KATAR'DA EKONOMİK VE FİNANSAL KALKINMANIN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Katar için 1975-2018 döneminde ekonomik büyüme, finansal gelişme, yatırım ve elektrik tüketimi arasındaki kısa ve uzun vadeli ilişkileri incelemektedir. Kapsamlı politika önerileri sunmak için Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) eşbütünleşme testi ve Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modelini (VECM) gerçekleştirdik. Bulgular, enerji-büyüme bağlantısı için koruma hipotezinin geçerliliğini desteklemektedir ve dolayısıyla enerji kullanımının azaltılmasının büyüme üzerinde önemsiz bir etkisi vardır. Evlerde enerji kullanımını ve ülke çapında AC kullanımını azaltmayı hedefleyen politikalar önerdik. Bu bağlamda, enerjinin boşa harcanmasını azaltmak ve doğal gazla çalışan tuzdan arındırma tesislerinde deniz suyundan damıtılan su kullanımında israfı önlemek için, enerji ve su tüketimindeki mali sübvansiyonlar daha da azaltılmalı, hatta kaldırılmalıdır. Politika yapıcılar ayrıca, yaz aylarında elektrik yükü kontrolü ve talep taraflı soğutmada tasarruf stratejileri için proaktif ve teşvik edici stratejiler de düşünmelidir. Bu, elektrik kullanımındaki tepe noktaların dengelenmesini sağlayabilir ve dolayısıyla gereksiz güç üretimini ve maliyetini azaltabilir.

Keywords

• Ekonomi-enerji ilişkisi
• finans-enerji ilişkisi
• VECM model
• ARDL model

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN QATAR

Abstract

This study examines the short and long-run relationships among economic growth, financial development, investment, and electricity consumption during the period between 1975 and 2018 for Qatar. We conducted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model to propose comprehensive policy recommendations. The findings support the validity of the conservation hypothesis for the energy-growth nexus, and thereby energy use reduction has an insignificant impact on the growth. We recommended policies aiming to reduce household energy use and country-wide AC usage. In this regard, financial subsidies in energy and water consumption should be reduced further, even abolished, to lower the waste use of energy and prevent extravagant water use distilled from seawater by natural gas-powered desalination plants. Policymakers should also consider proactive and incentivizing strategies for cooling electricity load control and demand-side management of cooling in summers. This might enable leveling out peaks in electricity use, and hence reduce redundant power generation and cost.

Keywords

• Energy-growth nexus
• Energy-finance nexus
• VECM model
• ARDL model

References

1. Al-Iriani, M. A. (2006). Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality. Energy Policy, 34(17), 3342–3350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.07.005
2. Al-mulali, U., & Foon Tang, C. (2013). Investigating the validity of pollution haven hypothesis in the gulf cooperation council (GCC) countries. Energy Policy, 60, 813–819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.055
3. Al-Saidi, M. (2020). Instruments of energy subsidy reforms in Arab countries — The case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Energy Reports, 6, 68–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.08.020
4. Ari, I., Akkas, E., Asutay, M., & Koç, M. (2019). Public and private investment in the hydrocarbon-based rentier economies: A case study for the GCC countries. Resources Policy, 62(September 2018), 165–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.03.016
5. Arouri, M. E. H., Ben Youssef, A., M’henni, H., & Rault, C. (2012). Energy consumption, economic growth and CO 2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries. Energy Policy, 45, 342–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.042
6. Bayram, I. Ş., Alrawi, O., Al-Naimi, H., & Koç, M. (2017). Direct load control of air conditioners in Qatar: An empirical study. 2017 6th International Conference on Renewable Energy Research and Applications, ICRERA 2017, 2017-Janua, 1007–1012. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRERA.2017.8191209
7. Bayram, İ. Ş., & Koç, M. (2017). Demand side management for peak reduction and PV integration in Qatar. Proceedings of the 2017 IEEE 14th International Conference on Networking, Sensing and Control, ICNSC 2017, 251–256. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICNSC.2017.8000100
8. Bekhet, H. A., Matar, A., & Yasmin, T. (2017). CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and financial development in GCC countries: Dynamic simultaneous equation models. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70(2017), 117–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.089

9. Ben Cheikh, N., Ben Zaied, Y., & Chevallier, J. (2021). On the nonlinear relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions within an EKC framework: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression in the MENA region. Research in International Business and Finance, 55(May), 101331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101331
10. BP. (2020). Statistical Review of World Energy, 2020 | 69th Edition (Vol. 69). https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf
11. Burnham, K. P., & Anderson, D. R. (2004). Multimodel Inference: Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection. Sociological Methods & Research, 33(2), 261–304. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124104268644
12. Charfeddine, L. (2017). The impact of energy consumption and economic development on Ecological Footprint and CO2 emissions: Evidence from a Markov Switching Equilibrium Correction Model. Energy Economics, 65, 355–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.009
13. Charfeddine, L., Yousef Al-Malk, A., & Al Korbi, K. (2018). Is it possible to improve environmental quality without reducing economic growth: Evidence from the Qatar economy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82(September 2017), 25–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.001
14. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
15. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction : Representation , Estimation , and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276.
16. Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L., Gieseke, R., & Günther, A. (2019). The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). In GFZ Data Services. https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2019.018
17. Hussein, H., & Lambert, L. A. (2020). A Rentier state under blockade: Qatar’s water-energy-food predicament from energy abundance and food insecurity to a silent water crisis. Water (Switzerland), 12(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/W12041051
18. Jammazi, R., & Aloui, C. (2015). On the interplay between energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emission nexus in the GCC countries: A comparative analysis through wavelet approaches. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 51, 1737–1751. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.073
19. Johansen, Søren. (1992). Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data. Journal of Policy Modeling, 14(3), 313–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/0161-8938(92)90003-U
20. Johansen, Soren, & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
21. Kahia, M., Ben Aïssa, M. S., & Charfeddine, L. (2016). Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs). Energy, 116, 102–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.07.126
22. Keen, S., Ayres, R. U., & Standish, R. (2019). A Note on the Role of Energy in Production. Ecological Economics, 157(August 2017), 40–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.11.002
23. Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP Author ( s ): John Kraft and Arthur Kraft Stable URL : http://www.jstor.org/stable/24806805 On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development, 3(2), 401–403.
24. MDPS. (2020). Qatar Economic Outlook. Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics, August, 1–50. http://www.mdps.gov.qa/en/knowledge/Doc/QEO/Qatar_Economic_Outlook_2016_2018_EN.pdf
25. Mrabet, Z., & Alsamara, M. (2017). Testing the Kuznets Curve hypothesis for Qatar: A comparison between carbon dioxide and ecological footprint. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70(December 2015), 1366–1375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.039
26. Mrabet, Z., AlSamara, M., & Hezam Jarallah, S. (2017). The impact of economic development on environmental degradation in Qatar. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 24(1), 7–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-016-0359-6
27. Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
28. Omri, A. (2013). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth nexus in MENA countries: Evidence from simultaneous equations models. Energy Economics, 40, 657–664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.003
29. Omri, A., Daly, S., Rault, C., & Chaibi, A. (2015). Financial development, environmental quality, trade and economic growth: What causes what in MENA countries. Energy Economics, 48, 242–252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.01.008
30. Ozturk, I. (2010). A literature survey on energy-growth nexus. Energy Policy, 38(1), 340–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.024
31. Ozturk, I., & Al-Mulali, U. (2015). Natural gas consumption and economic growth nexus: Panel data analysis for GCC countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 51, 998–1003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.005
32. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
33. Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
34. Ramsey, J. B. (1969). Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least-Squares Regression Analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 31(2), 350–371.
35. Salahuddin, M., & Gow, J. (2019). Effects of energy consumption and economic growth on environmental quality: evidence from Qatar. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(18), 18124–18142. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05188-w
36. Salahuddin, M., Gow, J., & Ozturk, I. (2015). Is the long-run relationship between economic growth, electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and financial development in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries robust? Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 51, 317–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.06.005
37. The World Bank. (2020a). World Development Indicators. GDP per capita PPP (current international $). [Data]. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true&sort=desc&start=1990&view=chart
38. The World Bank. (2020b). World Development Indicators. [Data]. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
39. Total. (2020). Al-Kharsaah Solar PV IPP Project.
40. WRI. (2021). Historical GHG Emissions: CAIT Data Source. Available Online at: Https://Www.Climatewatchdata.Org.