Ekonomik Büyüme ve Sermayenin Finansal Gelişme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneğinde Finansal Küreselleşmenin Rolünün ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı İle Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye örneğinde 1990-2018 dönemi için ekonomik büyüme, sermaye ve finansal küreselleşmenin finansal gelişme üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesidir. Analizde, finansal gelişmenin göstergesi olarak özel sektöre verilen krediler kullanılmıştır. Küreselleşmenin ölçütü olarak ise KOF finansal küreselleşme indeksi esas alınmıştır. Seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile ortaya konularak uzun dönem tahmini yapılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda tüm değişkenlerin finansal gelişme üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. ARDL modelinin güvenirliliğini ortaya koymak için ayrıca FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR modelleri ile uzun dönem tahmini yapılmıştır. Tüm modellerde tahmin sonuçlarının birbirleri ile tutarlı olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Son aşamada yapılan Toda Yamamoto nedensellik analizinde finansal gelişme ile GDP ve sermaye arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Finansal küreselleşmeden finansal gelişmeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Dolayısıyla finansal küreselleşmenin Türkiye’deki finansal sistemin büyüme ve gelişim sürecinde önemli bir faktör olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

• Finansal Küreselleşme
• Finansal Gelişme
• ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Impact of Economic Growth and Capital on Financial Development: Analysis of the Role of Financial Globalization in the Case of Turkey with ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of economic growth, capital and financial globalization on financial development for the period 1990-2018 in the case of Turkey. In the analysis, credits to the private sector were used as an indicator of financial development. The measure of globalization is based on the KOF financial globalization index. The long-run relationship between the series was revealed with the ARDL Bounds Test approach and a long-run prediction was made. As a result of the analysis, the effect of all variables on financial development was found to be positive and statistically significant. Long-run estimating was also made with FMOLS, DOLS and CCR models to demonstrate the reliability of the ARDL model. In all models, it was found that the estimation results were consistent with each other. In the latest Toda Yamamoto causality analysis, the bidirectional causality relationship between financial development and GDP and capital was identified. A unidirectional causality relationship from financial globalization to financial development has been found. Therefore, it has been concluded that financial globalization is an important factor in the growth and development process of the financial system in Turkey.

Keywords

• Financial Globalization
• Financial Development
• ARDL Bounds Test Approach

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