CAUSAL STRUCTURE OF EXPORT-PRODUCTIVITY NEXUS IN TURKEY

Year 2018, Volume: 16 Issue: 1, 194 - 203, 30.09.2018

Muhammed Benli

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.445886

Cited By: 1

Abstract

This
paper examines the causal relationship between real exports and economic growth
in Turkey for the period 2000Q1-2017Q1 by estimating Directed Acyclic Graphs
(DAGs). In doing so, we attempt to shed light on both the direct and indirect
causation between the two with respect to other mediating factors. The
resulting DAG patterns suggest that economic growth follows real exports
expansion in Turkey, while the other variables such as capital formation and
foreign output of other industrialized countries are also significant
determinants of productivity growth in Turkey.

Keywords

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), Causality, TETRAD, Real Exports

TÜRKİYE’DE İHRACAT-VERİMLİLİK BAĞLANTISININ NEDENSEL YAPISI

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de reel
ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini, 2000:Q1-2017:Q1
dönemi için Yönlendirilmiş Döngüsüz Grafikler (DAGs) metodunu kullanarak
incelemektedir. Böylelikle bahsi geçen değişkenler arasındaki dolaylı ve
dolaysız nedenselliğin, diğer bazı iktisadi faktörlerin de dolaylı ilgisi göz
önünde bulundurularak ortaya çıkarılması amaçlanmıştır. Yönlendirilmiş döngüsüz
grafik şablonları, ekonomik büyümenin reel ihracattaki büyümeyi takip ettiğini;
sermaye teşekkülü ve diğer endüstriyel ülkelerin hasılasının da Türkiye’deki
verimlilik artışının anlamlı/önemli belirleyicileri olduğunu ortaya
koymaktadır. 

Keywords

Yönlendirilmiş Döngüsüz Grafikler, Nedensellik, TETRAD, Reel İhracat

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