Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

21. Yüzyılda Caydırma Teorisi ve Pratiğinin Değişimi

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 13 - 50, 31.05.2021

Abstract

Caydırma, Soğuk Savaş döneminde ABD ve Sovyetler Birliği arasındaki rekabet ve mücadelede nükleer ve stratejik konvansiyonel silahların kullanımı ve tehdidine dayalı olarak gelişmiştir. Realizmin uluslararası politikada ontolojik kabulleri ve güvenliğe yaklaşımı klasik caydırma teorisinin rasyonel karar verme modeli ile stratejik etkileşimde doğrusal tırmanma yaklaşımı bağlamında gelişimine yol açmıştır. Soğuk Savaş döneminde açıklayıcı gücü nispeten fazla olan kuramın Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönemin ilerleyen yıllarında bu özelliği yetersiz kalmıştır. 21. Yüzyıl stratejik ortamının aktörler, konular, vasıtalar ve stratejiler boyutlarında hibritleşen özellikleri caydırmaya yeni bakış açıları gerektirmektedir. Bu makalede, 21. yüzyılda hibrit ortamın özellikleri tartışılarak doğrusal olmayan caydırmanın gerekliliği tespit edilmekte ve ana esasları ortaya konulmaktadır.

References

  • “Asker Gönderme Meclis’te Kabul Edildi: Mehmetçik Katar’a”, Hürriyet, https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/asker-gonderme-mecliste-kabul-edildi-mehmetcik-katara-40483245, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.03.2021).
  • “Deterrence Operations: Joint Operations Concept version 2.0.”, US DOD JOC, https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/ 36/Documents/Doctrine/concepts/joc_deterrence.pdf?ver=2017-12-28-162015-337 (Erişim Tarihi: 28.05.2020).
  • “Libya Tezkeresi TBMM Genel Kurulu’nda Kabul Edildi”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/libya/libya-tezkeresi-tbmm-genel-kurulunda-kabul-edildi/1690170, (Erişim Tarihi: 21.01.2021).
  • “Office of the Secretary of Defense-2018”, Nuclear Posture Review, https://dod.defense.gov/News/SpecialReports/2018Nuclear PostureReview.aspx., (Erişim Tarihi: 06.07.2020).
  • “SHBP-Soviet Hydrogen Bomb Program”, Atomic Heritage Foundation, https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/soviet-hydrogen-bomb-program, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.06.202).
  • AÇIKMEŞE, Sinem Akgül, “Algı mı, Söylem mi? Kopenhag Okulu ve Yeni Klasik Gerçekçilikte Güvenlik Tehditleri”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, 8(30), Yaz 2011, s. 43-73.
  • ANDENAES, Johannes, “Deterrence: A Historical Perspective”, Jrank, https://law.jrank.org/pages/956/Deterrence-historical-perspective.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 17.04. 2020).
  • ARREGUÍN-TOFT, Ivan, “Unconventional Deterrence: How the Weak Deter the Strong”, T. V. Paul v.d., der., Complex Deterrence:Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 204-221.
  • ARREGUÍN-TOFT, Ivan, How the Weak Win Wars, A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2005.
  • BEAUFRE, Andre, Deterrence and Strategy, Praeger, New York 1965.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay, “Changing Balancing Behaviors in Turkish Foreign Policy During AKP Period (2002-2019)”, Akademik Bakış, 13(25), 2019, s. 53-77.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay, “Devlet Dışı Aktörler ve Diplomasi”, Oktay Bingöl-Selma Şekercioğlu, der., Diplomaside Değişim, Kuramlar, Kavramlar ve Uygulamalar, Barış Kitap, Ankara 2020.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay, “Rusya’nın Nükleer Caydırma Konsepti”, Merkez Strateji Enstitüsü, Rapor No. 0012, http://merkezstrateji.com/assets/media/12-rapor-012-rus-nuek-s1.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 14.05. 2020).
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay, Başarısız Devletler: Kavramlar, Nedenler ve Sonuçlar, Barış Kitap, Ankara 2016.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay-Ali Bilgin Varlık, 15 Temmuz Sonrası Türk Ordusu: Kriz ve Çıkış, Barış Kitap, Ankara 2017.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay-Ali Bilgin Varlık, Güvenlik Çalışmaları-I: Kuramsal Yaklaşımlar, Hiper Kitap, İstanbul, 2020.
  • CHARNYSH, Volha, “A Brief History of Nuclear Proliferation”, https://www.wagingpeace.org›uploads›2012/11, (Erişim Tarihi: 16.05.2020).
  • CHENG, Dean, “Chinese Views on Deterrence”, Joint Force Quarterly 60, https://www.questia.com/magazine/1G1-275489748/chinese-views-on-deterrence-celebration-of-50th-anniversary, (Erişim Tarihi:11.08.2020).
  • CHENG, Dean, “Evolving Chinese Thinking About Deterrence: The Nuclear Dimension”, The Heritage Foundation Backgrounder, 3240, 2017, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2017-08/BG3240_0.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2020).
  • CRAWFORD, Timothy W., “The Endurance of Extended Deterrence”, T. V. Paul, v.d., der., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 277-303.
  • DOCKRILL, Saki, “The Road to NSC 162/2”, Eisenhower’s New-Look National Security Policy, 1953–61, Palgrave Macmillan, London 1996.
  • EROL, Mehmet Seyfettin -Şafak Oğuz, “Karma Savaş Teorisi ve Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı”, Türk Dünyası İncelemeleri Dergisi, 18(2), Kış 2018, s. 399-415.
  • FOUCAULT, Michel, Hapishanenin Doğuşu, İmge, Ankara 2015.
  • FREEDMAN, Lawrence, Deterrence, Polity Press, London 2004.
  • FREEDMAN, Lawrence, Raghavan, Srinath, “Coercion”, Paul. D. Williams, der., Security Studies: An Introduction, Routledge, New York 2008, s. 216-228.
  • GEORGE, Alexander L., Smoke, Richard, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice, Columbia University Press, New York 1974.
  • GEORGE, Alexander L., The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Westview Press, Boulder CO 1994.
  • GOLDSTEIN, Seth M. v.d., “Deterrence Theory”, John T. Ishiyama-Marijke Breuning der., 21st Century Political Science: A Reference Handbook, Sage, Thousand Oaks, California 2011, s. 368-375.
  • GÜNDOĞDU, Emre, “Uluslararası İlişkilerde Caydırma Teorisi”, Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(2), 2016, s. 1-22.
  • HEUSER, Beatrice, “The Development of NATO’s Nuclear Strategy”, Contemporary European History, 4(1), 1995, s. 37-66.
  • HEYWOOD, Andrew, Global Politics, Palgrave, London 2011.
  • HUTH, Paul, “Deterrence and International Conflict: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debates”, Annual Review of Political Science, 2, 1999, s. 25-48.
  • HUTH, Paul-Bruce Russett, “Deterrence Failure and Crisis Escalation”, International Studies Quarterly, 32(1), 1988, s. 29-45.
  • JERVIS, Robert, “Deterrence and Perception”, International Security, 7(3), 1983, s. 3-30.
  • JERVIS, Robert, “Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence”, World Politics, 41(2), 1989, s. 183-207.
  • KNOPF, Jeffrey W., “Three Items in One: Deterrence as Concept, Research Program and Political Issue”, T. V. Paul v.d., der., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 31–57.
  • LEBLEBİCİ, Vahit-Oktay Bingöl, “İran-P5+1 Nükleer Program Görüşmelerinde Gelinen Aşama ve Bölgesel Etkileri”, Merkez Strateji Enstitüsü, http://merkezstrateji.com/assets/media/07-150107-rp07-iran-nuekleer-s2.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 17.06.2020).
  • LEBOW, Richard N., “Misconceptions in American Strategic Assessment”, Political Science Quarterly, 97(2), 1982, s. 187-206.
  • LEBOW, Richard N.-Stein, Janice G., “Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent Variable”, World Politics, 42(3), 1990, s. 336-369.
  • LEVY, Jack S., “When Do Deterrent Threats Work”, British Journal of Political Science, 18(4), 1988, s. 485-512.
  • MAZARR, “Michael Understanding Deterrence”, Rand Cooperation, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE295/RAND_PE295.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.06. 2020).
  • MEHMETCİK, Hakan, “21. Yüzyıl için Caydırıcılık: Teori ve Pratikte Neler Değişti”, Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, 11(22), 2011, s. 31-59.
  • MINTZ, Alex-Karl DeRouen, Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2010.
  • MORGAN, Patrick M., Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis, Sage, Beverly Hills, California 1983.
  • NEAL, John, “Deterrence in a Hybrid Environment: Defending Against Non-Nuclear Threats, Per Concordiam, 10(1), 2020, s. 17-23.
  • PAPE, Robert A., “Coercion and Military Strategy: Why Denial Works and Punishment Doesn’t”, Journal of Strategic Studies 15, 4, December 1992, s. 423-475.
  • PAUL, Thazha V., “Complex Deterrence: An Introduction”, T. V. Paul v.d., der., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 1-30.
  • PIERCE, William v.d., “Countering Gray Zone Wars-Understanding Coercive Gradualism”, Parameters, 45(3), 2015, s. 51-55.
  • QUINLIVAN, James T.- Olga Oliker, “Nuclear Deterrence in Europe: Russian Approaches to a New Environment and Implications for the United States”, Rand Report www.rand.org/content/.../RAND_MG1075.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2020).
  • RUSSETT, Bruce M., “The Calculus of Deterrence”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 7(2), 1963, s. 97-109.
  • SCHELLING, Thomas, Arms and Influence, Yale University Press, New Haven 2008.
  • SCHELLING, Thomas, The Strategy of Conflict, Harvard University Press, Cambridge 1980.
  • STEIN, Janice G., “Rational Deterrence Against Irrational Adversaries”, T. V. Paul v.d., der., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 61-70.
  • SULLIVAN, Mark P., “The Mechanism for Strategic Coercion Denial or Second Order Change”, Faculty of the School of Advanced Airpower Studies, Alabama 1995, (Unpublished Master Thesis), https://media.defense.gov/2018/Jan/02/2001862446/-1/-1/0/T_SULLIVAN_MECHANISM_FOR_STRATEGIC_COERCION.PDF, (Erişim Tarihi: 3.01.2021).
  • TEİFUKOVA, Riana-Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, Russian Hybrid War: From Theory to Practice”, Uluslararası Kriz ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), Ekim 2017, s. 33-67.
Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 13 - 50, 31.05.2021

Abstract

References

  • “Asker Gönderme Meclis’te Kabul Edildi: Mehmetçik Katar’a”, Hürriyet, https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/asker-gonderme-mecliste-kabul-edildi-mehmetcik-katara-40483245, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.03.2021).
  • “Deterrence Operations: Joint Operations Concept version 2.0.”, US DOD JOC, https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/ 36/Documents/Doctrine/concepts/joc_deterrence.pdf?ver=2017-12-28-162015-337 (Erişim Tarihi: 28.05.2020).
  • “Libya Tezkeresi TBMM Genel Kurulu’nda Kabul Edildi”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/libya/libya-tezkeresi-tbmm-genel-kurulunda-kabul-edildi/1690170, (Erişim Tarihi: 21.01.2021).
  • “Office of the Secretary of Defense-2018”, Nuclear Posture Review, https://dod.defense.gov/News/SpecialReports/2018Nuclear PostureReview.aspx., (Erişim Tarihi: 06.07.2020).
  • “SHBP-Soviet Hydrogen Bomb Program”, Atomic Heritage Foundation, https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/soviet-hydrogen-bomb-program, (Erişim Tarihi: 07.06.202).
  • AÇIKMEŞE, Sinem Akgül, “Algı mı, Söylem mi? Kopenhag Okulu ve Yeni Klasik Gerçekçilikte Güvenlik Tehditleri”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, 8(30), Yaz 2011, s. 43-73.
  • ANDENAES, Johannes, “Deterrence: A Historical Perspective”, Jrank, https://law.jrank.org/pages/956/Deterrence-historical-perspective.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 17.04. 2020).
  • ARREGUÍN-TOFT, Ivan, “Unconventional Deterrence: How the Weak Deter the Strong”, T. V. Paul v.d., der., Complex Deterrence:Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 204-221.
  • ARREGUÍN-TOFT, Ivan, How the Weak Win Wars, A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2005.
  • BEAUFRE, Andre, Deterrence and Strategy, Praeger, New York 1965.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay, “Changing Balancing Behaviors in Turkish Foreign Policy During AKP Period (2002-2019)”, Akademik Bakış, 13(25), 2019, s. 53-77.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay, “Devlet Dışı Aktörler ve Diplomasi”, Oktay Bingöl-Selma Şekercioğlu, der., Diplomaside Değişim, Kuramlar, Kavramlar ve Uygulamalar, Barış Kitap, Ankara 2020.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay, “Rusya’nın Nükleer Caydırma Konsepti”, Merkez Strateji Enstitüsü, Rapor No. 0012, http://merkezstrateji.com/assets/media/12-rapor-012-rus-nuek-s1.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 14.05. 2020).
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay, Başarısız Devletler: Kavramlar, Nedenler ve Sonuçlar, Barış Kitap, Ankara 2016.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay-Ali Bilgin Varlık, 15 Temmuz Sonrası Türk Ordusu: Kriz ve Çıkış, Barış Kitap, Ankara 2017.
  • BİNGÖL, Oktay-Ali Bilgin Varlık, Güvenlik Çalışmaları-I: Kuramsal Yaklaşımlar, Hiper Kitap, İstanbul, 2020.
  • CHARNYSH, Volha, “A Brief History of Nuclear Proliferation”, https://www.wagingpeace.org›uploads›2012/11, (Erişim Tarihi: 16.05.2020).
  • CHENG, Dean, “Chinese Views on Deterrence”, Joint Force Quarterly 60, https://www.questia.com/magazine/1G1-275489748/chinese-views-on-deterrence-celebration-of-50th-anniversary, (Erişim Tarihi:11.08.2020).
  • CHENG, Dean, “Evolving Chinese Thinking About Deterrence: The Nuclear Dimension”, The Heritage Foundation Backgrounder, 3240, 2017, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2017-08/BG3240_0.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2020).
  • CRAWFORD, Timothy W., “The Endurance of Extended Deterrence”, T. V. Paul, v.d., der., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 277-303.
  • DOCKRILL, Saki, “The Road to NSC 162/2”, Eisenhower’s New-Look National Security Policy, 1953–61, Palgrave Macmillan, London 1996.
  • EROL, Mehmet Seyfettin -Şafak Oğuz, “Karma Savaş Teorisi ve Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı”, Türk Dünyası İncelemeleri Dergisi, 18(2), Kış 2018, s. 399-415.
  • FOUCAULT, Michel, Hapishanenin Doğuşu, İmge, Ankara 2015.
  • FREEDMAN, Lawrence, Deterrence, Polity Press, London 2004.
  • FREEDMAN, Lawrence, Raghavan, Srinath, “Coercion”, Paul. D. Williams, der., Security Studies: An Introduction, Routledge, New York 2008, s. 216-228.
  • GEORGE, Alexander L., Smoke, Richard, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice, Columbia University Press, New York 1974.
  • GEORGE, Alexander L., The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, Westview Press, Boulder CO 1994.
  • GOLDSTEIN, Seth M. v.d., “Deterrence Theory”, John T. Ishiyama-Marijke Breuning der., 21st Century Political Science: A Reference Handbook, Sage, Thousand Oaks, California 2011, s. 368-375.
  • GÜNDOĞDU, Emre, “Uluslararası İlişkilerde Caydırma Teorisi”, Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(2), 2016, s. 1-22.
  • HEUSER, Beatrice, “The Development of NATO’s Nuclear Strategy”, Contemporary European History, 4(1), 1995, s. 37-66.
  • HEYWOOD, Andrew, Global Politics, Palgrave, London 2011.
  • HUTH, Paul, “Deterrence and International Conflict: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debates”, Annual Review of Political Science, 2, 1999, s. 25-48.
  • HUTH, Paul-Bruce Russett, “Deterrence Failure and Crisis Escalation”, International Studies Quarterly, 32(1), 1988, s. 29-45.
  • JERVIS, Robert, “Deterrence and Perception”, International Security, 7(3), 1983, s. 3-30.
  • JERVIS, Robert, “Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence”, World Politics, 41(2), 1989, s. 183-207.
  • KNOPF, Jeffrey W., “Three Items in One: Deterrence as Concept, Research Program and Political Issue”, T. V. Paul v.d., der., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 31–57.
  • LEBLEBİCİ, Vahit-Oktay Bingöl, “İran-P5+1 Nükleer Program Görüşmelerinde Gelinen Aşama ve Bölgesel Etkileri”, Merkez Strateji Enstitüsü, http://merkezstrateji.com/assets/media/07-150107-rp07-iran-nuekleer-s2.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 17.06.2020).
  • LEBOW, Richard N., “Misconceptions in American Strategic Assessment”, Political Science Quarterly, 97(2), 1982, s. 187-206.
  • LEBOW, Richard N.-Stein, Janice G., “Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent Variable”, World Politics, 42(3), 1990, s. 336-369.
  • LEVY, Jack S., “When Do Deterrent Threats Work”, British Journal of Political Science, 18(4), 1988, s. 485-512.
  • MAZARR, “Michael Understanding Deterrence”, Rand Cooperation, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE295/RAND_PE295.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.06. 2020).
  • MEHMETCİK, Hakan, “21. Yüzyıl için Caydırıcılık: Teori ve Pratikte Neler Değişti”, Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, 11(22), 2011, s. 31-59.
  • MINTZ, Alex-Karl DeRouen, Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2010.
  • MORGAN, Patrick M., Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis, Sage, Beverly Hills, California 1983.
  • NEAL, John, “Deterrence in a Hybrid Environment: Defending Against Non-Nuclear Threats, Per Concordiam, 10(1), 2020, s. 17-23.
  • PAPE, Robert A., “Coercion and Military Strategy: Why Denial Works and Punishment Doesn’t”, Journal of Strategic Studies 15, 4, December 1992, s. 423-475.
  • PAUL, Thazha V., “Complex Deterrence: An Introduction”, T. V. Paul v.d., der., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 1-30.
  • PIERCE, William v.d., “Countering Gray Zone Wars-Understanding Coercive Gradualism”, Parameters, 45(3), 2015, s. 51-55.
  • QUINLIVAN, James T.- Olga Oliker, “Nuclear Deterrence in Europe: Russian Approaches to a New Environment and Implications for the United States”, Rand Report www.rand.org/content/.../RAND_MG1075.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2020).
  • RUSSETT, Bruce M., “The Calculus of Deterrence”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 7(2), 1963, s. 97-109.
  • SCHELLING, Thomas, Arms and Influence, Yale University Press, New Haven 2008.
  • SCHELLING, Thomas, The Strategy of Conflict, Harvard University Press, Cambridge 1980.
  • STEIN, Janice G., “Rational Deterrence Against Irrational Adversaries”, T. V. Paul v.d., der., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2009, s. 61-70.
  • SULLIVAN, Mark P., “The Mechanism for Strategic Coercion Denial or Second Order Change”, Faculty of the School of Advanced Airpower Studies, Alabama 1995, (Unpublished Master Thesis), https://media.defense.gov/2018/Jan/02/2001862446/-1/-1/0/T_SULLIVAN_MECHANISM_FOR_STRATEGIC_COERCION.PDF, (Erişim Tarihi: 3.01.2021).
  • TEİFUKOVA, Riana-Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, Russian Hybrid War: From Theory to Practice”, Uluslararası Kriz ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), Ekim 2017, s. 33-67.
There are 55 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Political Science
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Oktay Bingöl 0000-0002-4794-5656

Publication Date May 31, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 5 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Bingöl, O. (2021). 21. Yüzyılda Caydırma Teorisi ve Pratiğinin Değişimi. Uluslararası Kriz Ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 13-50.