CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCE AND FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS IN TURKEY: WHAT CAUSES WHAT?

Abstract

Turkish economy suffers from chronic current account deficit for many years due to insufficient savings and dependency on import energy and intermediate goods. In order to close the deficit, many developing countries need foreign capital. This is also the case for the Turkish economy. In the pre-financial liberalization period, the direction of causality would be expected from current account balance to foreign capital. After the liberalization, on the other hand, the direction of causality has become an intensively debated issue. This study aims to determine the direction of the causality between current account and financial account using Toda-Yamamoto causality and Hatemi-J asymmetric causality tests. The data cover the period of 2002:01-2017:12. Evidence from the asymmetric causality test shows that the negative shocks of the portfolio investment Granger causes both the negative and the positive shocks of the current account balance in Turkey.

Keywords

• ADF unit roots,Toda-Yamamoto approach,Asymmetric causality,Foreign capital inflows,Financial liberalization

TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ AÇIK VE YABANCI SERMAYE ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisi yetersiz iç tasarruflar ve enerji ve ara malı ithalatına olan bağımlılığı nedeniyle uzun yıllar boyunca kronik cari açık sorunuyla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Çoğu gelişmekte olan ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de cari açığın finansmanı için yabancı sermayeye ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Finansal serbestleşme öncesi dönemde iki değişken arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünün cari dengeden yabancı sermayeye doğru olması beklenebilirdi. Ancak, finansal serbestleşme sonrasında sözü edilen nedenselliğin yönü çokça tartışılan bir konu haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı cari işlemler hesabı ile alt kalemler bazında finans hesabı arasındaki olası nedensellik ilişkisini Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik ve Hatemi-J asimetrik nedensellik testleri ile incelemektir. Bunun için aylık olarak derlenen veri seti Ocak 2002 ile Aralık 2017 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Asimetrik nedensellik testinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre finans hesabı içerisinde yer alan portföy yatırımlarının negatif şokları cari dengenin hem negatif hem de pozitif şoklarının Granger nedeni olmuştur.

Keywords

• ADF birim kök testi,Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı,Asimetrik nedensellik,Yabancı sermaye girişi,Finansal serbestleşme

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