CAUSAL STRUCTURE OF EXPORT-PRODUCTIVITY NEXUS IN TURKEY

Year 2018, , 194 - 203, 30.09.2018

Muhammed Benli

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.445886

Cited By: 1

Abstract

This
paper examines the causal relationship between real exports and economic growth
in Turkey for the period 2000Q1-2017Q1 by estimating Directed Acyclic Graphs
(DAGs). In doing so, we attempt to shed light on both the direct and indirect
causation between the two with respect to other mediating factors. The
resulting DAG patterns suggest that economic growth follows real exports
expansion in Turkey, while the other variables such as capital formation and
foreign output of other industrialized countries are also significant
determinants of productivity growth in Turkey.

Keywords

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), Causality, TETRAD, Real Exports

TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT-VERİMLİLİK BAĞLANTISININ NEDENSEL YAPISI

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de reel
ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini, 2000:Q1-2017:Q1
dönemi için Yönlendirilmiş Döngüsüz Grafikler (DAGs) metodunu kullanarak
incelemektedir. Böylelikle bahsi geçen değişkenler arasındaki dolaylı ve
dolaysız nedenselliğin, diğer bazı iktisadi faktörlerin de dolaylı ilgisi göz
önünde bulundurularak ortaya çıkarılması amaçlanmıştır. Yönlendirilmiş döngüsüz
grafik şablonları, ekonomik büyümenin reel ihracattaki büyümeyi takip ettiğini;
sermaye teşekkülü ve diğer endüstriyel ülkelerin hasılasının da Türkiye’deki
verimlilik artışının anlamlı/önemli belirleyicileri olduğunu ortaya
koymaktadır. 

Keywords

Yönlendirilmiş Döngüsüz Grafikler, Nedensellik, TETRAD, Reel İhracat

References

• Ahmad, J. and Kwan, A. C. C. (1991) “Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth”, Economic Letters, 37: 243-248.Alici, A. A. and Ucal, M. S. (2003) “Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis”, European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference, Madrid.Awokuse, T. O. (2003) “Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Canada?” Canadian Journal of Economics, 36(1): 126-137.Awokuse, T. O. (2006) “Export-Led Growth and the Japanese Economy: Evidence from VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs”, Applied Economics Letters, 38: 593-602.Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Mohtadi, H. and Shabsign, G. (1991) “Exports, Growth and Causality in LDCs: A Reexamination”, Journal of Development Economics, 36: 405-415.Balassa, B. (1978) ‘‘Export and Economic Growth: Further Evidence’’, Journal of Development Economics, 5: 181 – 189.Balassa, B. (1985) “Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries after the 1973 Oil Shock”, Journal of Development Economics, 4(1): 23-35.Bhagwati, J. (1978) “Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences”, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.Cetintas, H. (2004) “Export and Economic Growth (in Turkish)”, Dokuz Eylul Unv. Isletme Fak. Dergisi, 5(1): 23-34.Chow, P. C. Y. (1987). “Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from the NICs”, Journal of Development Economics, 26(1): 55-63.Cil, Y. N. (2004) “Causality Relationship between Export and Economic Growth in Turkey (in Turkish)”, Sosyal Siyaset Konferanslari Dergisi. 49, 961-972.De Gregorio, J. (1992) “Economic Growth in Latin America”, Journal of Development Economics, 39(1): 59-84.Demiralp, S. and Hoover, K. D. (2003) “Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65: 745-67.Dodaro, S. (1991) “Comparative Advantage, Trade and Growth: Export-led Growth Revisited, World Development, 19: 1153–65.Dodaro, S. (1993) "Export and Growth: A Reconsideration of causality", Journal of Developing Areas, 27(1): 227–244.Edwards, S. (1993) “Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31: 1358-93.Emery, R.F. (1967) “The Relation of Exports and Economic Growth”, Kyklos, 20(2): 470–486Emery, R. F. (1968) “The Relation of Exports and Economic growth: A Reply”, Kyklos, 21(4): 757-60.Esfahani, H. S. (1991) “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-industrialized Countries”, Journal of Development Economics. 35: 93–116.Feder, G. (1983) “On Exports and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 12(2): 59-73.Fosu, A. K. (1990) “Exports and Economic growth: The African Case”, World Development, 18(6): 831-835.Grabowski, R., Sharma, S. C. and Dhakal, D. (1990) “Exports and Japanese Economic Development”, Economics Letters, 32: 127-132.Granger, C. W. J. (1969) "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.Granger, C. (1980) “Testing for Causality: A Personal Viewpoint”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2: 329-352.Halicioglu, F. (2007) “A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA), Paper No. 3565.Haughton, D., Kamis, A. and Scholten, P. (2006) “A Review of Three Directed Acyclic Graphs Software Packages: MIM, Tetrad and WinMine”, The American Statistician, 60(3): 272-286.Heitger, B. (1987) “Imports Protection and Export Performance: Their impact on Economic Growth”, Weltwirtschaffliches Archiv, 123(2), 249-261.Helpman, E. and P. Krugman. (1985) “Market Structure and Foreign Trade”, Cambridge: MIT Press.Hsiao, M. (1987) "Tests of Causality and Exogeneity between Exports and Economic Growth: the Case of Asian NICs," Journal of Economic Development, 12: 143-159.Jin, J. and Yu, E. (1996) "Export-led Growth and the U.S. Economy: Another Look”, Applied Economic Letters, 3: 341-344.Jung, W.S. and Marshall, P. J. (1985) “Exports, Growth and Causality in Developing Countries, Journal of Development Economics, 18: 1-12.Karagoz, M. and Sen A. (2005) “Exports and Economic Growth of Turkey: Cointegration and Error-Correction Analysis” Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4: 1-15Kavoussi, R. M. (1984) “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 14: 241-250.Kohli, I. and Singh, N. (1989) “Exports and Growth: Critical Minimum Effort and Diminishing Returns”, Journal of Development Economics, 30(2): 391-400.Kravis, I. B. (1970) “Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries”, Economic Journal, 80(320): 850-72.Krueger, A. O. (1978) “Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences”, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.Li, Y., Woodard, J. D. and Leatham, D. J. (2013) “Causality among Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Directed Acyclic Graph Approach”, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 45(4): 617–637.Lopez, R. (1991) “How Trade and Macroeconomic Policies Affect Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation in Developing Countries”, Policy Research Working Paper, No. 625, Washington, DC: World Bank.Love, J. (1994) “Engines of Growth: The Exports and Government Sectors, World Economy, 17: 203–218.Lutkepohl, H. (1982) “Non-causality due to Omitted Variables”, Journal of Econometrica, 19: 367–378.Marin, D. (1992) “Is the Export-led rowth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 74: 678-688.Michaely, M. (1977) “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, 4(1): 49-53.Moschos, D. (1989) “Export Expansion, Growth and the Level of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 30(1): 93-102.Otani, I and Villanueva, D. (1990) “Long Term Growth in Developing Countries and Its Determinants: An EmpricaI Analysis”, World Development, 18(6): 769- 783.Paul, S. and Chowdhury, K. (1995) “Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Some Empirical Testing”, Applied Economics Letters, 2: 177–179.Ram, R. (1985) “Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2): 415-25.Ram, R. (1987) “Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36(1): 51-63.Rana, P. B. (1988) “Exports, Policy Changes and Economic Growth in Developing Countries after the 1973 Oil Shock”, Journal of Development Economics, 28(2): 261-64.Richards, D. G. (2001) “Exports as a Determinant of Long-run Growth in Paraguay, 1966-96”, The Journal of Development Studies, 38(1): 28-146.Riezman, R. G. and Whiteman, C. H. (1996) “The Engine of Growth or its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-led Growth, Empirical Economics”, 21(1): 77-110. Saatcioglu, C. and Karaca O. (2004) “Causality Relationship between Export and Growth in Turkey: The Impact of 1980 Transformation”, Yonetim Dergisi, 15(49): 30-40.Severn, A. K. (1968) “Exports and Economic Growth: Comment”,‖Kyklos, 21(3): 546-548.Sheehey, E. J. (1992) Exports and Growth: AdditionaI Evidence", Journal of Development Studies, 28(4): 730-734.Sims, C. A. (1972) “Money, Income and Causality,” American Economic Reviev, 62(4): 540-552.Spirtes, P., Glymour, C. and Scheines, R. (2000) “Causation, Prediction, and Search”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Sung-Shen, N., Biswas, B., and Tribedy, G. (1990) “Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study”, Journal of Economic Development, 9(1): 121–130.Syron, R. F. and Walsh, B. M. (1968) “The Relation of Exports and Economic Growth: A Note”, Kyklos, 21(3): 541-45.Temiz, D. and Gokmen, A. (2010) “Analysis of the Export and Economic growth in Turkey over the period of 1950-2009”, International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 3(5): 123-142.Tyler, W. G. (1981) “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, 9(1): 121-30.Yamada, H. (1998) “A Note on the Causality Between Export and Productivity”, Economics Letters, 61: 111-114.Zhang, J., Bessler, D. and Leatham, D. (2006) “Does Consumer Debt Cause Economic Recession? Evidence Using Directed Acyclic Graphs”, Applied Economics Letters, 13: 401 – 407.