Artificial Intelligence and Export Performance: Insights from OECD Countries

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) investments and research and development (R&D) expenditures on export performance across 15 OECD countries. The analysis is conducted using a panel dataset covering the period from 2013 to 2023 and employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) approach. This method allows for examining how the impacts of AI and R&D expenditures on export performance vary across different quantiles of the conditional distribution, rather than focusing solely on average effects. The findings reveal that the relationship between AI investments and export performance is neither linear nor homogeneous and differs depending on countries’ export performance levels. In particular, AI investments are found to exert a suppressing effect on exports in the short run, while simultaneously reducing volatility and playing a stabilizing role in export performance. The effects of R&D expenditures are observed to be more pronounced in countries with low and medium levels of export performance, whereas they weaken at higher export levels. Overall, the results highlight the necessity of designing AI and R&D oriented policies within an integrated, differentiated, and country-specific framework that accounts for heterogeneity in export performance across OECD economies.

Keywords

• OECD Countries
• Research and Development
• Artificial Intelligence
• International Trade
• Exports

Yapay Zeka ve İhracat Performansı: OECD Ülkelerinden Görüşler

Abstract

Bu çalışma, yapay zekâ (YZ) yatırımları ve araştırma geliştirme (Ar-Ge) harcamalarının ihracat performansı üzerindeki etkilerini 15 OECD ülkesi örneğinde incelemektedir. Analiz, 2013–2023 dönemine ait panel veri seti kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiş ve Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Bu yöntem, yapay zekâ ve Ar-Ge harcamalarının ihracat performansı üzerindeki etkilerinin yalnızca ortalama düzeyde değil, dağılımın farklı kantillerinde nasıl değiştiğini ortaya koymaya olanak tanımaktadır. Bulgular, yapay zekâ yatırımlarının ihracat performansı üzerindeki etkisinin doğrusal ve homojen olmadığını; ülkelerin ihracat düzeylerine bağlı olarak farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Özellikle yapay zekâ yatırımlarının kısa vadede ihracat üzerinde baskılayıcı bir etki yarattığı, buna karşılık ihracat performansındaki oynaklığı azalttığı ve istikrar sağlayıcı bir rol üstlendiği tespit edilmiştir. Ar-Ge harcamalarının etkisi ise daha çok düşük ve orta düzeyde ihracat performansına sahip ülkelerde anlamlı bulunmakta, yüksek ihracat düzeylerinde zayıflamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, yapay zekâ ve Ar-Ge politikalarının ülke ve performans düzeylerine duyarlı, bütünleşik ve farklılaştırılmış bir çerçevede tasarlanması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• OECD Ülkeleri
• Araştırma ve Geliştirme
• Yapay Zeka
• Uluslararası Ticaret
• İhracat

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