AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN HOUSING PRICES, GROWTH AND MACROECONOMIC VARIBLES IN TURKEY

Year 2020, Volume: 18 Issue: 1, 176 - 200, 01.03.2020

Şerif Canbay , Derya Mercan

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.674472

Cited By: 10

Abstract

This study provides implications for policy makers to formulate measures to transfer monetary policy changes to the economy through the housing prices channel in order to develop a stability more stable housing market and support economic development. For this purpose Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VECM) is applied to test the process of housing prices channel for Turkey in the 2010Q1-2019Q2 period. The findings of Granger causality analysis imply that there are causality relationships in the short and long term from interest rates to credit volume and from credit volume to housing prices and consumer price index. There is also a causal relationship in the short and long term from growth to housing prices. However, a causality relationship has been determined in the short run from interest rates to growth. According to the results of the impulse-response analysis of the study, while a positive shock in interest rates and growth decreases housing prices, a positive shock in credit volume increases housing prices. On the other hand, house prices shocks increase growth and credit volume, and have a decreasing effect on interest rates and consumer price index.

Keywords

Housing Prices Channel, Monetary Policy, Maki Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VECM), Granger Causality Test

TÜRKİYE’DE KONUT FİYATLARI, BÜYÜME VE MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ

Abstract

This study provides implications for policy makers to formulate measures to transfer monetary policy changes to the economy through the housing prices channel in order to develop a healthier and more stable housing market and support economic development. For this purpose Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VECM) is applied to test the process of housing prices channel for Turkey in the 2010Q1-2019Q2 period. The findings of Granger causality analysis imply that there are causality relationships in the short and long term from interest rates to credit volume and from credit volume to housing prices and consumer price index. There is also a causal relationship in the short and long term from growth to housing prices. However, a causality relationship has been determined in the short run from interest rates to growth. According to the results of the impulse-response analysis of the study, while a positive shock in interest rates and growth decreases housing prices, a positive shock in credit volume increases housing prices. On the other hand, house prices shocks increase growth and credit volume, and have a decreasing effect on interest rates and consumer price index.

Keywords

Konut Fiyatları Kanalı, Para Poitikası, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VAR/VECM), Granger Nedensellik Testi

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