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THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY

Year 2020, Volume: 18 Issue: 1, 76 - 90, 01.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.607439

Abstract

Turkey implemented programme based on import substitution in the 1960s and turned to domestic production and consumption by restrictions on bringing in foreign trade. Following the stagflationary process in the 1970s, Turkey aimed to follow the export-led growth model of the developing countries in the 1980s to reach the developed countries. In this context, the government shifted into export promotion strategy following the progressed made by newly industrialized countries. Accordingly, import restrictions were removed and exports were aimed at increasing. From the 1990s onwards, foreign trade has increased enormously. This increase has continued in the 2000s but imports have permanently increased more than exports. Turkey's import dependence has risen significantly reflecting the openness of the domestic markets. Importation of capital and intermediate goods has been the critical factor for Turkey's economic development.The main aim of this study is to examine the causal relationship between export and import.

The dependency of import to the export in Turkey tested with a Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method by using monthly data 1992-2019 periods. Following empirical findings were reached in the study investigating: There are causality both from export to import and import to export. According to Engle-Granger (1987) test, cointegration has been detected between export and import. As a result of DOLS and FMOLS method made long term analysis, export is highly dependent on import.

References

  • Alam, M.I. (2003) “Manufactured Exports, Capital Good Imports, and Economic Growth: Experience of Mexico and Brazil”, International Economic Journal, 17(4): 85-105.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W.A. (1979) “Distribution of The Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431.
  • Engle, R. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987) “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Represention, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2): 251-276.
  • Esfahani, H.S. (1991) “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialized Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 35(1): 93-116.
  • Esteve, V. and Requena, F. (2006) “A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change” International Journal of the Economics of Business, 13(1): 111-128.
  • Feder, G. (1982) "On Exports and Economic Growth," Journal of Development Economics , 12: 59-73.
  • Gerni, C., Emsen Ö.S. and Değer, M.K. (2008) “İthalata Dayalı İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: 1980-2006 Türkiye Deneyimi”, 2. Ulusal İktisat Kongresi, 2: 1-21.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric And Cross-Sectional Method”, Econometrica, 37(3): 424–438.
  • Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974) “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2): 111-120.
  • Gregory, A.W. and B. Hansen, E. (1996) “Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1): 99-126.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (2000) “Basic Econometrics”, New York: McGrawHill.
  • İnançlı, S. and Konak, A. (2011) “Türkiye’de İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı: Otomotiv Sektörü”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2): 343-362.
  • Katos, A., Lawler, K. and Seddighi. H. (2000). “Econometrics: A Practical Approach”, London: Taylor and Francis Group.
  • Li, X., Greenaway D. and Hine R.C. (2003) “Imports of Services and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Approach”, SETI Working Paper, Sustainable Growth, Employment Creation and Technological Integration in The European Knowledge-Based Economy, 824: 7-23.
  • Mackinnon, J.G. (1996) “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11: 601-618.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.
  • Phillips, P.C. and Hansen, B.E. (1990) “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes”, The Review of Economic Studies, 57: 99-125.
  • Phillips, P.C. and Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Stock, J. and Watson, M.W. (1993) “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61(4): 783-820.
  • Tuncer, İ. (2002) “Türkiye'de İhracat, İthalat ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980-2000)”, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(9): 90-106.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D.W.K. (1992) “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3): 251-270.

TÜRKİYE’DE İTHALATIN İHRACATA ETKİSİ

Year 2020, Volume: 18 Issue: 1, 76 - 90, 01.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.607439

Abstract

Türkiye, 1960'lı yıllarda ithal ikamesine dayalı bir program izlemiş ve dış ticarette getirilen kısıtlamalar ile yerli üretim ve tüketime yönelmiştir. 1970'lerde yaşanan stagflasyonist sürecin ardından Türkiye, 1980'li yıllardagelişmiş ülkelerin seviyesine ulaşabilme hedefiyle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ihracata dayalı ekonomik modelini uygulamaya başlamıştır. Bu bağlamda, yeni sanayileşmiş ülkelerin kaydettiği ilerlemenin ardından devlet ihracatı geliştirme stratejisini benimsemiştir. Buna göre ithalat kısıtlamaları kaldırılmış ve ihracatın artırılması hedeflenmiştir. 1990'lıyıllardan itibaren dış ticarette önemli artışlar yaşanmıştır. Bu artış 2000'li yıllarda da devam etmiş, ancak ithalat artışı sürekli olarak ihracattan daha fazla gerçekleşmiştir. Türkiye'de iç piyasanın ithalat bağımlılığının da önemli ölçüde artması söz konusu olmuşturSonuçta sermaye ve ara malların ithalatı, Türkiye'nin ekonomik gelişimi için kritik bir faktör olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, ihracat ve ithalatarasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi incelemektir.

Türkiye’de ihracatın ithalata bağımlılığı, 1992-2019 dönemleri aylık verilerini kullanarak Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) ve Tamamen Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler (FMOLS) yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Araştırmada şu ampirik bulgulara ulaşılmıştır: Hem ihracattan ithalata, hem de ithalattan ihracata nedensellik vardır. Engle-Granger (1987)eştümleşme testine göre, ihracat ve ithalat arasında eştümleşme tespit edilmiştir. DOLS ve FMOLS yöntemleri kullanılarak yapılan uzun dönem analizleri sonucuna göreihracat büyük oranda ithalata bağımlıdır.


References

  • Alam, M.I. (2003) “Manufactured Exports, Capital Good Imports, and Economic Growth: Experience of Mexico and Brazil”, International Economic Journal, 17(4): 85-105.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W.A. (1979) “Distribution of The Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431.
  • Engle, R. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987) “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Represention, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2): 251-276.
  • Esfahani, H.S. (1991) “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialized Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 35(1): 93-116.
  • Esteve, V. and Requena, F. (2006) “A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change” International Journal of the Economics of Business, 13(1): 111-128.
  • Feder, G. (1982) "On Exports and Economic Growth," Journal of Development Economics , 12: 59-73.
  • Gerni, C., Emsen Ö.S. and Değer, M.K. (2008) “İthalata Dayalı İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: 1980-2006 Türkiye Deneyimi”, 2. Ulusal İktisat Kongresi, 2: 1-21.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric And Cross-Sectional Method”, Econometrica, 37(3): 424–438.
  • Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974) “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2): 111-120.
  • Gregory, A.W. and B. Hansen, E. (1996) “Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1): 99-126.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (2000) “Basic Econometrics”, New York: McGrawHill.
  • İnançlı, S. and Konak, A. (2011) “Türkiye’de İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı: Otomotiv Sektörü”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2): 343-362.
  • Katos, A., Lawler, K. and Seddighi. H. (2000). “Econometrics: A Practical Approach”, London: Taylor and Francis Group.
  • Li, X., Greenaway D. and Hine R.C. (2003) “Imports of Services and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Approach”, SETI Working Paper, Sustainable Growth, Employment Creation and Technological Integration in The European Knowledge-Based Economy, 824: 7-23.
  • Mackinnon, J.G. (1996) “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11: 601-618.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.
  • Phillips, P.C. and Hansen, B.E. (1990) “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes”, The Review of Economic Studies, 57: 99-125.
  • Phillips, P.C. and Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Stock, J. and Watson, M.W. (1993) “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61(4): 783-820.
  • Tuncer, İ. (2002) “Türkiye'de İhracat, İthalat ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980-2000)”, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(9): 90-106.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D.W.K. (1992) “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3): 251-270.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Şahin Karabulut 0000-0001-7955-6404

Publication Date March 1, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 18 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Karabulut, Ş. (2020). THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 18(1), 76-90. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.607439
AMA Karabulut Ş. THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY. Journal of Management and Economics Research. March 2020;18(1):76-90. doi:10.11611/yead.607439
Chicago Karabulut, Şahin. “THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 18, no. 1 (March 2020): 76-90. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.607439.
EndNote Karabulut Ş (March 1, 2020) THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY. Journal of Management and Economics Research 18 1 76–90.
IEEE Ş. Karabulut, “THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY”, Journal of Management and Economics Research, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 76–90, 2020, doi: 10.11611/yead.607439.
ISNAD Karabulut, Şahin. “THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 18/1 (March 2020), 76-90. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.607439.
JAMA Karabulut Ş. THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2020;18:76–90.
MLA Karabulut, Şahin. “THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY”. Journal of Management and Economics Research, vol. 18, no. 1, 2020, pp. 76-90, doi:10.11611/yead.607439.
Vancouver Karabulut Ş. THE IMPACT OF IMPORTS ON EXPORTS OF TURKEY. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2020;18(1):76-90.