DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS

Abstract

The study aims to examine the effects of the industrial production index, consumer price index, consumer confidence index, real effective exchange rate, and loan interest rate variables on the housing price index. Monthly data between 2010:01-2024:05 is used in the study and the NARDL method is used. When the long-term coefficients are examined; it is seen that positive shocks in the industrial production index have a positive effect on the housing price index and negative shocks have a negative effect on the housing price index. It is seen that positive changes in the consumer price index have a positive effect on the housing price index and negative changes have a negative effect. Increases in the consumer confidence index have a positive effect on the housing price index. An increase in the real effective exchange rate causes a decrease in the housing price index in the long term. Finally, both positive and negative changes in housing loan interest rates increase the housing price index.

Keywords

• Housing price determinants
• Nonlinear ARDL
• Housing price

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