YEŞİLIRMAK DELTASI’NDA KIYI EROZYONUNUN DOĞRUSAL REGRESYON ORANI YÖNTEMİYLE ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada ulusal öneme haiz sulak alanlar kapsamında tescillenen Yeşilırmak Deltası’nın yaklaşık 18,5 km’lik kıyı bölümünde gerçekleşen erozyon uzaktan algılama ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. 1985–2022 periyodunda gerçekleşen kıyı çizgisi değişimlerinin belirlenmesi ve erozyonun derecesinin anlaşılabilmesi için 1985, 1990, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2017 ve 2022 yıllarına ait Landsat-5 TM/Landsat-8 OLI uydu görüntüleri kullanılmıştır. Uydu görüntülerinden kıyı çizgilerinin belirlenmesinde normalize fark su indeksi (NDWI) ve modifiye normalize fark su indeksi (MNDWI) entegre edilmiştir. Yıllık kıyı çizgisi değişim oranları 1985–2022 periyodunda sekiz farklı yıla ait kıyı çizgilerinden doğrusal regresyon oranı (LRR) yöntemiyle %95 güven düzeyinde hesaplanmış, Yeşilırmak Nehri’nin batı kesimindeki Bölge-1’de maksimum -25,8 m/yıl, doğu kesimindeki Bölge-2’de maksimum - 7,7 m/yıl’a ulaşan erozyon oranı belirlenmiştir. Kıyı çizgisi değişimleri sınıflandırıldığında deltanın %34’ü yüksek, %9’u orta, %18’i düşük derecede olmak üzere %61’inde erozyon gerçekleştiği anlaşılmıştır. 1985– 2022 periyodunda erozyonla kaybedilen alanlar çakıştırma analizi ile belirlenmiş, Bölge-1’de 179,23 ha ve Bölge-2’de 82,22 ha olmak üzere toplam 261,45 ha alanın erozyon ile kaybedildiği görülmüştür. Analiz sonuçları, Yeşilırmak Deltası kıyılarındaki erozyon, birikim ve stabil alanların belirlenerek kıyı dinamiklerinin ve erozyon tehlikesinin daha iyi anlaşılmasına katkı sağlamış ve kıyı çizgisi değişimlerinin belirlenmesinde Landsat görüntüleri ve LRR yönteminin etkinliğini ortaya çıkarmıştır

Keywords

• Yeşilırmak Deltası
• Kıyı Çizgisi
• Erozyon
• Doğrusal Regresyon Oranı
• Uzaktan Algılama
• Landsat

Analysis of Coastal Erosion in Yeşilirmak Delta Using Linear Regression Rate Method

Abstract

This study investigated erosion along the approximately 18.5 km coastal section of the Yeşilırmak Delta, a nationally important wetland, using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Landsat-5 TM/Landsat-8 OLI satellite images from 1985 to 2022 (1985, 1990, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2017, and 2022) were used to determine shoreline changes. The shoreline determination process involved the combination of the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI). Annual rates of shoreline change were calculated using the linear regression rate (LRR) method within a 95% confidence level. Results showed a maximum erosion rate of -25.8 m/year in Zone-1, located in the western part of the Yeşilırmak River, and -7.7 m/year in Zone2, situated in the eastern part. Erosion affected 61% of the delta, with 34% experiencing high-level erosion, 9% medium-level erosion, and 18% low-level erosion. Overlay analysis identified a total loss of 261.45 ha during 1985–2022, with 179.23 ha in Zone-1 and 82.22 ha in Zone-2. These findings enhance understanding of coastal dynamics by delineating erosion, accretion, and stable areas in the Yeşilırmak Delta. Furthermore, the study highlights the effectiveness of Landsat images and the LRR method in assessing shoreline changes.

Keywords

• Yeşilırmak Delta
• Shoreline
• Erosion
• Linear Regression Rate
• Remote Sensing
• Landsat

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