COVID-19 PANDEMİ SÜRECİNDE TWİTTER YORUMLARI İLE ALTCOIN KRİPTO PARA PİYASASI ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİĞİN DUYGU ANALİZİ İLE İNCELENMESİ: RİPPLE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2021, Volume: 19 Issue: 4, 362 - 381, 31.12.2021

Utku Erdinç Nurbanu Bursa

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.991718

Cited By: 3

Abstract

Covid-19 pandemisinin dünya genelinde sağlık, eğitim gibi alanlarda olduğu gibi ekonomi alanındaki etkisi de oldukça büyüktür. Salgınla mücadele kapsamında uygulanan kapanma süreçleri ve çalışma saatlerindeki değişiklikler, bireylerin ekonomik durumlarında bozulmalara yol açmış ve bunun bir sonucu olarak, sosyal medyanın da etkisiyle çeşitli yatırım araçlarına gösterilen ilgi artmıştır. Bu yatırım araçlarından birisi de, kripto paralar olmuştur. Çalışmada, Twitter kullanıcılarının Ripple hakkında paylaştıkları Türkçe tweetler ile Ripple’ın gün sonu fiyatı arasındaki nedensellik, Covid-19 pandemi sürecinde duygu analizi ve nedensellik testiyle incelenmiştir. Duygu analizi sonucunda elde edilen duygu skorları ile aynı tarihlerdeki Ripple’a ait gün sonu kapanış fiyatları arasında pozitif yönlü %21’lik bir korelasyon elde edilmiştir. Sonrasında, ilgilenilen değişkenlerin aynı düzeylerde durağan olmamalarından dolayı Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmuştur. Analizler sonucunda #xrp etiketi ile paylaşılan Türkçe tweetlerin, Ripple’ın fiyatları üzerinde etkisi olduğu istatistiksel olarak ortaya konmuş; ancak fiyatların Türkçe Twitter yorumlarını etkilediğine dair yeterince bir kanıt bulunamamıştır.

Keywords

Duygu Analizi, Kripto Para, Nedensellik, Twitter, Toda-Yamamoto Testi

INVESTIGATION OF THE CAUSALITY BETWEEN TWITTER COMMENTS AND ALTCOIN CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET BY SENTIMENT ANALYSIS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: RIPPLE EXAMPLE

Abstract

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy, like health and education, is also quite large worldwide. The quarantines and changes in working hours implemented within the scope of the fight against the pandemic led to deterioration in the economic situation of individuals. Along with these deteriorations, the interest in various investment instruments has increased with the effect of social media. One of these investment tools is cryptocurrencies. In this context, the causality between Twitter users' Turkish tweets about Ripple and Ripple's end-of-day closing price was examined by sentiment analysis and causality test during the Covid-19 pandemic era. A positive 21% correlation was obtained between the sentiment scores obtained as a result of sentiment analysis and the end-of-day closing price of Ripple on the same dates. Afterward, because the variables were not stationary at the same levels, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was applied and a one-way causality was found. As a result of the analysis, it was statistically revealed that Turkish tweets shared with the #xrp hashtag had an effect on Ripple's prices, however, there was not enough evidence that prices affect Turkish Twitter comments.

Keywords

Sentiment Analysis, Cryptocurrency, Causality, Twitter, Toda-Yamamoto Test

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