Türkiye’de Sanayi ve Tarım Sektörlerinde Seragazı Emisyonlarının Belirleyicileri: İndeks Ayrıştırma Analizi

Year 2017, Special Issue: The Paris Climate Summit and its Repercussions, 175 - 195, 01.06.2017

Mustafa Özçağ Burcu Yılmaz , Emrah Sofuoğlu

https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.513242

Cited By: 4

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1990-2014 döneminde sanayi ve tarım sektörlerindeki seragazı emisyonlarında ortaya çıkan değişim LMDI yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Söz konusu değişim, emisyonu etkileyen faktörler olarak literatürde genel kabul görmüş dört faktöre (emisyon-faktör etkisi, yoğunluk etkisi, yapısal etki ve faaliyet etkileri) ayrıştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, sanayi ve tarım sektörlerinde seragazı emisyonundaki değişimin temel belirleyicisinin enerji yoğunluğu etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan, Türkiye’de 1990-2010 döneminde ekonomik büyüme ve seragazı emisyonları arasında aynı yönlü gerçekleşen bir değişmenin varlığı görülürken, 2010 yılından itibaren ekonomik büyüme rakamlarında oluşan artış oranı seragazı emisyonlarında meydana gelen artış oranından daha yüksek olmuş ve böylece değişkenler arasında ayrışma meydana gelmiştir.

Keywords

Seragazı Emisyonları, Indeks Ayrıştırma Analizi, LMDI, İklim Değişikliği, Türkiye

Determinants of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Industry and Agricultural Sectors in Turkey: Index Decomposition Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze greenhouse gas emissions changes in industry and agricultural sectors by utilizing LMDI method over the period of 1990-2014 in Turkey. For this purpose, these changes have been decomposed to four factors (emissions-factor effect, intensity effect, structural effect and activity effect) generally accepted in the literature as factors affecting emissions. Analysis findings indicate that key determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in industry and agricultural sectors are energy intensity effect. On the other hand, according to the Decoupling Analyse, there is a same direction change between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey between the years of 1990- 2010. After 2010, the rate of increase occuring in the economic growth is higher than the rate of increase occuring in greenhouse gas emissions, and thus, decouplin in seen between the variables. 

Keywords

Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Index Decomposition Analysis, LMDI, Climate Change, Turkey

References

• Akbostancı, Elif, Gül İpek Tunç ve Serap Türüt Aşık. “CO2 Emissions of Turkish Manufacturing Industry: A Decomposition Analysis”, Applied Energy, Cilt 88, 2011, s.2273-2278.
• Andreoni, Valeria ve Stefano Galmarini. “Decoupling Economic Growth From Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Decomposition Analysis of Italian Energy Consumption”, Energy, Cilt 44, 2012, s.682-691.
• Ang, Beng W. “Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy: Which is preferred method”, Energy Policy, Cilt 32, 2004, s.1131-1139.
• Ang, Beng W. “The LMDI Approach to Decomposition Analysis: A Practical Guide”, Energy Policy, Cilt 33, 2005, s.867-871.
• Ang, Beng W. ve Felix. Liu, “A New Energy Decomposition Method: Perfect in Decomposition and Consistent in Aggregation”, Energy, Cilt 26, 2001, s.537-548.
• Ang, Beng W., Fusuo Zhang ve Ki-Hong Choi, “Factorizing Changes in Energy and Environmental Indicators through Decomposition”, Energy, Cilt 23, Sayı 6, 1998, s.489-495.
• Ang, Beng W. ve Ki-Hong Choi, “Decomposition of Aggregate Energy and Gas Emission Intensities for Industry: A Refined Divisia Index Method”, The Energy Journal, Cilt 18, Sayı 3, 1997, s.59-73.
• Boden, Thomas A. Gregg Marland ve Robert J. Andres. “Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center”, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A, doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010, 2010.
• Brundtland, Gro Harlem “Our Common Future”, World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford, Oxford University Press,1987.
• Casler, Stephen D. ve Adam Rose. “Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the US Ecomomy: A Structural Decomposition Analysis”, Environmental and Resource Economics, Cilt 11, Sayı 3-4, 1998, s.349-363.
• De Freitas, Luciano Charlita ve Shinji Kaneko. “Decomposition of CO2 Emissions Change From Energy Consumption in Brazil: Challenges and Policy Implications”, Energy Policy, Cilt 39, 2011, s.1495-1504.
• Ediger, Volkan Ş. ve Özkan Havuz. “Examining the Sectoral Energy Use in Turkish Economy (1980–2000) with the help of Decomposition Analysis”, Energy Conversion and Management, Cilt 47, Sayı 6, 2006, s.732-745.
• Enerdata. “Energy Efficiency Indicators”, https://www.wec-indicators.enerdata.eu/xls/Turkey.xls, 2015, (Erişim Tarihi 27 Şubat 2016).
• González, P. Fernández, Manuel Landajo ve Maria Jose Presno. “Tracking European Union CO2 emissions through LMDI (logarithmic-mean Divisia index) decomposition. The activity revaluation approach”, Energy, Cilt 73, 2014, s.741-750.
• Hamilton, Clive ve Turton, Hal. “Determinants of emissions growth in OECD countries”, Energy Policy, Cilt 20, Sayı 1, 2002, s.63-71.
• Handrich, Lars vd. “Turning point: Decoupling Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Economic Growth”, Heinrich Böll Stiftung, 2015.
• Hoekstra, Rutger ve Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh, “Comparing structural and index decomposition analysis”, Energy Economics, Cilt 25, 2003, s.39-64.
• IEA, Energy Statistics, http://www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/report/?country=TURKEY&product=Indicators&year=2013, (Erişim Tarihi 23 Nisan 2016).
• Iwata, Hiroki, Okada, Keisuke ve Samreth, Sovannroeun. “Empirical study on the determinants of CO2 emissions: Evidence from OECD countries”, Applied Economics, Cilt 44, Sayı 27, 2012, s.3513-3519.
• Karakaya, Etem ve Mustafa Özçağ. “Türkiye Açısından Kyoto Protokolü’nün Değerlendirilmesi ve Ayrıştırma (Decomposition) Yöntemi İle CO2 Emisyonu Belirleyicilerinin Analizi”, VII. ODTÜ İktisat Konferansı, Ankara. 2003.
• Li, Ying et.al. “Evaluating Urban Sustainability Potential Based on Material Flow Analysis of Inputs and Outputs: A Case Study in Jinchang City, China”, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Cilt 110, 2016.
• OECD. “Indicators to Measure Decoupling of Environmental Pressure From Economic Growth”, Sustainable development, SG/SD, 1, 2002.
• Özçağ, Mustafa. “Türkiye’de Yenilenebilir Enerji Sektöründeki Sübvansiyonların Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri İle Karşılaştırılması”, International Congress on Economics and Business, 10-14 June 2015, Gostivar, MACEDONIA.
• Paul, Shyamal ve Rabindra Nath Bhattacharya. “CO2 Emissions from energy use in India: A decomposion Analysis”, Energy Policy, Cilt 32, 2004, s.585-593.
• Peng, Yuan ve Shi, Cheng. “Determinants of Carbon Emissions Growth in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis”, Energy Procedia, Cilt 5, 2011, s.169-175
• Robaina-Alves, Margarita, Victor Moutinho ve Rui Costa. “Change in Energy-related CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) Emissions in Portuguese Tourism: A Decomposition Analysis from 2000 to 2008”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Cilt 111, 2016, s.520-528.
• Sharma, Susan Sunila. “Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries”, Applied Energy, Cilt 88, Sayı 1, 2011, s.376-382
• Shi, Anqing. “Population Growth and Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions”, IUSSP Conference in Brazil, Session, 18, 2001.
• Torvanger, Asbjørn. “Manufacturing Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Nine OECD Countries, 1973-87: A Divisia Index Decomposition to Changes in Fuel Mix, Emission Coefficients, Industry Structure, Energy Intensities and International Structure”, Energy Economics, Cilt 13, Sayı 3, 1991, s.168-186.
• Tol, Richard S. J., Stephen W. Pacala ve Robert H. Socolow, “Understanding Long-Term Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the USA”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Cilt 31, 2009, s.425-445.
• Tunç, İpek G., Serap Türüt Aşık ve Elif Akbostancı, “A Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Energy Use: Turkish Case”, Energy Policy, Cilt 37, 2009, s.4689-4699.
• Yang, Hao-Yen. “Trade Liberalization and Pollution: a General Equilibrium Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Taiwan”, Economic Modelling, Cilt 18, 2001, s.435-454.
• Wietze, Lise. “Decomposition of CO2 Emissions over 1980-2003 in Turkey”, FEEM Working Paper No, 24.05, 2005.