Forecasting the Role of Renewable Energy on Algeria's Economic Stability: ARIMAX Model

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of integrating renewable energy sources on Algeria's economic stability by 2030. Given Algeria's heavy reliance on fossil fuels, which constitutes 95% of its export revenues, the nation faces significant economic vulnerabilities due to global oil price fluctuations. Utilizing Python 3.12.3 to implement the ARIMAX model, this research analyzes economic data from 1970 to 2022 to forecast GDP growth, considering variables such as inflation, crude oil prices, and the share of renewable energy in the total primary energy supply. The findings suggest that incorporating renewable energy could enhance Algeria’s economic resilience, potentially contributing an additional 2% to GDP by 2030. This study underscores the critical need for strategic investments in renewable energy, emphasizing that this shift is not just an environmental imperative but a cornerstone for ensuring sustainable development and long-term economic stability.

Keywords

• Algeria
• ARIMAX Model
• Economic Stability
• Renewable Energy

Cezayir'in Ekonomik İstikrarı Üzerine Yenilenebilir Enerjinin Rolünün Tahmini: ARIMAX Model

Öz

Bu çalışma, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının entegrasyonunun 2030 yılına kadar Cezayir'in ekonomik istikrarı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Fosil yakıtlara olan yoğun bağımlılığı nedeniyle, Cezayir'in ihracat gelirlerinin %95'ini oluşturmakta ve küresel petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalara karşı önemli ekonomik kırılganlıklarla karşı karşıya kalmaktadır. Python 3.12.3 kullanarak ARIMAX modelini uygulayan bu araştırma, 1970'ten 2022'ye kadar olan ekonomik verileri analiz ederek enflasyon, ham petrol fiyatları ve toplam birincil enerji arzındaki yenilenebilir enerji payı gibi değişkenleri dikkate alarak GSYİH büyümesini tahmin etmektedir. Bulgular, yenilenebilir enerjinin entegrasyonunun Cezayir'in ekonomik direncini artırabileceğini ve 2030 yılına kadar GSYİH'ye ek olarak %2 katkıda bulunabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, yenilenebilir enerjiye yönelik stratejik yatırımların gerekliliğini vurgulayarak, bu geçişin sadece çevresel bir zorunluluk değil, aynı zamanda sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve uzun vadeli ekonomik istikrarın sağlanması için bir temel taşı olduğunu belirtmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cezayir
• ARIMAX Modeli
• Ekonomik İstikrar
• Yenilenebilir Enerji

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