A NEW BANKRUPTCY FORECAST MODELLING FOR ENERGY COMPANIES

Year 2022, , 35 - 58, 08.10.2022

Gerçek Özparlak

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1100824

Abstract

Due to the Covid-19 epidemic, there was a significant increase in company bankruptcies in 2020. In this period, especially the energy sector has been one area where bankruptcies are the most seen. In this context, this study aims to build a model that can predict financially unsuccessful companies that have declared bankruptcy and successful companies operating in the energy sector in the U.S.A. For the study sample, 30 financial ratios of 23 energy companies that declared bankruptcy in the U.S.A. in 2020 and 30 financial ratios of 23 energy companies that were financially successful in the same peri-od were selected. The multiple discriminant analysis (M.D.A.) was chosen to differentiate between the groups. According to the research results, the accuracy rate of the created function was found to be 87.0%. According to the sensitivity and specificity (R.O.C.) results, testing the process’s performance to differ between unsuccessful and successful companies was found to be strong

Keywords

Financial Failure, Bankruptcies, Financial Failure Prediction Models, Multiple Discriminant Analysis, Energy Sector

ENERJİ FİRMALARI İÇİN İFLAS TAHMİN MODELLEMESİ

Abstract

Covid-19 salgını nedeniyle 2020 yılında şirket iflaslarında büyük artışlar yaşanmıştır. Bu dönemde özellikle enerji sektörü, en çok iflasların görüldüğü alanlardan bir tanesi olmuştur. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmanı amacı, ABD’de de enerji sektöründe faaliyet gösteren finansal açıdan başarısız firmalar (iflasını açıklamış firmalar) ile başarılı firmaları önceden tahmin edebilen bir model oluşturmaktır. Çalışmanın örneklemi için 2020 yılında ABD’de iflasını açıklayan 23 adet enerji şirketi ve aynı dönem-de finansal açıdan başarılı olan 23 adet enerji şirketi seçilmiştir. Gruplar arasındaki ayrımı yapmak için çoklu ayırma analizi metodu yöntem olarak seçilmiştir. Araştırmanın sonuçlarına göre, oluşturulan fonksiyonun başarı oranı %87,0 olarak bulunmuştur. Duyarlılık ve özgüllük testi sonuçlarına göre fonksiyonun başarısız ve başarılı şirketleri tespit etme performansı güçlü olarak bulunmuştur.

Keywords

Finansal Başarısızlık, İflaslar, Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmin Modelleri, Çoklu Ayırma Analizi, Enerji Sektörü

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