The Complexity Effect in U.S.-Turkey Relations: The Restructuring of the Middle East Regional Security

Year 2022, , 21 - 35, 02.06.2022

Devrim Şahin Ahmet Sözen

https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1115070

Abstract

This paper proposes a discussion of its core theoretical argument that the international order is more complex than the theories generated by traditionalist state-centric approaches and critical approaches, including the regional security complex approach. The complexity approach highlights the sensitive dependency of complex systems on the nonlinear feedback loops and dynamic interactions by which the longer term reactions to the behavior of actors could set off actions-reaction spirals. This path dependency is evident in the erosion of U.S.-Turkey relations which is a cause and a consequence of the realignment in the international system and the Middle East regional system.

Keywords

Copenhagen School, path dependence, feedback loops, balance of power system, YPG

ABD-Türkiye İlişkilerinde Karmaşıklık Etkisi: Orta Doğu Bölgesel Güvenliğinin Yeniden Yapılandırılması

Abstract

Bu makale uluslararası düzenin, bölgesel güvenlik kompleksi yaklaşımı da dahil olmak üzere, gelenekselci devlet merkezli yaklaşımlar ve eleştirel yaklaşımlar tarafından üretilen teorilerden daha karmaşık olduğuna dair temel teorik argümanının bir tartışmasını sunmaktadır. Karmaşıklık yaklaşımı karmaşık sistemlerin, aktörlerin davranışı sonucu uzun vadede ortaya çıkan reaksiyonların etki-tepki sarmalları başlatabileceği, doğrusal olmayan geribildirim döngülerinine ve dinamik etkileşimlere olan hassas bağımlılığını vurgulamaktadır. Bu patika bağımlılığı, uluslararası sistemdeki ve Orta Doğu bölgesel sistemindeki taban kaymasının bir nedeni ve sonucu olan ABD-Türkiye ilişkilerinin erozyonunda açıkça görülmektedir.

Keywords

Kopenhag Okulu, patika bağımlılığı, geribildirim döngüleri, güç dengesi sistemi, YPG

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