Afrika Ülkelerinde Finansal Kapsayıcılık ve İstikrarın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2004-2020 yılları arasında 30 Afrika ülkesinde finansal kapsayıcılığın ve finansal istikrarın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Veriler panel ARDL modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Panel ARDL tahminlerinin sonuçlarına göre, finansal kapsayıcılığın uzun vadeli ekonomik büyüme üzerinde önemli bir pozitif etkisi olduğu, ancak kısa vadede anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışmada ayrıca, finansal kapsayıcılığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin farklı gelir düzeylerine göre değiştiği tespit edilmiştir. Özellikle düşük gelir düzeyinde pozitif bir ilişki, alt-orta gelir düzeyinde ise negatif bir ilişki ve üst-orta gelirli ülkelerde pozitif olmakla birlikte istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmayan bir etki gözlenmiştir. Diğer taraftan, finansal istikrarın (banka Z-skorunun) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi uzun vadede negatifken, kısa vadede pozitif olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu etkinin düşük gelirli ülkeler için negatif, alt-orta gelirli ülkeler için pozitif ve üst-orta gelirli ülkeler için ise negatif ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığı ortaya konmuştur. Dolayısıyla, çalışmanın bulguları, Afrika ülkelerinde finansal kapsayıcılık ve finansal istikrar politikalarının ülkenin gelir düzeyine göre şekillendirilmesi gerektiğini önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Kapsayıcılık
• Finansal İstikrar
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Panel ARDL
• Afrika

The Impact of Financial Inclusion and Stability on Economic Growth in African Countries

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of financial inclusion and financial stability on economic growth in a panel study of 30 African countries over the period between 2004 and 2020. Data were analyzed using the panel ARDL model. The panel ARDL estimation results demonstrate that financial inclusion has a statistically significant positive long-term effect on economic growth, though its short-term impact is insignificant. The study also found that the effects of financial inclusion on economic growth vary across different income levels. Specifically, there is a positive association in low-income countries, a negative association in lower-middle-income countries, and a positive but insignificant effect in upper-middle-income countries. On the other hand, the financial stability measured by the bank Z-score has a significant negative impact on long-run economic growth and a positive one in the short run. The effect is negative for low-income countries, positive for lower-middle-income countries, and negative but insignificant for upper-middle-income countries. Thus, the study findings suggest financial inclusion and financial stability policies should be tailored to the country's income level in African countries.

Keywords

• Financial Inclusion
• Financial Stability
• Economic Growth
• Panel ARDL
• Africa

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