Energy Demand, Financial Access, and Urbanization as Determinants of the Load Capacity Factor: Fresh Evidence from the United States

Abstract

This study explores economic activity, energy consumption, financial availability, and urban growth in determining environmental sustainability in the United States using the Load Capacity Factor (LCF) in the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis. The analysis uses annual data from 1996 to 2022 and starts with a set of unit root tests (ADF, PP, and DF-GLS) to check the stationarity of the variables. The ARDL bound-testing model demonstrates a long-term equilibrium in the chosen indicators. Long-term estimates show that economic growth and improved financial accessibility enhance the LCF, reflecting better ecological conditions. However, the short-term dynamics differ: increases in GDP, rising energy consumption, and rapid urbanization exert downward pressure on LCF, highlighting transitional environmental stress during periods of accelerated development. Overall, the results suggest that while sustained economic progress and enhanced financial inclusion support long-run ecological resilience, the United States continues to face short-run environmental challenges driven by fossil-fuel-intensive energy use and urban population growth. These insights underscore the importance of a combined approach to policies that would strike a balance between economic goals and environmental protection in the long run by using cleaner forms of energy, practicing greener finances, and ensuring sustainable urban development.

Keywords

• Load Capacity Factor
• Energy Consumption
• Urbanization
• Financial Accessibility
• ARDL Approach

Yük Kapasite Faktörünün Belirleyicileri Olarak Enerji Talebi, Finansal Erişim ve Kentleşme: Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nden Yeni Bulgular

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, yapay zekâ (YZ) endeksleri ile karbon piyasası arasındaki finansal etkileşimi incelemek ve iki piyasa arasındaki şok geçişkenliğinin piyasa koşullarına göre nasıl değiştiğini ortaya koymaktır. Bu doğrultuda çalışma, 18 Şubat 2022 - 27 Haziran 2025 dönemini kapsayan günlük veriler kullanılarak iki karbon endeksi, ICE EUA Carbon Futures Excess Return Endeksi (ICEEUA) ve S&P Global Carbon Credit Endeksi (GLCARB), ile iki YZ endeksi, Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Endeksi (NQROBO) ve ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Endeksi (THNQ), arasındaki dinamikleri analiz etmektedir. Kantil-Kantil Bağlantılılık yöntemiyle elde edilen bulgular, karbon piyasasının büyük ölçüde YZ endekslerine doğru birincil şok yayıcı (shock transmitter) olarak hareket ettiğini göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, teknolojik ivmenin arttığı belirli dönemlerde YZ endekslerinin de karbon piyasasına anlamlı düzeyde geri besleme etkisi oluşturduğu gözlemlenmektedir. Bu etkileşimlerin özellikle uç çeyrek (extreme quantile) rejimlerde belirginleşmesi, iki piyasa arasındaki entegrasyonun stres dönemlerinde daha da güçlendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, karbon fiyatlaması ile YZ sektörünün finansal yapılarının giderek daha fazla iç içe geçtiğini ve sürdürülebilirlik politikalarının, teknoloji piyasalarındaki gelişmeleri dikkate alacak şekilde yeniden değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Yük Kapasite Faktörü
• Enerji Tüketimi
• Kentleşme
• Finansal Erişilebilirlik
• ARDL Yaklaşımı

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