Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Spekülatif Balon Varlığının Ampirik İncelenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye pay piyasasında işlem gören 24 sektör ve gösterge endeksleri için, genelleştirilmiş eküs Augmented – Dickey – Fuller (GSADF) testi ile rasyonel spekülatif balonların varlığı analiz edilmiştir. İkinci aşamada, rasyonel spekülatif balonlarının görüldüğü tarihlere kukla değişken tanımlanarak balon oluşumunu etkileyen faktörler, logit modeli kullanılarak tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye pay piyasasında  balon oluşma olasığını en fazla etkileyen değişkenlerin uluslararası portföy yatırımları (FPI), ülke kredi risk primi (CDS) ve uluslararası yatırımcıların risk algısı (VIX ) olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Rasyonel balonlar,GSADF testi,Lojistik regresyon,BİST,Türkiye

An Empirical Investigation of Bubble in the Turkish Stock Market

Öz

In this paper, twenty – four sectoral indices of stock prices operated in the Turkish stock market are analyzed for evidence of rational speculative bubbles using the generalized supremum Augmented – Dickey – Fuller (GSADF) test. Then, detecting rational speculative bubbles, we define a dummy variable to capture the bubble dates and ran the logit model to determine the factors that influence bubble formation. Empirical results depict that Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Credit Default Swap Spreads (CDS), and Volatility Index (VIX) are the important variables that cause the probability of bubble formation in the Turkish stock market.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rational bubble,GSADF test,Logistic regression,BIST,Turkey

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