The Interaction Between Domestic Savings, Institutional Quality and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from the Augmented ARDL Method
Öz
The relationship between economic performance and institutional structure has been investigated with increasing interest in economic literature, especially in recent years. The issue of which channels institutional quality will increase economic performance is progressing on controversial grounds. The effect of institutional quality on savings, and foreign direct investments is a research area on which no consensus has been reached. Since the Turkish economy is an economy that is dependent on foreign countries and constantly has a current account deficit, it is essential to increase the level of domestic savings to increase investments. Therefore, the effect of the institutional structure and foreign direct investment inflows on domestic savings in the Turkish economy is an important issue to be analyzed. In this study, the long-term relationships between domestic savings, institutional quality and foreign direct investments for the period 1995-2023 were analyzed using the augmented ARDL method. The findings revealed the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables. Improvement in institutional quality and increase in foreign direct investments positively affect the level of domestic savings. This study reveals that increasing institutional quality and more foreign direct investment inflows have positive contributions in increasing the level of domestic savings.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Domestic savings institutional quality foreign direct investment augmented ARDL.
Kaynakça
- Abu, N., Karim, M. and Aziz, M. (2015). Low savings rates in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): The role of corruption. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 36(2) 63-90.
- Abu, N. and Waldemar Staniewski, M. (2022). An empirical investigation of the effect of corruption on domestic savings in Nigeria. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 4092-4112.
- Acaravcı, A., Artan, S., Erdoğan, S. ve Göktürk, T. B. (2018). Türkiye’de Kurumsal Kalite, Reel Gelir ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar İlişkisi. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 5(2), 132-145.
- Acemoğlu, D. and Johnson, S. (2005). Unbundling institutions. Journal of political Economy, 113(5), 949-995.
- Acemoğlu, D. (2010). Growth and institutions in economic growth (pp. 107-115). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
- Acemoğlu, D., ve Robinson, J. A. (2013). Ulusların Düşüşü: Güç, Zenginlik ve Yoksulluğun Kökenleri. (Çev. F. R. Velioğlu), İstanbul: Doğan Kitap.
- Acemoğlu, D., Gallego, F. A. and Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. National Bureau of Economic Research, 6(1), 875-912. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19933/w19933.pdf
- Acemoğlu, D. and Robinson, J. A. (2016). Paths to inclusive political institutions. Economic history of warfare and state formation, 3-50.
- Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. A. (2021). Culture, institutions and social equilibria: a framework (No. w28832). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Alam, I. and Quazi, R. (2003). Determinants of capital flight: An econometric case study of Bangladesh. International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), 85-103.
- Ayres, C. E. (1953). The Role of Technology in Economic Theory. The American Economic Review, Vol. 43, No. 2: 279-287.
- Ayres, C. E. (1966). The Nature and Significance of Institutionalism. The Antioch Review, Vol. 26, No. 1: 70-90. https://doi.org/10.2307/4610741
- Brown R.L., Durbin J. and Evans J.M. (1975). Techniques for testing the consistency of regression relations over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37, 149-192.
- Buchanan, B., Le, Q.V. and Rishi, M. (2012), Foreign Direct Investment and Institutional Quality: Some Empirical Evidence, International Review of Financial Analysis, 21: 81-89.
- Buğra, A. (2008). İktisatçılar ve İnsanlar. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
- Chenery, H. B. (1967). Foreign assistance and economic development. In Capital movements and economic development (pp. 268-292). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
- Çolak, Ö. F. ve Öztürkler, H. (2012). Tasarrufun belirleyicileri: Küresel tasarruf eğiliminde değişim ve Türkiye’de hanehalkı tasarruf eğiliminin analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 82(3).
- Commons, J.R. (1925). Legal Foundations of Capitalism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 39, No. 2: 300-312.
- Daude, C., and Steın, E. (2007), The quality of institutions and foreign direct investment, Economics and Politics, 19(3): 317-344.
- Easterly, W. (2001), The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. Cambridge: MIT Press.
- Echebiri, R. C., Obiakor, T., and Tella, S. (2023). Financial Liberalization, Institutions and Savings in Nigeria. International Journal of Developing and Emerging Economies, 11(1), 83-107.
- Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction:representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
- Herger N., Hodler R., and Lobsiger M. (2007), What Determines Financial Development? Culture Institutions or Trade, World Trade Institute.
- Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation andinference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
- McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., and Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509–1521.
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990
- Narayan, P. and Smyth, R. (2005). Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Fiji. An Empirical Assessment Using the ARDL Approach, Asia Pacific Economy, 10:1, 96-115, https://doi.org/10.1080/1354786042000309099
- Olson, M. (1996), Big Bills Left on the Sidewalk: Why Some Nations are Rich and Others Poor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10: 3-24.
- Örnek, İ. (2008). Yabanci Sermaye Akimlarinin Yurtiçi Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 63(02), 199-217.
- Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the commons: The evolution of institutions for collective action. Cambridge University.
- Özveren, E. (2007). Kurumsal İktisat. Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
- Papanek, G. F. (1973). Aid, foreign private investment, savings, and growth in less developed countries. Journal of political Economy, 81(1), 120-130.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
- Phillips, P. C. and Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The review of economic studies, 57(1), 99-125.
- Rand, J., and Tarp, F. (2002). Business cycles in developing countries: are they different? World Development, 30(12), 2071-2088.
- Sam, C. Y., McNown, R. and Goh, S. K. (2019). An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130–141.
- Sarker, B., and Khan, F. (2020). Nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Bangladesh: An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Financial Innovation, 6, 1-18.
- Teyyare, E. (2018). Tasarruf-Yatırım-Kurumsal Kalite İlişkisine Yönelik Bir Analiz: Türkiye Örneği. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 18(1), 119-139.
- Williamson, O. E. (1985). The economic institutions of capitalism. New York: The Free Press.
- Zhao, X. (2014). Why is China's Savings Rate so High? (Doctoral Dissertation, Auburn University).
- Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of business & economic statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
Yurtiçi Tasarruflar, Kurumsal Kalite ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Arasındaki Etkileşim: Genişletilmiş ARDL Yönteminden Kanıtlar
Öz
Ekonomik performans ile kurumsal yapı arasındaki ilişki özellikle son dönemlerde iktisat literatüründe artan bir ilgi ile araştırılmaktadır. Kurumsal kalitenin hangi kanallar ile ekonomik performansı artıracağı konusu ise tartışmalı bir zeminde ilerlemektedir. Kurumsal kalitenin tasarruflar, yatırımlar ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi, üzerinde konsensüs sağlanmamış bir araştırma alanıdır. Türkiye ekonomisinin dışa bağımlı ve sürekli cari açık veren bir ekonomi olması nedeniyle yatırımlarını artırmak için yurtiçi tasarruf düzeyini artırması elzemdir. Dolayısıyla Türkiye ekonomisinde kurumsal yapının ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerinin yurtiçi tasarruflar üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmesi gereken önemli bir husustur. Bu çalışmada 1995-2023 dönemine ait yurtiçi tasarruflar, kurumsal kalite ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler augmented ARDL (genişletilmiş ARDL) yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz bulgularına göre, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Kurumsal kalitede iyileşme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki artış yurtiçi tasarruf düzeyini pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Bu çalışma ile yurtiçi tasarruf düzeyinin artırılmasında kurumsal kalitenin yükseltilmesinin ve daha fazla doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişinin olumlu katkısı olduğu ortaya konmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Yurtiçi tasarruflar kurumsal kalite doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar genişletilmiş ARDL.
Kaynakça
- Abu, N., Karim, M. and Aziz, M. (2015). Low savings rates in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): The role of corruption. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 36(2) 63-90.
- Abu, N. and Waldemar Staniewski, M. (2022). An empirical investigation of the effect of corruption on domestic savings in Nigeria. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 4092-4112.
- Acaravcı, A., Artan, S., Erdoğan, S. ve Göktürk, T. B. (2018). Türkiye’de Kurumsal Kalite, Reel Gelir ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar İlişkisi. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 5(2), 132-145.
- Acemoğlu, D. and Johnson, S. (2005). Unbundling institutions. Journal of political Economy, 113(5), 949-995.
- Acemoğlu, D. (2010). Growth and institutions in economic growth (pp. 107-115). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
- Acemoğlu, D., ve Robinson, J. A. (2013). Ulusların Düşüşü: Güç, Zenginlik ve Yoksulluğun Kökenleri. (Çev. F. R. Velioğlu), İstanbul: Doğan Kitap.
- Acemoğlu, D., Gallego, F. A. and Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. National Bureau of Economic Research, 6(1), 875-912. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19933/w19933.pdf
- Acemoğlu, D. and Robinson, J. A. (2016). Paths to inclusive political institutions. Economic history of warfare and state formation, 3-50.
- Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. A. (2021). Culture, institutions and social equilibria: a framework (No. w28832). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Alam, I. and Quazi, R. (2003). Determinants of capital flight: An econometric case study of Bangladesh. International Review of Applied Economics, 17(1), 85-103.
- Ayres, C. E. (1953). The Role of Technology in Economic Theory. The American Economic Review, Vol. 43, No. 2: 279-287.
- Ayres, C. E. (1966). The Nature and Significance of Institutionalism. The Antioch Review, Vol. 26, No. 1: 70-90. https://doi.org/10.2307/4610741
- Brown R.L., Durbin J. and Evans J.M. (1975). Techniques for testing the consistency of regression relations over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37, 149-192.
- Buchanan, B., Le, Q.V. and Rishi, M. (2012), Foreign Direct Investment and Institutional Quality: Some Empirical Evidence, International Review of Financial Analysis, 21: 81-89.
- Buğra, A. (2008). İktisatçılar ve İnsanlar. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
- Chenery, H. B. (1967). Foreign assistance and economic development. In Capital movements and economic development (pp. 268-292). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
- Çolak, Ö. F. ve Öztürkler, H. (2012). Tasarrufun belirleyicileri: Küresel tasarruf eğiliminde değişim ve Türkiye’de hanehalkı tasarruf eğiliminin analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 82(3).
- Commons, J.R. (1925). Legal Foundations of Capitalism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 39, No. 2: 300-312.
- Daude, C., and Steın, E. (2007), The quality of institutions and foreign direct investment, Economics and Politics, 19(3): 317-344.
- Easterly, W. (2001), The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. Cambridge: MIT Press.
- Echebiri, R. C., Obiakor, T., and Tella, S. (2023). Financial Liberalization, Institutions and Savings in Nigeria. International Journal of Developing and Emerging Economies, 11(1), 83-107.
- Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction:representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
- Herger N., Hodler R., and Lobsiger M. (2007), What Determines Financial Development? Culture Institutions or Trade, World Trade Institute.
- Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation andinference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
- McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., and Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509–1521.
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990
- Narayan, P. and Smyth, R. (2005). Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Fiji. An Empirical Assessment Using the ARDL Approach, Asia Pacific Economy, 10:1, 96-115, https://doi.org/10.1080/1354786042000309099
- Olson, M. (1996), Big Bills Left on the Sidewalk: Why Some Nations are Rich and Others Poor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10: 3-24.
- Örnek, İ. (2008). Yabanci Sermaye Akimlarinin Yurtiçi Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 63(02), 199-217.
- Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the commons: The evolution of institutions for collective action. Cambridge University.
- Özveren, E. (2007). Kurumsal İktisat. Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
- Papanek, G. F. (1973). Aid, foreign private investment, savings, and growth in less developed countries. Journal of political Economy, 81(1), 120-130.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
- Phillips, P. C. and Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The review of economic studies, 57(1), 99-125.
- Rand, J., and Tarp, F. (2002). Business cycles in developing countries: are they different? World Development, 30(12), 2071-2088.
- Sam, C. Y., McNown, R. and Goh, S. K. (2019). An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130–141.
- Sarker, B., and Khan, F. (2020). Nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Bangladesh: An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Financial Innovation, 6, 1-18.
- Teyyare, E. (2018). Tasarruf-Yatırım-Kurumsal Kalite İlişkisine Yönelik Bir Analiz: Türkiye Örneği. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 18(1), 119-139.
- Williamson, O. E. (1985). The economic institutions of capitalism. New York: The Free Press.
- Zhao, X. (2014). Why is China's Savings Rate so High? (Doctoral Dissertation, Auburn University).
- Zivot, E. and Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of business & economic statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Zaman Serileri Analizi, Uluslararası Finans, Kurumsal İktisat |
| Bölüm | Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2 |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 23 Aralık 2024 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 17 Aralık 2024 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 22 Aralık 2024 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2024 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2 |
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