LONG-RUN EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH EFFECTS AND FOOD PRICES IN TÜRKİYE

Abstract

This study explores the impact of exchange rate changes on Turkish food prices and their sub-categories using a monthly dataset from 2005:M1 to 2026:M1. Empirical evidence from the Vector Error Correction model indicates that a 1% depreciation of the Turkish Lira translates into a 1.15% increase in general food prices over the long run. Consequently, the estimated pass-through elasticity on food prices exceeds the threshold of “complete pass-through”. This result can be attributed to: i) the price increase stemming from the rise in import prices; ii) the deterioration of inflation expectations and fears of economic agents regarding replacement costs; iii) menu costs; and iv) opportunistic price-setting behaviors. A decomposition into food sub-categories reveals that all food items exhibit a high degree of sensitivity to exchange rates, irrespective of their level of import dependency. We also conducted robustness tests, confirming that our findings remain consistent and show no substantial deviations.

Keywords

• Exchange Rate
• Food Prices
• Pass-through Elasticity

LONG-RUN EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH EFFECTS AND FOOD PRICES IN TÜRKİYE

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2005:M1 ile 2026:M1 dönemini kapsayan aylık veri setini kullanarak, döviz kuru değişimlerinin Türkiye'deki gıda fiyatları ve ilgili alt kategoriler üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. VEC modelinden elde edilen ampirik bulgular, Türk lirasındaki %1'lik bir değer kaybının uzun dönemde genel gıda fiyatlarında %1,15'lik bir artışa yol açtığını göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla, gıda fiyatları üzerindeki tahmini geçişkenlik esnekliği “tam geçişkenlik” eşiğini aşmaktadır. Bu sonuç şu dört temel mekanizmaya atfedilebilir: i) ithalat fiyatlarındaki artıştan kaynaklanan doğrudan fiyat artışları; ii) enflasyon beklentilerinin bozulması ve ekonomik aktörlerin yerine koyma maliyetlerine ilişkin kaygıları; iii) menü maliyetleri ve iv) fırsatçı fiyatlandırma davranışları. Gıda alt kategorilerine yönelik ayrıştırma, ithalat bağımlılık düzeylerinden bağımsız olarak tüm gıda kalemlerinin döviz kurlarına karşı yüksek derecede duyarlılık sergilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca gerçekleştirilen sağlamlık kontrolleri, bulgularımızın tutarlı olduğunu ve önemli bir sapma göstermediğini doğrulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Döviz Kuru
• Gıda Fiyatları
• Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği

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