Management in Brazil. F. Giavazzi, I. Goldfajn ve S. Herrera (Eds) içinde, Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999 to 2003 (s. 117-157). Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Giavazzi, F. ve Pagano, M. (1990). Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management. R. Dornbusch ve M. Draghi (Eds) içinde, Public Debt Management: Theory and History (s. 125-146). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Golosov, M. ve Tsyvinski, A. (2010). Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy (with Commitment). S. N. Durlauf ve L. E. Blume (Eds) içinde, Monetary Economics (s. 277-282). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Greenwood, R., Hanson, S., Rudolph, J. ve Summers, L. (2016). The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt. D. Wessel (Ed.) içinde, The $13 Trillion Question : How America Manages Its Debt (s. 1-43). Washington: Brookings Instution Press.
• Gros, D. (2012). A Simple Model of Multiple Equilibria and Default (Working Document No: 366). Centre for European Policy Studies. Brussels.
• Holler, J. (2013). Funding Strategies of Sovereign Debt Management: A Risk Focus. Monetary Policy ve the Economy(2), 51-74.
• Jensen, H. (1992). Time Inconsistency Problems and Commitments of Monetary and Fiscal Policies. Journal of Economics, 56(3), 247-266.
• Kydland, F. ve Prescott, E. (1977). Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473- 491.
• Leong, D. (1999). Debt Management- Theory and Practice. London: UK Treasury.
• Lucas, R. E. (1986). Principles of Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 17(1), 117-134.
• Lucas, R. E. ve Stokey, N. L. (1983). Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy In An Economy Without Capital. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(1), 55-93.
• Lustig, H., Sleet, C. ve Yeltekin, Ş. (2008). Fiscal Hedging with Nominal Assets. Journal of Monetary Economics, 55(4), 710-727.
• Marcet, A. ve Scott, A. (2009). Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and The Structure of Bond Markets. Journal of Economic Theory, 144(2), 473–501.
• Missale, A. (1997). Managing the Public Debt: The Optimal Taxation Approach. Journal of Economic Surveys, 11(3), 235-265.
• Missale, A. (1999). Public Debt Management. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Missale, A. (2012). Sovereign Debt Management and Fiscal Vulnerabilities. BIS Papers.
• Missale, A. ve Blanchard, O. J. (1994). The Debt Burden and Debt Maturity. The American Economic Review, 84(1), 309-319.
• Nosbusch, Y. (2008). Interest Costs and the Optimal Maturity Structure Of Government Debt. The Economic Journal, 118(527), 477-498.
• Özatay, F. (1996). The Lessons from the 1994 Crisis in Turkey: Public Debt (Mis)management and Confidence Crisis. Yapi Kredi Economic Review, 7(1), 21-28.
• Persson, M. (2016). Debts, Deficits and Multiple Equilibria: A New Role for ECB Monetary Policy? CESifo Forum, 17(1), 63-71.
• Persson, M., Persson, T. ve Svensson, L. E. (1987). Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Econometrica, 55(6), 1419-1431.
• Persson, M., Persson, T. ve Svensson, L. E. (2006). Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: A Solution. Econometrica, 74(1), 193-212.
• Ramsey, F. P. (1927). A Contribution to the Theory of Taxation. The Economic Journal, 37(145), 47-61.
• Wolswijk, G. ve De Haan, J. (2005). Government Debt Management in the Euro Area: Recent Theoretical Developments and Changes in Practices. Frankfurt: European Central Bank.
• Zhu, X. (1992). Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model. Journal of Economic Theory, 58(2), 250-289.