DAĞLIK BİR HAVZADA UYDU VERİSİ DESTEKLİ HİDROLOJİK MODELLEME

Abstract

Su kaynakları planlama ve yönetimi çalışmalarının birçoğunda yağış-akış simülasyonunu gerçekleştirmek için hidrolojik modelleme yapılması büyük önem arz etmektedir. Bu bağlamda, kar
erimesinin etkili olduğu dağlık bir havza olan Afyonkarahisar Çay Deresi havzasında, yağışlı-yağışsız dönemi birlikte değerlendiren kavramsal, yarı-dağılımlı ve uydu verisi destekli bir modelleme çalışması uygulanmıştır. 2011-2013 su yılları arasında günlük akımların simülasyonu HEC-HMS modeli kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Modelleme süreci; hazırlık aşamaları, parametre seçimi, kalibrasyon (2011-2012 yılları) ve validasyon (2013 yılı) aşamalarından oluşmaktadır. Model akım performansı NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) ve MAE (Mean Absolute Error) değerlendirme ölçütleri ile test edilmiş olup, kalibrasyon periyodu için değerleri sırasıyla 0,89; 0,3 m3/s ve 0,2 m3/s  iken; validasyon periyodu için 0,78; 0,4 m3/s ve 0,2 m3/s bulunmuştur. Akım sonuçlarının yanında IMS (Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System) kar kaplı alan ürünleriyle de modelin doğruluğu desteklenmiştir. Çalışma havzasında başarılı sonuçların elde edildiği HEC-HMS hidrolojik modelinin kullanıma hazır olması; Çay Deresi mansap kısmında yer alan Çay ilçe yerleşiminin taşkın tehlikesi, sulama-içme suyu amaçlı Çay Barajının hazne işletimi ve Çay Deresinin döküldüğü Eber Gölünün ekolojik analizi çalışmaları açısından faydalı olabilir. 

Keywords

• Hidrolojik modelleme
• HEC-HMS
• Yağış-akış
• Uydu verisi
• Afyonkarahisar Çay deresi

Satellite-supported Hydrological Modeling in a Mountainous Basin

Abstract

In many of the water resource planning and management studies, hydrological modeling is essential to perform precipitation-runoff simulations. In this context, a conceptual, semi-distributed and satellite-supported modeling study considering both wet and dry periods is applied to the Afyonkarahisar Çay watershed, which is a snow-dominated mountainous basin. The simulation of daily streamflow between 2011-2013 water years is implemented using HEC-HMS model. The modeling process consists of data preparation, parameter selection, calibration (2011-2012 years) and validation (2013 year) steps. The model streamflow performance is tested with NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) evaluation criteria, and the values are 0,89; 0,3 m3/s, 0,2 m3/s for the calibration period and 0,78; 0,4 m3/s, 0,2 m3/s for the validation period, respectively. Besides of the streamflow results, model accuracy is also supported with IMS (Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System) snow covered area products. The ready-to-use HEC-HMS hydrological model where successful results are obtained in the study basin can be useful for flood hazard mapping of Çay district settlement in the downstream of Çay stream; reservoir operation of Çay dam for irrigation-potable water purposes; and ecological analysis of the Eber Lake where the Çay stream flows into. 

Keywords

• Hydrological modeling
• HEC-HMS
• Precipitation-runoff
• Satellite data
• Afyonkarahisar Çay stream

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