THE IMPACTS OF CORRUPTION ON BUDGET BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Year 2020, Volume: 18 Issue: 3, 46 - 60, 30.09.2020

Seda Sonmez Ozekicioglu , Sevinç Yaraşır Tülümce

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.775529

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Today, maintaining stability, transparency and budget balance are main indicators for developed and emerging countries. Corruption, causing deviation from these indicators and its results are important issues that should be researched. Because, corruption changes the composition of public expenditures leading to inefficient expenditures, as well as dissolving public revenues and affecting budget balance negatively. Increase in budget deficit causes an increase in public debt stock. In this study, the effect of corruption in Turkey on budget balance and public debt is analyzed by using Johansen cointegration, VAR (Vector Autoregressive Model) and Granger Causality methods for 1995-2019 years. Empirical findings state that there is not cointegration relationship among variables and there are causalities from budget deficits and public debt burden to corruption and from budget deficit to public debt. VAR method provides evidence that budget deficit and corruption affect each other.

Keywords

corruption, budget balance, Public Debt Stock

TÜRKİYE’DE YOLSUZLUĞUN BÜTÇE DENGESİ VE KAMU BORÇLANMASI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: BİR AMPİRİK ANALİZ

Abstract

Günümüzde gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için istikrar, şeffaflık ve bütçe dengesinin sağlanması önemli göstergeler arasında yer almaktadır. Bu göstergelerden sapmalara neden olan yolsuzluk olgusu ve sonuçları ise araştırılması gereken önemli bir sorunsal olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Çünkü yolsuzluk kamu gelirlerini eritmenin yanında kamu harcamalarının kompozisyonunu değiştirerek verimsiz harcamalara yol açmakta ve bütçe dengesini olumsuz etkilemektedir. Artan bütçe açıkları ise kamu borç stokunun artışını beraberinde getirmektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1995-2019 zaman aralığı için yolsuzluğun bütçe dengesi ve borçlanma üzerindeki etkisini Johansen Eşbütünleşme, VAR (Vector Otoregresif Model) ve Granger Nedensellik yöntemleri ile analiz etmektedir. Ampirik bulgular değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığını, bütçe açıklarından ve borç yükünden yolsuzluğa ve bütçe açıklarından borçlanmaya doğru nedenselliklerin var olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. VAR yöntemi ise bütçe açıklarının ve yolsuzluğun birbirlerinden etkilendiklerine dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Yolsuzluk, Bütçe Dengesi, Kamu Borç Stoku

References

• Aidt, T. S. (2003) “Economic Analysis of Corruption: A Survey”, The Economic Journal, 113(491): 632-652.
• Akerlof, G.A. (1970) “The Market for Lemons: Quality under Uncertainty and The Market Mechanism”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84 (3): 488–500.
• Asteriou, D. and Hall, S. (2007) “Applied Econometrics a Modern Approach”, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
• Bayley, D.H. (1966) “The Effects of Corruption in a Developing Nation”, The Western Political Quarterly, 19(4): 719-732.
• Benfratello, L., Monte A. D. and Pennacchio, L. (2015) “Corruption and Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis”, University of Naples “Federico II” and CSEF, WP.
• Chander, P. and Wilde, L. (1992) “Corruption in Tax Administration”, Journal of Public Economics, 49: 333-349. Chu, C. Y. C. (1990) “A Model of Income Tax Evasion with Venal Tax Officials: The Case of Taiwan,”, Public Finance, 45(3): 392-408. Cooray, A., Dzhumashev, R. and Schneider, F. (2017) “How Does Corruption Affect Public Debt? An Empirical Analysis”, World Development, 90: 115-127.
• D’Agostino, G., Dunne, P.J. and Pieroni, L. (2016) “Government Spending, Corruption and Economic Growth”, World Development, 84: 190-205.
• Delavallade, C. (2006) “Corruption and Distribution of Public Spending in Developing Countries, Journal of Economics and Finance, 30(2): 222-239.
• Dimakou, O. (2015) “Bureaucratic Corruption and the Dynamic Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policy”, European Journal of Political Economy, 40: 57-78.
• Everhart, S.S., Martinez- Vazquez, J. and M. McNab, R.M. (2009) “Corruption, Governance, Investment and Growth in Emerging Markets”, Applied Economics, 41(13): 1579-1594.
• Flatters, F. and Macleod, W.B. (1995) “Administrative Corruption and Taxation”, International Tax and Public Finance, 2: 397–417.
• Ghura, D. (2002) “Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Effects of Economic Policies and Corruption”, Gupta, M. S., & Abed, M. G. T. (eds.) Governance, Corruption, and Economic Performance, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., USA, 386-395.
• Granger, C.W. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Crossspectral Methods”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
• Grechyna, D. (2012) “Public Corruption and Public Debt: Some Empirical Evidence”, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2052974, (10.04.2020).
• Gupta, S., Mello L.D. and Sharan, R. (2001) “Corruption and Military Spending”, European Journal of Political Economy, 17(4): 749-777.
• Hessami, Z. (2014) “Political Corruption, Public Procurement, and Budget Composition: Theory and Evidence from OECD Countries”, European Journal of Political Economy, 34: 372-389.
• Hillman, A.L. (2004) “Corruption and Public Finance: An IMF Perspective”, European Journal of Political Economy, 20(4): 1067-1077.
• Hwang, J. (2002) “A Note on the Relationship between Corruption and Government Revenue”, Journal of Economic Development, 27(2): 161-178.
• Jajkowicz, O. and Drobiszová, A. (2015) “The Effect of Corruption on Government Expenditure Allocation in OECD Countries”, Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 63(4): 1251-1259.
• Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231-254.
• Knight, M., Loayza, N. and Villanueva, D. (1996) “The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth”, Policy Research Working Paper Series, No.1577, The World Bank.
• Leiken, R.S. (1997) “Controlling the Global Corruption Epidemic”, Foreign Policy, 105: 55-73.
• Liu, Y. and Feng, H. (2011), “Corruption, Public Expenditure Efficiency and Economic Growth”, Economic Research Journal, 46: 17-28.
• Martinez-Vazquez, J., Arze, F.J. and Boex, J. (2004) “Corruption, Fiscal Policy, and Fiscal Management”, USAID, USA.
• Mauro, P. (1996) “The Effects of Corruption on Growth, Investment, and Government Expenditure”, IMF Working Paper No: 96-98, Policy Development and Review Department.
• Mauro, P. (1997) “Why Worry about Corruption?”, Economic Issues, 6, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C, USA, ISBN 1-55775-635-x.
• Mauro, P. (1998) “Corruption and the Composition of Government Expenditure”, Journal of Public Economics, 69: 263–279.
• Myint, U. (2000) “Corruption: Causes, Consequences and Cures”, Asia Pacific Development Journal, 7(2): 33-58.
• Rose-Ackerman, S. (1978) “Corruption A Study in Political Economy”, Academic Press, New York, USA.
• Sah, R., Kumar and Stiglitz, J. (1987) “The Taxation and Pricing of Agricultural and Industrial Goods in Developing Economies”, David M. G. Newbery and Nicholas H. Stern (eds.) The Theory of Taxation for Developing Countries, Chapter 16, 426-461. Oxford University Press, New York, USA.
• Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R.W. (1993) “Corruption”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3): 599-617.
• Tanzi, V. and Shome, P. (1993) “A Primer on Tax Evasion”, Staff Papers- International Monetary Fund, 40(4): 807-828.
• Tanzi, V. (1994) “Corruption, Governmental Activities, and Markets”, IMF Working Paper No: 94/99, 1-23.
• Tanzi, V. (1998) “Corruption and the Budget: Problems and Solutions”, Jain A.K. (ed.) Economics of Corruption, Recent Economic Thought Series, Vol 65, Springer, Boston, MA, ISBN: 978-1-4613-7239-4.
• Tanzi, V. and Davoodi, H.R. (1998) “Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth”, Hirofumi Shibata and Toshihiro Ihori (eds.) The Welfare State, Public Investment, and Growth, Springer, Tokyo, 41-60.
• Tanzi, V. and Davoodi, H.R. (2000) “Corruption, Growth, and Public Finances”, IMF Working Paper No. 00/182, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
• Tarı, R. and Bozkurt, H. (2006) “Türkiye’de İstikrarsız Büyümenin Var Modelleri ile Analizi (1991.1-2004.3)”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 4: 12-28.
• Usher, D. (1989) “The Hidden Cost of Public Expenditure”, Paper prepared for the Sequoia Institute Seminar, More Taxing than Taxes?, Washington, D.C. USA, 1-56.
• Virmani, A., (1987) “Tax Evasion, Corruption and Administration: Monitoring The People’s Agents under Symmetric Dishonesty”, Mimeo, Development Research Department, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA.
• Wu, S., Li, B., Nie, Q. and Chen, C. (2017) “Government Expenditure, Corruption and Total Factor Productivity”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 168: 279-289.