DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY

Tuğba Çelebioğlu; Mete Tayanç; Halil Oruç

doi:10.17482/uumfd.881416

Research Article

DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY

Year 2021, Volume: 26 Issue: 3, 1003 - 1020, 31.12.2021

Tuğba Çelebioğlu Mete Tayanç Halil Oruç

https://doi.org/10.17482/uumfd.881416

Cited By: 1

Abstract

A comprehensive study has been carried out for Turkey to investigate temperature variabilities and trends in a 50-year period of 1969-2018. Daily temperature data belonging to 174 meteorological stations which was collected from Turkish Meteorological State Service was used in this research. Temporal and spatial variability of temperature have been studied by linear regression, 3-yr moving average and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Yearly and seasonally average temperature of each region has been formed from analysis of daily average temperature for this time period. Temperature increase in this recent half century time period is found to be in the Eastern Anatolia Region with a value of 1.74°C/50 years. The regions with the highest seasonal temperature increases are estimated to be the Aegean Region (1.61°C) in autumn, Eastern Anatolia Region (2.37°C) in winter, Eastern Anatolia Region (1.84°C) in spring and Marmara Region in summer (2.79°C). Moreover, yearly temperature trends showed increasing trends at 99% confidence interval in most stations. Increasing trends at 99% confidence interval have been confirmed in most regions from analyzing seasonally and yearly temperature trends.

Keywords

Climate Change, Temperature, Mann-Kendall Test, Trend Analysis, Turkey

References

1. Abbasnia, M., Toros, H., 2020. Trend analysis of weather extremes across the coastal and non-coastal areas (case study: Turkey). J. Earth Syst. Sci. 129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-1359-3
2. Akkoyunlu, B.O., Baltaci, H., Tayanc, M., 2018. The Climatology, precipitation types and atmospheric conditions of extreme precipitation events in western Turkey. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 1–30. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-29
3. Alhaji, U.U., Yusuf, A.S., Edet, C.O., Oche, C.O., Agbo, E.P., 2018. Trend Analysis of Temperature in Gombe State Using Mann Kendall Trend Test. J. Sci. Res. Reports 20, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.9734/jsrr/2018/42029
4. Brown, T. B., Barry, R. G., & Doesken, N. J. (1992, September). An exploratory study of temperature trends for Colorado paired mountain-high plains stations. In American Meteorological Society sixth conference on mountain meteorology, Portland, OR (pp. 181-184)
5. Can, A., & Atimtay, A. T. (2002). Time series analysis of mean temperature data in Turkey. Applied Time Series, 4, 20-23.
6. Chang, H., Nyhart, J. ve Goeltner, C. (1998) Computer models as support for complex negotiaitions, International Conference of the Society for General System Research, Hungarian Academy of Science, Budapest, 40-48. doi:11.3267/2553/8911.324.260
7. Climatic Research Unit, 2020. Access Address: https://sites.uea.ac.uk/documents/421974/1295957/CRU-Info+sheet+1-2020.pdf/537e7c57-a746-0af2-5e7e-da3348cff961 (Date of Access: 10.01.2021)
8. Dash, S. K. , & Hunt, J. C. R. (2007). Variability of climate change in India. Current Science (00113891), 93(6).
9. Demir, A. D., Demir, Y., Şahin, Ü., & Meral, R. (2017). Bingöl İlinde Sıcaklık ve Yağışların Trend Analizi ve Tarıma Etkisi. Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(3), 284-291. DEMİR, A. D., DEMİR, Y., ŞAHİN, Ü., & MERAL, R. (2017). Bingöl İlinde Sıcaklık ve Yağışların Trend Analizi ve Tarıma Etkisi. Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(3), 284-291.
10. Demir, İ., Kılıç, G., Coşkun, M., & Sümer, U. M. (2008). Türkiye’de maksimum, minimum ve ortalama hava sıcaklıkları ile yağış dizilerinde gözlenen değişiklikler ve eğilimler. TMMOB İklim Değişimi Sempozyumu, Bildiriler Kitabı, 69-84.
11. ERCAN, B., & YÜCE, M. İ. (2018). Kilis ili aylık sıcaklık ve yağış verileri trend analizi. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 9(2), 947-953.
12. Fatma, E. S. E. N., & Avcı, V. Malatya Havzasi’nda Sicaklik Ve Yağişin Trend Analizi. İnönü University International Journal of Social Sciences (INIJOSS), 8(1), 230-246.
13. Kendall, M. G. (1948). Rank correlation methods.
14. Kindap, T., Unal, A., Ozdemir, H., Bozkurt, D., Utku, U., Demir, G., Tayanc, M., Karac, M., 2012. Quantification of the Urban Heat Island Under a Changing Climate over Anatolian Peninsula. Hum. Soc. Dimens. Clim. Chang. https://doi.org/10.5772/51244
15. Li, Q., Chen, Y., Shen, Y., Li, X., Xu, J., 2011. Spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China. J. Geogr. Sci. 21, 1007–1018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-011-0896-8
16. Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 245-259.
17. Milentijević, N., Bačević, N., Ristić, D., Valjarević, A., Pantelić, M., Kićović, D., 2020. Application of Mann-Kendal (MK) test in trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation: Case of Mačva district (Serbia). Univ. Thought - Publ. Nat. Sci. 10, 37–43. https://doi.org/10.5937/univtho10-24774
18. Oktay Akkoyunlu, B., Baltaci, H., Tayanc, M., 2019. Atmospheric conditions of extreme precipitation events in western Turkey for the period 2006-2015. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 19, 107–119. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-107-2019.
19. Owen, C. (1982) Game Theory, Academic Press, New York.
20. Pachauri, Rajendra K., et al. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Ipcc, 2014.
21. Radhakrishnan, K., Sivaraman, I., Kumar, S., Subhas, J., Subhendu, S., 2017. A Climate Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall in India. https://doi.org/10.5958/2320-642X.2017.00014.X
22. Saboohi, R., Soltani, S., Khodagholi, M., 2012. Trend analysis of temperature parameters in Iran 529–547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0590-5
23. Saplioğlu, K., & Murat, K. L. İ. T. (2012). İklim Değişikliğinin Afyon İlindeki Yağiş ve Sicakliklara Etkisinin Araştirilmasi ve Trendlerinin Belirlenmesi. Engineering Sciences, 7(4), 696-705.
24. Smith, J. (1991a) Platelike dynamic vibration absorbers, Journal of Engineering for Industry, 97(1), 88-93.
25. Smith, J. (1991b) Beamlike dynamic vibration absorbers, Acoustica, 44(2), 98-108.
26. Sneyers, R. (1990). On the statistical analysis of series of observations. WMO Technical Note (143). World Meteorological Organization, Geneve.
27. Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M. M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., ... & Midgley, P. M. (2014). Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of IPCC the intergovernmental panel on climate change.
28. Karaca, M., Tayanç, M., & Toros, H. (1995). Effects of urbanization on climate of Istanbul and Ankara. Atmospheric Environment, 29(23), 3411-3421.
29. Tayanç, M., Karaca, M., Yenigün, O., 1997. Annual and seasonal air temperature trend patterns of climate change and urbanization effects in relation to air pollutants in Turkey. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 102, 1909–1919. https://doi.org/10.1029/96jd02108
30. Tayanc, M., & Toros, H. (1997). Urbanization effects on regional climate change in the case of four large cities of Turkey. Climatic Change, 35(4), 501-524. DOI: 10.1023/A:1005357915441
31. Tayanç, M., İm, U., Doğruel, M., Karaca, M., 2009. Climate change in Turkey for the last half century. Clim. Change 94, 483–502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9511-0
32. Toros, H., Abbasnia, M., Sagdic, M., Tayanç, M., 2017. Long-Term Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in the Megacity of Istanbul for the Development of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change. Adv. Meteorol. 2017. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6519856.
33. Ülke, A., & Özkoca, T. (2018). Sinop, Ordu ve Samsun illerinin sıcaklık verilerinde trend analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(2), 455-463. https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.351294
34. Zaval, L., Keenan, E.A., Johnson, E.J., Weber, E.U., 2014. How warm days increase belief in global warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 143–147. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2093
35. Zeleňáková, M., Purcz, P., Hlavatá, H., Blištan, P., 2015. Climate change in urban versus rural areas. Procedia Eng. 119, 1171–1180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.968
36. http://www.webadresi.web/sayfa_adi, Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2011, Konu: Parametrelerin Değişimi.
37. Zhao, L.C. ve Shao, F.M. (1997) Optimization of connecting two communication networks subject to reliability constraint, Microelectronics and Reliability, 37(4), 629-633. doi:11.3267/2553/8911.324.260

Türkiye’de Sıcaklık Değişimleri ve Trendlerin Belirlenmesi

Year 2021, Volume: 26 Issue: 3, 1003 - 1020, 31.12.2021

Tuğba Çelebioğlu Mete Tayanç Halil Oruç

https://doi.org/10.17482/uumfd.881416

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Türkiye için 1969-2018 yılları arasındaki 50 yıllık süreçte, sıcaklık değişimleri ve eğilimlerini araştırmak için geniş kapsamlı bir çalışma yapılmıştır. Bu araştırma kapsamında, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü'nden toplanan 174 meteoroloji istasyonuna ait günlük ortalama sıcaklık verileri kullanılmıştır. Yıllık ve mevsimlik ortalama sıcaklıklar, günlük ortalama sıcaklıklardan elde edilmiştir. Sıcaklığın, zamansal ve mekansal değişkenliği; lineer regresyon, 3 yıllık hareketli ortalama ve parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall testi ile incelenmiştir. Bu son yarım yüzyıllık zaman diliminde, sıcaklık artışının Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi'nde 1.74°C/50 yıl değerinde olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. En yüksek ortalama sıcaklık artışı sonbaharda Ege Bölgesi’ne (1.61°C), kış mevsiminde Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi’ne (2.37°C), ilkbaharda Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi’ne (1.84°C) ve yaz mevsiminde Marmara Bölgesi’ne (2.79°C) aittir. Ayrıca, yıllık sıcaklık trendleri çoğu istasyonda %99 güven aralığında artış şeklinde yaşanmıştır. %99 güven aralığında artan trendler, çoğu bölgede mevsimsel ve yıllık sıcaklık analizinden doğrulanmıştır.

Keywords

İklim Değişikliği, Sıcaklık, Mann-Kendall Test, Trend Analizi, Türkiye

References

1. Abbasnia, M., Toros, H., 2020. Trend analysis of weather extremes across the coastal and non-coastal areas (case study: Turkey). J. Earth Syst. Sci. 129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-1359-3
2. Akkoyunlu, B.O., Baltaci, H., Tayanc, M., 2018. The Climatology, precipitation types and atmospheric conditions of extreme precipitation events in western Turkey. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 1–30. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-29
3. Alhaji, U.U., Yusuf, A.S., Edet, C.O., Oche, C.O., Agbo, E.P., 2018. Trend Analysis of Temperature in Gombe State Using Mann Kendall Trend Test. J. Sci. Res. Reports 20, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.9734/jsrr/2018/42029
4. Brown, T. B., Barry, R. G., & Doesken, N. J. (1992, September). An exploratory study of temperature trends for Colorado paired mountain-high plains stations. In American Meteorological Society sixth conference on mountain meteorology, Portland, OR (pp. 181-184)
5. Can, A., & Atimtay, A. T. (2002). Time series analysis of mean temperature data in Turkey. Applied Time Series, 4, 20-23.
6. Chang, H., Nyhart, J. ve Goeltner, C. (1998) Computer models as support for complex negotiaitions, International Conference of the Society for General System Research, Hungarian Academy of Science, Budapest, 40-48. doi:11.3267/2553/8911.324.260
7. Climatic Research Unit, 2020. Access Address: https://sites.uea.ac.uk/documents/421974/1295957/CRU-Info+sheet+1-2020.pdf/537e7c57-a746-0af2-5e7e-da3348cff961 (Date of Access: 10.01.2021)
8. Dash, S. K. , & Hunt, J. C. R. (2007). Variability of climate change in India. Current Science (00113891), 93(6).
9. Demir, A. D., Demir, Y., Şahin, Ü., & Meral, R. (2017). Bingöl İlinde Sıcaklık ve Yağışların Trend Analizi ve Tarıma Etkisi. Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(3), 284-291. DEMİR, A. D., DEMİR, Y., ŞAHİN, Ü., & MERAL, R. (2017). Bingöl İlinde Sıcaklık ve Yağışların Trend Analizi ve Tarıma Etkisi. Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(3), 284-291.
10. Demir, İ., Kılıç, G., Coşkun, M., & Sümer, U. M. (2008). Türkiye’de maksimum, minimum ve ortalama hava sıcaklıkları ile yağış dizilerinde gözlenen değişiklikler ve eğilimler. TMMOB İklim Değişimi Sempozyumu, Bildiriler Kitabı, 69-84.
11. ERCAN, B., & YÜCE, M. İ. (2018). Kilis ili aylık sıcaklık ve yağış verileri trend analizi. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 9(2), 947-953.
12. Fatma, E. S. E. N., & Avcı, V. Malatya Havzasi’nda Sicaklik Ve Yağişin Trend Analizi. İnönü University International Journal of Social Sciences (INIJOSS), 8(1), 230-246.
13. Kendall, M. G. (1948). Rank correlation methods.
14. Kindap, T., Unal, A., Ozdemir, H., Bozkurt, D., Utku, U., Demir, G., Tayanc, M., Karac, M., 2012. Quantification of the Urban Heat Island Under a Changing Climate over Anatolian Peninsula. Hum. Soc. Dimens. Clim. Chang. https://doi.org/10.5772/51244
15. Li, Q., Chen, Y., Shen, Y., Li, X., Xu, J., 2011. Spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China. J. Geogr. Sci. 21, 1007–1018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-011-0896-8
16. Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 245-259.
17. Milentijević, N., Bačević, N., Ristić, D., Valjarević, A., Pantelić, M., Kićović, D., 2020. Application of Mann-Kendal (MK) test in trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation: Case of Mačva district (Serbia). Univ. Thought - Publ. Nat. Sci. 10, 37–43. https://doi.org/10.5937/univtho10-24774
18. Oktay Akkoyunlu, B., Baltaci, H., Tayanc, M., 2019. Atmospheric conditions of extreme precipitation events in western Turkey for the period 2006-2015. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 19, 107–119. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-107-2019.
19. Owen, C. (1982) Game Theory, Academic Press, New York.
20. Pachauri, Rajendra K., et al. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Ipcc, 2014.
21. Radhakrishnan, K., Sivaraman, I., Kumar, S., Subhas, J., Subhendu, S., 2017. A Climate Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall in India. https://doi.org/10.5958/2320-642X.2017.00014.X
22. Saboohi, R., Soltani, S., Khodagholi, M., 2012. Trend analysis of temperature parameters in Iran 529–547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0590-5
23. Saplioğlu, K., & Murat, K. L. İ. T. (2012). İklim Değişikliğinin Afyon İlindeki Yağiş ve Sicakliklara Etkisinin Araştirilmasi ve Trendlerinin Belirlenmesi. Engineering Sciences, 7(4), 696-705.
24. Smith, J. (1991a) Platelike dynamic vibration absorbers, Journal of Engineering for Industry, 97(1), 88-93.
25. Smith, J. (1991b) Beamlike dynamic vibration absorbers, Acoustica, 44(2), 98-108.
26. Sneyers, R. (1990). On the statistical analysis of series of observations. WMO Technical Note (143). World Meteorological Organization, Geneve.
27. Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M. M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., ... & Midgley, P. M. (2014). Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of IPCC the intergovernmental panel on climate change.
28. Karaca, M., Tayanç, M., & Toros, H. (1995). Effects of urbanization on climate of Istanbul and Ankara. Atmospheric Environment, 29(23), 3411-3421.
29. Tayanç, M., Karaca, M., Yenigün, O., 1997. Annual and seasonal air temperature trend patterns of climate change and urbanization effects in relation to air pollutants in Turkey. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 102, 1909–1919. https://doi.org/10.1029/96jd02108
30. Tayanc, M., & Toros, H. (1997). Urbanization effects on regional climate change in the case of four large cities of Turkey. Climatic Change, 35(4), 501-524. DOI: 10.1023/A:1005357915441
31. Tayanç, M., İm, U., Doğruel, M., Karaca, M., 2009. Climate change in Turkey for the last half century. Clim. Change 94, 483–502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9511-0
32. Toros, H., Abbasnia, M., Sagdic, M., Tayanç, M., 2017. Long-Term Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in the Megacity of Istanbul for the Development of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change. Adv. Meteorol. 2017. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6519856.
33. Ülke, A., & Özkoca, T. (2018). Sinop, Ordu ve Samsun illerinin sıcaklık verilerinde trend analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(2), 455-463. https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.351294
34. Zaval, L., Keenan, E.A., Johnson, E.J., Weber, E.U., 2014. How warm days increase belief in global warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 143–147. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2093
35. Zeleňáková, M., Purcz, P., Hlavatá, H., Blištan, P., 2015. Climate change in urban versus rural areas. Procedia Eng. 119, 1171–1180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.968
36. http://www.webadresi.web/sayfa_adi, Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2011, Konu: Parametrelerin Değişimi.
37. Zhao, L.C. ve Shao, F.M. (1997) Optimization of connecting two communication networks subject to reliability constraint, Microelectronics and Reliability, 37(4), 629-633. doi:11.3267/2553/8911.324.260

There are 37 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language	English
Subjects	Environmental Engineering
Journal Section	Research Articles
Authors	Tuğba Çelebioğlu 0000-0003-3874-573X Mete Tayanç 0000-0003-4319-3757 Halil Oruç 0000-0002-6386-0046
Publication Date	December 31, 2021
Submission Date	February 16, 2021
Acceptance Date	August 19, 2021
Published in Issue	Year 2021 Volume: 26 Issue: 3

Cite

APA	Çelebioğlu, T., Tayanç, M., & Oruç, H. (2021). DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY. Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(3), 1003-1020. https://doi.org/10.17482/uumfd.881416
AMA	Çelebioğlu T, Tayanç M, Oruç H. DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY. UUJFE. December 2021;26(3):1003-1020. doi:10.17482/uumfd.881416
Chicago	Çelebioğlu, Tuğba, Mete Tayanç, and Halil Oruç. “DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY”. Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi 26, no. 3 (December 2021): 1003-20. https://doi.org/10.17482/uumfd.881416.
EndNote	Çelebioğlu T, Tayanç M, Oruç H (December 1, 2021) DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY. Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi 26 3 1003–1020.
IEEE	T. Çelebioğlu, M. Tayanç, and H. Oruç, “DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY”, UUJFE, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 1003–1020, 2021, doi: 10.17482/uumfd.881416.
ISNAD	Çelebioğlu, Tuğba et al. “DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY”. Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi 26/3 (December 2021), 1003-1020. https://doi.org/10.17482/uumfd.881416.
JAMA	Çelebioğlu T, Tayanç M, Oruç H. DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY. UUJFE. 2021;26:1003–1020.
MLA	Çelebioğlu, Tuğba et al. “DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY”. Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 26, no. 3, 2021, pp. 1003-20, doi:10.17482/uumfd.881416.
Vancouver	Çelebioğlu T, Tayanç M, Oruç H. DETERMINATION OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES AND TRENDS IN TURKEY. UUJFE. 2021;26(3):1003-20.

Cited By

Long-term trends and variability in air temperatures of central Anatolia region, Turkey, for the period 1960–2021

Acta Geophysica

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-023-01077-6

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