The Impact of Economic Factors on Voter Preferences: The Case of Turkey

Year 2021, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 139 - 149, 31.12.2021

Barış Armutcu , Ahmet Tan

https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1032881

Cited By: 3

Abstract

The current study investigates the relationship between the votes of political parties and per capita gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation rates in Turkey for the years between 1990 and 2019. ADF, PP and Carrion-i-Silvestre unit root tests with structural breaks were used to determine the degree of stationarity of the variables. Maki cointegration test and ARDL bounds test were used under multiple structural breaks to determine the cointegration and short and long-term relationships between the variables. Finally, Todo-Yomamoto Granger causality test was used to determine the causality relationship between the variables. The results revealed that per capita gross domestic product positively affects the vote rates of political parties in the short-term, and inflation affects the vote rates of political parties negatively in the long-term. As a result of the Granger causality test, a one-way causality relationship was determined between inflation and the vote rates of political parties. According to this result, it is seen that the increase in the inflation rate causes a decrease in the vote rates of political parties in Turkey. Another important finding is that the unemployment rate has no effect on the vote rates of political parties.

Keywords

Economic Voting, Voter Behaviour, Turkey Voter Behaviour, ARDL and Toda Yamamoto Causality Test

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