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Testing The Relationship Of Macroeconomic Indicators With Financial Dollarization: Turkey Example

Year 2024, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 232 - 256, 28.10.2024
https://doi.org/10.70101/ussmad.1550951

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between dollarization and macroeconomic indicators in Turkey was examined. In the study, the composite dollarization index created for Turkey was determined as the dependent variable, and Turkey's GDP growth rate, inflation rate, domestic borrowing interest, real effective exchange rate and the ratio of current budget balance to GDP were determined as independent variables. variables. The time series of these variables cover the period 2012Q4-2023Q3. A two-regime Markov change model was applied to analyze the data. According to the research findings, both Regime 1 and Regime 2 results detected a negative relationship between CDI and real effective exchange rate. While inflation did not have a significant impact on financial dollarization in Regime 1, CDI also increased in Regime 2, especially during periods when inflation was high. Similarly, economic growth in Regime 1 did not have a significant impact on financial dollarization, while economic growth in Regime 2 caused the CDI to increase. In both Regime 1 and Regime 2, CDI also increased with the increase in domestic borrowing interest rates and the increase in the ratio of the current budget deficit to GDP.

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Makroekonomik İndikatörlerin Finansal Dolarizasyonla İlişkisinin Test Edilmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2024, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 232 - 256, 28.10.2024
https://doi.org/10.70101/ussmad.1550951

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de dolarizasyonun makroekonomik indikatörler ile ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, Türkiye için oluşturulan bileşik dolarizasyon endeksi (CDI) bağımlı değişken, Türkiye’nin GSYH büyüme oranı, enflasyon oranı, iç borçlanma faizi, reel efektif döviz kuru ve cari bütçe dengesinin GSYH’ye oranı bağımsız değişken olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu değişkenlere ait zaman serileri, 2012Ç4-2023Ç3 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Verilerin analizinde iki rejimli bir Markov değişim modeli uygulanmıştır. Araştırma bulgularına göre hem Rejim 1 hem de Rejim 2 sonuçları, CDI ile reel efektif döviz kuru arasında negatif bir ilişkiyi tespit etmiştir. Rejim 1’de enflasyonun finansal dolarizasyon üzerinde anlamlı etkisi bulunmazken, özellikle Rejim 2’deki yüksek enflasyon yaşanan dönemlerde CDI de yükselmiştir. Benzer şekilde, Rejim 1’de ekonomik büyüme finansal dolarizasyona anlamlı etki etmezken, Rejim 2’de ekonomik büyümenin azalması CDI’nın artmasına neden olmuştur. Hem Rejim 1 hem de Rejim 2’de, iç borçlanma faizi arttıkça ve de cari bütçe açığının GSYİH’ye oranı arttıkça CDI de artmıştır.

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There are 94 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Dr.öğretim Üyesi Serkan Demirel 0000-0002-7285-1504

Early Pub Date October 27, 2024
Publication Date October 28, 2024
Submission Date September 16, 2024
Acceptance Date October 21, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 4 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Demirel, D. Ü. S. (2024). Makroekonomik İndikatörlerin Finansal Dolarizasyonla İlişkisinin Test Edilmesi: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası Sosyal Siyasal Ve Mali Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(2), 232-256. https://doi.org/10.70101/ussmad.1550951