Tunus’ta Demokratikleşme ve Elit Teorisi
Year 2017,
Volume: 14 Issue: 55, 75 - 92, 01.09.2017
M. Hüseyin Mercan
M. Tahir Kılavuz
Abstract
Bu çalışma Devlet Başkanı Zeynel Abidin Bin Ali’nin ülkesini terk ettiği 14 Ocak 201’den bu yana Tunus’un demokratikleşme ve geçiş sürecine odaklanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda makale, Arap ayaklanmalarının ilk hareket noktası olan Tunus’un devrim sonrası normalleşme ve demokratikleşme sürecini, elit teorisinin kavramsal yaklaşımıyla ele almaktadır. Teori bir ülkedeki mevcut rejim ve muhalefetin ılımlı elitlerinin geçiş sürecinde uyumlu çalışmaları halinde orada güçlü demokratikleşmenin olacağını belirtmektedir. Bu varsayımdan hareketle makale, Tunus’taki rejimi ve muhalif kesimi temsil eden ılımlı başat aktörlerin izlediği politikalar yoluyla Tunus’un bölgedeki diğer ülkelere nazaran nasıl daha başarılı bir geçiş süreci izlediği sorusuna cevap aramaktadır.
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- Jung, Courtney, ve Ian Shapiro. “South Africa’s Negotiated Transition: Democracy, Opposition and the New Constitutional Order”. Politics and Society, Cilt 23, No 3, 1995, s. 269–308.
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- Linz, Juan J. The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Crisis, Breakdown and Reequilibration. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978.
- Linz, Juan J., ve Alfred C. Stepan. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996.
- Lipset, Seymour Martin. “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy”. American Political Science Review, Cilt 53, No 1, 1959, s. 69–105.
- Marks, Monica. “What Did Tunisia’s Nobel Laureates Actually Achieve?” The Washington Post, 27 Ekim 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/10/27/what-did-tunisias-nobel-laureates-actually-achieve/.
- McFaul, Michael. “The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World”. World Politics, Cilt 54, No 2, 2002, s. 212–44.
- Medeni, Tevfik el-. Sukut ed-Devle el-Bulusiyye fi Tunus. Beyrut: ed-Dar el-Arabiyye li’l Ulum Naşirun, 2011.
- “Men Katele Şükrü Bil’ayd”. Al Jazeera Arabiyye, 2013. http://www.aljazeera.net/home/Getpage/0353e88a-286d-4266-82c6-6094179ea26d/912c3784-4691-4e6f-a79c-e9c3d4ae52bd.
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- Ware, L. B. “The Role of the Tunisian Military in the Post-Bourgiba Era”. Middle East Journal, Cilt 39, No 1, 1985, s. 27–47.
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Democratization in Tunisia and Elite Theory
Year 2017,
Volume: 14 Issue: 55, 75 - 92, 01.09.2017
M. Hüseyin Mercan
M. Tahir Kılavuz
Abstract
This study focuses on democratization process in Tunisia since January 14th, 2011, the date President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali left the country. The article examines democratization and normalization process of Tunisia as a starting point of the Arab Uprisings through the conceptual framework of elite choice theory. The theory postulates that if softliner regime and opposition elites cooperate, democratization process succeeds. Based upon this assumption, this paper seeks to answer how it was possible for Tunisia to follow a more successful transition path when compared to the other countries in the region through the steps and policies implemented by the representatives of the leading softliner actors in the Tunisian regime and opposition.
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- Bermeo, Nancy. “Myths of Moderation: Confrontation and Conflict during Democratic Transitions”. Comparative Politics, Cilt 29, No 3, 1997, s. 305–22.
- Boix, Carles, ve Susan Stokes. “Endogenous Democratization”. World Politics, Cilt 55, No 4, 2003, s. 517–49.
- Bova, Russell. “Political Dynamics of the Post-Communist Transition: A Comparative Perspective”. World Politics, Cilt 44, No 1, 1991, s. 113–38.
- Brinks, Daniel, ve Michael Coppedge. “Diffusion Is No Illusion”. Comparative Political Studies, Cilt 39, No 4, 2006, s. 463–89.
- Brownlee, Jason, Tarek Masoud, ve Andrew Reynolds. The Arab Spring: Pathways of Repression and Reform. New York, NY, Oxford University Press, 2015.
- Brumberg, Daniel. “The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy”. Journal of Democracy, Cilt 13, No 4, 2002, s. 56–68.
- Carothers, Thomas. “The End of the Transition Paradigm”. Journal of Democracy, Cilt 13, No 1, 2002, s. 5–21.
- Chabbi, Mourad. “Armée et transition démocratique en Tunisie”. Politique étrangère, No 1, 2015, s. 103–13.
- Chouikha, Larbi, ve Éric Gobe. Histoire de la Tunisie depuis l’indépendance. Paris, La Découverte, 2015.
- Chrisafis, Angelique, ve Ian Black. “Tunisia elections winner: ‘We’re hardly the Freemasons, we’re a modern party’”. The Guardian, 25 Ekim 2011. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/oct/25/tunisia-elections-islamist-party-winner.
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- Diamond, Larry. “Thinking About Hybrid Regimes”. Journal of Democracy, Cilt 13, No 2, 2002, s. 21–35.
- Di Palma, Giuseppe. To Craft Democracies: An Essay on Democratic Transitions. Berkeley, University of California Press, 1990.
- Dot-Pouillard, Nicolas. “Se réveiller conservateur, s’endormir progressiste : le dialogue entre mouvements de gauche et islamistes en Tunisie”. Les carnets de l’Iremam, 23 Ekim 2015. http://iremam.hypotheses.org/6090.
- Droz-Vincent, Philippe. “The Military amidst Uprisings and Transitions in the Arab World”. Içinde The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World, editör Fawaz A. Gerges. New York, Cambridge University Press, 2013.
- “Düstur el-Cumhuriyye et-Tunusiyye, Madde 2”, 2014. http://www.marsad.tn/uploads/documents/TnConstit_final_1.pdf.
- El Alaoui, Hicham Ben Abdallah. “Furas Faitah: Hal Tamtaddu al-thawarat li-al-Anzima al-Malakiyya fi al-Am al-Thalith li-al-Rabi’ al-Arabi”. al-Markaz al-Iqlimi li-ad-Diraast al-Istritajiyya, 02 Ocak 2013.
- “El-İslam len Yeşkel Masdar et-Teşri’ el-Evvel fi Düstur Tunis”. Al Arabiya, 27 Mart 2012. http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/27/203610.html.
- “El-Kanun el-Esasi el-İntihabi”. Erişim 09 Kasım 2015.
- “Et-Tevzi’ Hasb’il İntima el-Hizbi, el-Cumhuriyye et-Tunusiyye Meclis Nevvab eş-Şa’bi”. Meclis Nüvvab eş-Şa’b, 2014. http://www.anc.tn/site/main/AR/docs/compos_partis.jsp.
- “Final Tunisian election results announced”. Al Jazeera, 14 Kasım 2011. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2011/11/20111114171420907168.html.
- Gobe, Éric, ve Larbi Chouikha. “La Tunisie politique en 2013 : de la bipolarisation idéologique au « consensus constitutionnel » ?” L’Année du Maghreb, No 11, 2014, s. 301–22.
- “Hukume İ’tilafiyye fi Tunis bi Muşareke en-Nahda”. Al Jazeera Arabiyye, 2014. http://www.aljazeera.net/home/Getpage/f6451603-4dff-4ca1-9c10-122741d17432/009a3bac-be0e-4bda-9616-5f67ad7227b0.
- Huntington, Samuel P. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late 20th Century. Norman, University of Oklahoma Press, 1993.
- “İgtiyal el-Muarıd et-Tunusi Muhammed el-Brahimi”. Al Jazeera Arabiyye, 2013. http://www.aljazeera.net/home/Getpage/f6451603-4dff-4ca1-9c10-122741d17432/2bae1249-795d-4bbf-b8aa-f1288dca73c2.
- Inglehart, Ronald, ve Christian Welzel. Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge, UK ; New York, Cambridge University Press, 2005.
- Jung, Courtney, ve Ian Shapiro. “South Africa’s Negotiated Transition: Democracy, Opposition and the New Constitutional Order”. Politics and Society, Cilt 23, No 3, 1995, s. 269–308.
- Kedourie, Elie. Democracy and Arab Political Culture. London: Routledge, 1994.
- King, Stephen J. The New Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa. Bloomington, Indiana, Indiana University Press, 2009.
- Kirkpatrick, David D. “Top Tunisian General Pledges Support for Revolution”. The New York Times, 24 Ocak 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/world/africa/25tunis.html.
- Lewis, Bernard. “Islam and Liberal Democracy: A Historical Overview”. Journal of Democracy, Cilt 7, No 2, 1996, s. 52–63.
- Lewis, Paul G. “Theories of Democratization and Patterns of Regime Change in Eastern Europe”. Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, Cilt 13, No 1, 1997, s. 4–26.
- Lindberg, Staffan. Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009.
- Linz, Juan J. The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Crisis, Breakdown and Reequilibration. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978.
- Linz, Juan J., ve Alfred C. Stepan. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996.
- Lipset, Seymour Martin. “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy”. American Political Science Review, Cilt 53, No 1, 1959, s. 69–105.
- Marks, Monica. “What Did Tunisia’s Nobel Laureates Actually Achieve?” The Washington Post, 27 Ekim 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/10/27/what-did-tunisias-nobel-laureates-actually-achieve/.
- McFaul, Michael. “The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World”. World Politics, Cilt 54, No 2, 2002, s. 212–44.
- Medeni, Tevfik el-. Sukut ed-Devle el-Bulusiyye fi Tunus. Beyrut: ed-Dar el-Arabiyye li’l Ulum Naşirun, 2011.
- “Men Katele Şükrü Bil’ayd”. Al Jazeera Arabiyye, 2013. http://www.aljazeera.net/home/Getpage/0353e88a-286d-4266-82c6-6094179ea26d/912c3784-4691-4e6f-a79c-e9c3d4ae52bd.
- M’rad, Hatem. Le Dialogue National en Tunisie. Nirvana, 2015.
- O’Donnell, Guillermo, ve Philippe C. Schmitter. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986.
- Ozbudun, Ergun. Otoriter Rejimler, Secimsel Demokrasiler ve Turkiye. İstanbul, Istanbul Bilgi Universitesi Yayinlari, 2011.
- Perkins, Kenneth. A History of Modern Tunisia. 2 edition. New York City, Cambridge University Press, 2014.
- Raşid Gannuşi ile Mülakat. Tunus, 21 Mayıs 2014.
- Refik Abdusselam ile Mülakat. Tunus, 21 Mayıs 2014.
- Ross, Michael L. “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” World Politics, Cilt 53, No 3, 2001, s. 325–61.
- Rustow, Dankwart A. “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model”. Comparative Politics, Cilt 2, No 3, 1970, s. 337–63.
- Schrader, Peter J., ve Hamadi Redissi. “Ben Ali’s Fall”. Içinde Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab World, editör Larry Diamond ve Marc F. Plattner, 203–17. Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014.
- Springborg, Robert. “Arab Militaries”. Içinde The Arab Uprisings Explained: New Contentious Politics in the Middle East, editör Marc Lynch, 142–59. New York, Columbia University Press, 2014.
- Stepan, Alfred C., ve Juan J. Linz. “Democratization Theory and the ‘Arab Spring’”. Journal of Democracy, Cilt 24, No 2, 2013.
- Stepan, Alfred C., Juan J. Linz, ve Juli F. Minoves. “Democratic Parliamentary Monarchies”. Journal of Democracy, Cilt 25, No 2, 2014, s. 35–51.
- “Şahid Yu’lin Teşkile el-Hüküme el-Cedide bi-Tunis”, 20 Ağustos 2016. http://www.aljazeera.net/home/Getpage/f6451603-4dff-4ca1-9c10-122741d17432/6d2a5484-5818-4d4d-95b4-807f71ee5bc9.
- Teorell, Jan. Determinants of Democratization: Explaining Regime Change in the World, 1972-2006. Cambridge; New York, Cambridge University Press, 2010.
- “Tunisia’s Election Results”. National Democratic Institute, 25 Ekim 2011. https://www.ndi.org/node/18262.
- “Tunus: Muzaharat li’l İhticac ala İgtiyal Şükrü Bil’ayd”. BBC Arabi, 2013. http://www.bbc.com/arabic/middleeast/2013/02/130206_tunisia_belaid_demos.
- Volpi, Frédéric. “Explaining (and re-explaining) political change in the Middle East during the Arab Spring: trajectories of democratization and of authoritarianism in the Maghreb”. Democratization, Cilt 20, No 6, 2013, s. 969–90.
- Ware, L. B. “The Role of the Tunisian Military in the Post-Bourgiba Era”. Middle East Journal, Cilt 39, No 1, 1985, s. 27–47.
- Welzel, Christian. “Theories of Democratization”. Içinde Democratization, editör Christian W. Haerpfer, Patrick Bernhagen, Ronald F. Inglehart, ve Christian Welzel, 74–90. Oxford; New York, Oxford University Press, 2009.
- Weyland, Kurt. “The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848?” Perspectives on Politics, Cilt 10, No 4, 2012, s. 917–34.
- World Bank. “World Development Indicators (WDI)”, 2017. http://databank.worldbank.org.
- Yom, Sean L., ve F. Gregory Gause III. “Resilient Royals: How Arab Monarchies Hang On”. Journal of Democracy 23, sayı 4 (2012): 74–88.