THE RELATIONSHIP OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY EXPORT AND MIDDLE INCOME TRAP: ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

Abstract

In the last 200 years that the world has undergone, technological advances, improvements and important developments in the industry have been an effective factor for sustainable development in the world's richest countries. At this point, there has been an important need to divide the countries of the world into low, medium and high income groups. Due to such a need for a dynamic structure, the United States, which has assumed the economic leadership of the world since 1920, has been a benchmark in determining the income groups of other countries, and this situation has been preferred as a generally accepted approach. Spillover effects of technological progress to local firms are key to improving productivity and generating innovative production. Many countries have escaped middle income trap through high-tech sectors. In this study, we analyzed the Turkish high-technology exports and income per capita data using cointegration approach. The long-run coefficients for the cointegrated system is also tested in this study applying dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS). According to empirical findings, investment and labor are statistically significant whereas the high tech export parameter is statistically insignificant. Therefore, investment and labor force affects GDP per capita positively whereas high technology export effect on GDP per capita is statistically insignificant and negative.

Keywords

• High technology export
• Middle income trap
• Economic growth
• Turkey

References

1. Altun, A. A., and Acaroğlu, H. (2016). “An empirical remark about middle income trap problem for Turkey”. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 4(3).
2. Alçın, S., and Billur, G. (2015). “Orta gelir tuzağı: Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme.” Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Dergisi 33 (1):27-45.
3. Angelini, E. et al. (2018). “The “Donald” and the market: Is there a cointegration?.” Research in International Business and Finance (45): 30-37.
4. Balli, E., Manga, M. and Güreşçi, G. (2019). “Orta Gelir Tuzaği: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz.” Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. (59): 48-60.
5. Bozkurt, E. et al. (2014). “Orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye örneği.” Maliye Dergisi. (167): 22-39.
6. Ener, M., and Karanfil, M. (2015). “Türkiye ekonomisinde tasarruf açığının orta gelir tuzağı üzerine etkisi.” Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 10(2): 31-46.
7. Felipe, J., Arnelyn A., and Utsav K. (2012). “Tracking the middle-income trap: What is it, who is in it, and why?.” Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper (715).
8. Gürsel, S., and Soybilgen, B. (2013). “Türkiye Orta Gelir Tuzağının Eşiğinde.” BETAM Araştırma Notu 13 (154).

9. Karanfil, M. (2016). “Ar-Ge Harcamalarinin Orta Gelir Tuzağı Üzerine Etkisi: Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye İçin Panel Veri Analizi.” Journal of Life Economics 3(4): 219-234.
10. Kirchgässner, G., Wolters, J., Hassler, U. (2012). “Introduction to modern time series analysis.” Springer Science & Business Media. Berlin, Heidelberg.
11. Koçak, E., and Bulut, Ü. (2014). “Orta gelir tuzağı: teorik çerçeve, ampirik yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama.” Maliye Dergisi (167): 1-21.
12. Moriyama, K. (2008). “Investigating inflation dynamics in Sudan.” International Monetary Fund 8. Working paper. (189).
13. Ohno, K. (2009). “Avoiding the middle-income trap: renovating industrial policy formulation in Vietnam.” ASEAN Economic Bulletin 26(1): 25-43.
14. Şahin, İ., Başer, K. and Karanfil, M. (2015). “Orta Gelir Tuzağı Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma: Türkiye Örneği (1980-2013).” Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business/Alanya Isletme Fakültesi Dergisi 7(2).
15. Tasar, I., Gültekin, E. and Acci, Y. (2016). “Is Turkey in a middle income trap.” Journal of Applied Research in Finance and Economics 1(1): 36-41.
16. Ünlü, F. and Yıldız, R. (2018). “Orta Gelir Tuzağinin Belirlenmesi: Ekonometrik Analiz.” Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi 14(1): 1-20.
17. Yeldan, E. et al. (2012). “Orta gelir tuzağından çıkış: Hangi Türkiye.” Türkonfed Raporu.