KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİNİN BÜYÜME ANALİZİ: 1971-2021 DÖNEMİ FOURİER ANALİZİ

Year 2024, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 22 - 37, 30.06.2024

Müşerref Arık , Melike Buse Akcan

Abstract

Ülkelerin ekonomik olarak sahip oldukları güç ve rekabet edebilirliği, ekonomik büyüme ile ölçümlenmekte ve literatürde ekonomik büyümeyi ele alan çalışmalara sıklıkla rastlanılmaktadır. Ekonomik büyümenin kırılgan 5’li ülkelerinde sürdürülebilirliği ve sürdürülebilirlik noktasında sektörel etkilerin incelenmesi için analize tabii tutulan değişkenler Hindistan, Brezilya, Endonezya, Türkiye ve Güney Afrika ülkeleri için genel büyüme, tarım sektöründeki büyüme, endüstriyel büyüme ve hizmet büyümesi olup, 1971-2021 arasındaki yıllık veriler ele alınarak inceleme gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada yeni nesil birim kök testi olarak tanımlanan Fourier ADF birim kök testinden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışmada ele alınan ülkelerde genel büyüme ile tarım, endüstri ve hizmet sektörleri büyümesinin sürdürülebilirliği incelenmiştir. İnceleme sonucunda ülke ve sektör bazında analiz sonuçlarının değişiklik gösterdiği görülmüştür. Sürdürülebilirlik değerlendirildiğinde Brezilya’da tarım sektöründe, Hindistan için genel bazda, Endonezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye için ise; tüm sektörlerde ekonomik büyümenin sürdürülebilir olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ulaşılan ampirik sonuçlar doğrultusunda sektörel gelişimi teşvik eden ekonomi politik düzenlemelere gidilerek ekonomik büyümede sürdürülebilirliğin sağlanması yönünde öneride bulunulabilecektir.

Keywords

Fourier ADF, Ekonomik Büyüme, Sürdürülebilirlik, Kırılgan 5’li Ülkeleri

GROWTH ANALYSIS OF THE FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES: FOURIER ANALYSIS FOR THE PERIOD 1971-2021

Abstract

The economic strength and competitiveness of countries are measured by economic growth, and studies on economic growth are frequently encountered in the literature. The variables analyzed to examine the sustainability of economic growth in the fragile 5 countries and the sectoral effects at the point of sustainability are general growth, growth in the agricultural sector, industrial growth and service growth for India, Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa countries, and the analysis was carried out by considering the annual data between 1971-2021. Fourier ADF unit root test, which is defined as a new generation unit root test, was utilized in the study. The study analyses the sustainability of overall growth and growth in agriculture, industry and services sectors in the countries considered in the study. As a result of the analysis, it is seen that the results of the analyses vary on country and sector basis. When sustainability is evaluated, it is concluded that economic growth is sustainable in the agricultural sector in Brazil, in general for India, and in all sectors for Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. In line with the empirical results, it can be suggested to ensure sustainability in economic growth by making economic policy arrangements that encourage sectoral development.

Keywords

Fourier ADF, Economic Growth, Sustainability, Fragile 5 Countries

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