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Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies

Year 2023, Volume: 20 Issue: 80, 73 - 91, 19.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1300777

Abstract

This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.

Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies

Year 2023, Volume: 20 Issue: 80, 73 - 91, 19.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1300777

Abstract

This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.

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Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Özgür Özdamar This is me 0000-0001-6865-1895

Burak Toygar Halistoprak 0000-0003-3173-1861

Michael Young This is me 0000-0002-3032-1759

Early Pub Date May 24, 2023
Publication Date December 19, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 20 Issue: 80

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APA Özdamar, Ö., Halistoprak, B. T., & Young, M. (2023). Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 20(80), 73-91. https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1300777
AMA Özdamar Ö, Halistoprak BT, Young M. Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies. uidergisi. December 2023;20(80):73-91. doi:10.33458/uidergisi.1300777
Chicago Özdamar, Özgür, Burak Toygar Halistoprak, and Michael Young. “Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies”. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 20, no. 80 (December 2023): 73-91. https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1300777.
EndNote Özdamar Ö, Halistoprak BT, Young M (December 1, 2023) Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 20 80 73–91.
IEEE Ö. Özdamar, B. T. Halistoprak, and M. Young, “Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies”, uidergisi, vol. 20, no. 80, pp. 73–91, 2023, doi: 10.33458/uidergisi.1300777.
ISNAD Özdamar, Özgür et al. “Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies”. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi 20/80 (December 2023), 73-91. https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1300777.
JAMA Özdamar Ö, Halistoprak BT, Young M. Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies. uidergisi. 2023;20:73–91.
MLA Özdamar, Özgür et al. “Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies”. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, vol. 20, no. 80, 2023, pp. 73-91, doi:10.33458/uidergisi.1300777.
Vancouver Özdamar Ö, Halistoprak BT, Young M. Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies. uidergisi. 2023;20(80):73-91.