EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND GROWTH: A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR SELECTED EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES

Year 2018, Volume: 16 Issue: 3, 24 - 36, 30.09.2018

Ali Altıner , Kezban Ayran Cihan , Eda Bozkurt

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.449317

Cited By: 1

Abstract

In the present study,
the relationship between economic growth and export diversification was
examined for 10 emerging market economies. For this purpose, the panel data
analysis was performed by using the data of period between 1968 and 2014. Within
the scope of this analysis, the cross-sectional dependence test and the panel
bootstrap causality test developed by Konya (2006) were implemented. According
to the results of empirical analyses, it was determined that there was a
unidirectional causality relationship from economic growth to export
diversification only in Indonesia. Moreover, it was also
found that there was a unidirectional causality relationship from export
diversification to economic growth in Argentina, Columbia, India, Malaysia, and
Turkey. However, no causality relationship was found for other countries. These
results reveal the importance of adopting the policies improving the product diversification by
promoting the manufacturers in emerging market economies. 

Keywords

Emerging Market Economies, Export Diversification, Growth

İHRACAT ÇEŞİTLENDİRMESİ VE BÜYÜME: SEÇİLMİŞ YÜKSELEN PİYASA EKONOMİLERİ İÇİN PANEL BOOSTRAP NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, seçilmiş 10 yükselen piyasa ekonomisi için ihracat çeşitlendirmesi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla 1968-2014 dönemi verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz kapsamında, yatay kesit bağımlılığı testi ve Konya (2006) tarafından geliştirilen panel bootstrap nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonuçlarına göre, sadece Endonezya’da ekonomik büyümeden ihracat çeşitliliğine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca Arjantin, Kolombiya, Hindistan, Malezya ve Türkiye’de ihracat çeşitliliğinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu bulgusuna da ulaşılmıştır. Ancak diğer ülkelerde herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılamamıştır. Bu sonuçlar, yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde üreticilerin teşvik edilerek ürün çeşitliliğini artırıcı politikalarının benimsenmesinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır

Keywords

Yükselen Pyasa Ekonomileri, İhracat Çeşitliliği, Büyüme, Panel Boostrap Nedensellik

References

• Acaravcı, A. and Kargı, G. (2015) “Türkiye’de İhracatın Çeşitlendirmesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme”. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 1(1):1-16.
• Acemoğlu D. and Zilibotti, F. (1997) “Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk Diversification and Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 105(4):709–751.
• Aditya, A. and Roy, S. S. (2009) “Export Diversification And Economic Growth Evidence From Cross Country Analysis”, [Online] Available: http://www.isid.ac.in/~pu/ conference/dec_10_conf/Papers/AnweshaAditya.pdf
• Agosin, M. (2007) “Export Diversification and Growth in Emerging Economies”, Workingpaper No 233, Departmento de Economia, Universidad de Chile
• Alexander, C. and Warwick, K. (2007) “Governments, Exports and Growth: Responding to the Challenges and Opportunities of Globalisation”, The World Economy, 30(1):177–194
• Ali, R. Alwang, J. and Siegel, P. B. (1991)“Is Export Diversification the Best Way to Achieve Export Growth and Stability? A Look at Three African Countries”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series: 729
• Bacchetta, M. Jansen, M., Piermantini, R. and Amurgo-Pacheco, A. (2007) “Export Diversification As An Absorber Of External Shocks”, ETSG 2007 Athens, Ninth Annual Conference, 13-15 September 2007 Athens
• Cadot, O., Celine, C. and Strauss–Kahn, V. (2011) “Export Diversification: What’s behind the Hump?”, Review of Economic and Statistics, 93(2):590–605.
• Can, M. and Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2016) “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların İhracat Ürün Çeşitliliğine Etkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, (33)2016:122-152.Chang, K. (1991) Export Diversification And International Debt Under Terms-Of-Trade Uncertainty: An Intertemporal Approach, Journal of Development Economics 36(2):259–279
• Çeviker, A. and Taş, İ. (2011) “Türkiye’de İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 3(2):1-10
• Çınar, G. and Yetkin, T. (2010) “İhracatta Bölgesel Çeşitlendirme ve İstikrar”, Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 65(2):30-58.
• Değer, M. K. (2010) “İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Deneyimi (1980-2006).”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2):259-287
• Fotros, M. H., Nemati, M. and Darabi, H. (2013) “Relationship between Export Diversification and Economic Growth”, International Journal of Basic Sciences & Applied Research, 2(12):991-999.
• Hamed, K. Hadi, D. and Hossein, K. (2014) “Export Diversification And Economic Growth in Some Selected Developing Countries”, African Journal Of Business Management, 8(17):700-714.Hesse, H. (2008) “Export Diversification and Economic Growth”, The World Bank Commission on Growth and Development, Working Paper, Paper No. 21.
• Imbs, J. and Wacziarg, R. (2003) “Stages of Diversification”, American Economic Review, 93(1):63–86.
• Kaplan, H. and Tur, F. (2017) “Türkiye’de İhracatın Sektör ve Pazar ÇeşitliliğiÇerçevesinde Yaşadığı Yapısal Dönüşüm”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 17(1):59-74
• Klinger, B. and Ledeerman, D. (2006) “Diversification, Innovation, and Imitation Inside the Global Technology Frontier”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 3872, Washington, D.C.: World Bank Avaliable: https://openknowledge.Worldbank.org /handle/10986/8735 )
• Lotfi, B. and Karim, M. (2017) “Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Morocco: An Econometric Analysis”, Applied Economics and Finance, 4(6):27-35.
• Lugeiyamu, E. J. (2016) “Is Export Diversification a Key Force toAfrica’s Economic Growth?”, Master Thesis, Jönköping University, International Business School.
• Matadeen, S. (2011) “Export Dıversıfıcatıon And Economıc Growth Case Study Of A Developing Country: Mauritius”, International Conference on International Trade and Investment (ICITI) Avaliable:http://sites.uom.ac.mu/wtochair/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=70&Itemid=69.
• McIntyre, A., Li, M. X., Wang, K. and Yun, H. (2018) “Economic Benefits of Export Diversification in Small States”, IMF Working Papers (WP/18/86), April 2018
• Misztal, P. (2011) “Export Diversification and Economic Growth in European Union Member States”, Oeconomia, 10(2):55-64.
• Mudenda, C. Choga, I. and Chigamba, C. (2014) “The Role of Export Diversification on Economic Growth in South Africa”, Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(9), 705-712.
• Parteka, A. and Tamberi, M. (2008) “Determinants of Export Diversification an Emprical Invastigation”, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Quaderni di Ricerca, No.327.
• Parteka, A. and Tamberi, Massimo (2013) “What Determines Export Diversification in the Development Process? Empirical Assessment”, The World Economy, 36 (6):807–826.
• Pifieres, S. A. G. De and Ferrantino, M. (1997) “Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process The case of Chile”, Journal of Development Economics, 52(2)::375-391.
• Samen, S. (2010) A Primer on Export Diversification: Key Concepts, Theoretical Underpinnigs and Empirical Evidence, Growth and Crisis Unit World Bank Institute, Avaiable: http://blogs.worldbank.org/growth/files/growth/EXPORT_DIVERSIFICATION_A_PRIMER_May2010%281%29.pdf.
• Singer, H. W. (1950) “The Distributions of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries”, The American Econonomic Review, 40(2): 473–485
• Syrquin, M. (1989) Patterns of structural change, in Handbook of Economic Development (eds.) H. Chenery and T. N. Srinavasan, Elsevier Science Publishers, 1(1):203-273.