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Bangladeş'te Para ve Maliye Politikalarının Fiyat ve Döviz İstikrarı Üzerindeki Etkileri

Year 2024, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 32 - 47, 31.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1402591

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Bangladeş'te son dönemde yaşanan yüksek enflasyon ve döviz krizi ışığında para ve maliye politikalarının enflasyon ve döviz kuru üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Analizlerde, para ve maliye politikalarının enflasyonu ve döviz dalgalanmalarını yöneterek ekonomiyi istikrara kavuşturma yeteneğini incelemek için 1991'den 2022'ye kadar olan verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı, model spesifikasyonunun ampirik ilişkilerini hem parasalcı hem de Keynesyen perspektiflerden tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, para ve maliye politikalarının enflasyon yönetimini önemli ölçüde etkilediğini, para politikasının ise daha önemli bir rol oynadığını ortaya koymaktadır Ampirik ilişki, para arzındaki ve hükümet harcamalarındaki artışın enflasyonu olumlu yönde etkilediğini, para arzının yurt içi fiyatları kontrol etmede daha büyük bir etkiye sahip olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Ancak çalışma para ve maliye politikalarının döviz kuru istikrarını önemli ölçüde etkilediğine dair kanıt sunmuyor. Araştırma, ihracat sektörünün güçlendirilmesi, işçi dövizi girişi miktarının artırılması, yerli üretimi teşvik ederek ithalata bağımlılığın azaltılması, para politikasına mali bağımlılığın azaltılmasına öncelik verilmesi ve piyasa odaklı bir döviz kuru mekanizması uygulanmasının ekonomik istikrarın korunmasına yardımcı olabileceğini gösteriyor. Fiyatlar ve para birimi açısından buu sonuçlar, ekonomiyi istikrara kavuşturmada para ve maliye politikalarının etkinliğine dair değerli bilgiler sağlıyor ve Bangladeş'teki politika yapıcılara ilgili politika sonuçları sunuyor.

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Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Price and Currency Stability in Bangladesh

Year 2024, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 32 - 47, 31.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1402591

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on inflation and exchange rate in Bangladesh in light of recent high inflation and the currency crisis. The analyses employ data from 1991 to 2022 to examine the ability of monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize the economy by managing inflation and currency fluctuations. The ARDL bounds test approach is utilized to estimate the empirical relationships of the model specification from both monetarist and Keynesian perspectives. The study’s findings reveal that monetary and fiscal policies significantly impact inflation management, with monetary policy playing a more substantial role. The empirical relationship emphasizes that an increase in money supply and government spending positively affect inflation, with money supply having a greater impact on controlling domestic prices. Nevertheless, the study does not provide evidence that monetary and fiscal policies significantly influence exchange rate stabilization. The research indicates that enhancing the export sector, raising the amount of remittance inflows, reducing import reliance by promoting domestic production, prioritizing the reduction of fiscal reliance on monetary policy, and implementing a market-oriented exchange rate mechanism can aid in maintaining economic stability in terms of prices and currency. These outcomes provide valuable insight into the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in stabilizing the economy and offer relevant policy implications for policymakers in Bangladesh.

References

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  • Buyukbaşaran, T., Cebi, C., & Yılmaz, E. (2020). Interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 20(4), 193-203.
  • Cabral, R., & García Díaz, R. (2015). Is fiscal policy coordination desirable for a monetary union? An assessment from the perspective of a small open economy. Investigación Económica, 74(294), 3-72.
  • Carlson, K. M. (1978). Does the St. Louis equation now believe in fiscal policy?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 13-19.
  • Cavalli, F., Naimzada, A. K., & Pecora, N. (2019). Complex interplay between monetary and fiscal policies in a real economy model. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 128, 318-330.
  • Chatziantoniou, I., Duffy, D., & Filis, G. (2013). Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence. Economic Modelling, 30, 754-769.
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  • Cheung, Y. W., Steinkamp, S., & Westermann, F. (2016). China’s capital flight: Pre-and post-crisis experiences. Journal of International Money and Finance, 66, 88-112.
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  • Cukierman, A. (2013). Monetary policy and institutions before, during, and after the global financial crisis. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(3), 373-384.
  • Darrat, A. F. (1984). The dominant influence of fiscal actions in developing countries. Eastern Economic Journal, 10(3), 271-284.
  • De Leeuw, F., & Gramlich, E. M. (1969). The channels of monetary policy: A further report on the Federal Reserve—MIT Model. The Journal of Finance, 24(2), 265-290.
  • Deb, P., Furceri, D., Ostry, J. D., Tawk, N., & Yang, N. (2021). The effects of fiscal measures during COVID-19. International Monetary Fund (WP/21/262).
  • Debrun, X., Masuch, K., Vansteenkiste, I., Ferdinandusse, M., von Thadden, L., Hauptmeier, S., & Penciu, A. (2021). Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. European Central Bank.
  • DePrano, M., & Mayer, T. (1965). Tests of the relative importance of autonomous expenditures and money. The American Economic Review, 55(4), 729-752.
  • Divino, J. A., Maciel, D. T., & Sosa, W. (2020). Government size, composition of public spending and economic growth in Brazil. Economic Modelling, 91, 155-166.
  • Eijffinger, S. C., & Karataş, B. (2012). Currency crises and monetary policy: A study on advanced and emerging economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(5), 948-974.
  • Fabris, N. (2018). Challenges for modern monetary policy. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 7(2), 5-24.
  • Ferrando, A., Popov, A., & Udell, G. F. (2022). Unconventional monetary policy, funding expectations, and firm decisions. European Economic Review, 149, 104268.
  • Filardo, A., Genberg, H., & Hofmann, B. (2016). Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: an Asian central bank perspective. Journal of Asian Economics, 46, 1-16.
  • Friedman, B. M. (1977). Financial flow variables and the short-run determination of long-term interest rates. Journal of Political Economy, 85(4), 661-689.
  • Friedman, B. M., & Kuttner, K. N. (1992). Money, income, prices, and interest rates. The American Economic Review, 472-492.
  • Friedman, M. and Meiselman, D. (1963). The relative stability of monetary velocity and the investment multiplier in the United States, 1897-1958. In: Stabilization Policies, Prentice-Hall, Englewood, 165-268.
  • Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. (1963). Money and business cycle. Review of Economics and Statistics, 45, 32-64. Fung, B. S. (2002). A VAR analysis of the effects of monetary policy in East Asia. (BIS Working Paper No. 119). Retrieved from http:// dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.846184.
  • Gramlich, E. M. (1971). The usefulness of monetary and fiscal policy as discretionary stabilization tools. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 3(2), 506-532.
  • Han, X., & Wei, S. J. (2018). International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma. Journal of International Economics, 110, 205-219.
  • Hasan, M. S. (2001). Monetary and fiscal impacts on economic activities in Bangladesh: further evidence. The Bangladesh Development Studies, 27(4), 101-119.
  • Hasnul, A. G. 2015. The effects of government expenditure on economic growth: the case of Malaysia. MPRA Paper 71254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Hommes, C., Lustenhouwer, J., & Mavromatis, K. (2018). Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 87, 173-205.
  • Hur, J., & Lee, K. K. (2017). Fiscal financing and the efficacy of fiscal policy in Korea: An empirical assessment with comparison to the US evidence. Economic Modelling, 64, 473-486.
  • Hussain, M. (1982). The relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy: An econometric case study of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 20(2), 159-181.
  • Iddrisu, A. A., & Alagidede, I. P. (2020). Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis. Food Policy, 91, 101816.
  • Jayaraman, T. K. (2001). Efficacy of fiscal and monetary policies in the South Pacific Island countries: Some empirical evidence. The Indian Economic Journal, 49(1), 63-72.
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There are 90 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Time-Series Analysis
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Mohammad Mohidul Islam 0009-0006-2579-9770

Publication Date March 31, 2024
Submission Date December 9, 2023
Acceptance Date March 3, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 6 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Islam, M. M. (2024). Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Price and Currency Stability in Bangladesh. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 6(1), 32-47. https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1402591

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