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MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?

Year 2022, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 76 - 97, 30.06.2022

Tunahan Hacıimamoğlu

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1000464

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1987-2020 döneminde yıllık ihracat ve ithalat verileri kullanılarak MINT ülkeleri için cari açığın sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını Husted (1992) ve Quintos (1995) modelleri bağlamında analiz etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışmada eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin tahmini için Durbin-Hausman testi, katsayı tahmini için ortak ilişkili etkiler ortalama grup tahmincisi (CCE-MG), nedensellik ilişkisinin tahmini için ise Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) bootstrap panel nedensellik yaklaşımları kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonuçları ihracat ve ithalat değişkenlerinin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiklerini, diğer bir ifade ile eşbütünleşik olduklarını ortaya koymuştur. Dolayısı ile MINT ülkeleri için cari açığın sürdürülebilir olduğu ifade edilebilir. Öte yandan uzun dönem katsayı tahmincisi sonuçlarına göre MINT ülkeleri için ithalat değişkeninin katsayı değeri 0.31 olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuç Husted (1992) ve Quintos (1995) modelleri bağlamında bu ülkeler için cari açığın zayıf düzeyde sürdürülebilir olduğu anlamına gelmektedir.

Keywords

Cari Açık Sürdürülebilirlik Panel Veri Analizi MINT Ülkeleri.

Supporting Institution

Çalışma herhangi bir kurum tarafından desteklenmemektedir.

References

  • Acemoğlu, D., Laibson, D., List, J. A., & Şener, S. (2016) “Makroekonomi”, İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım.
  • Açikgöz, S., & Akçaglayan, A. (2014) “Türkiye'de Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği”, Ege Akademik Bakis, 14(1): 83-97.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., & Fountas, S. (2003) “On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Four ASEAN Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 14(3): 465-487.
  • Bajo-Rubio, O., Díaz-Roldán, C., & Esteve, V. (2014) “Sustainability of External Imbalances in the OECD Countries”, Applied Economics, 46(4): 441-449. Baltagi, B. H. (2008) “Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (Vol. 4)”, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Behera, H. K., & Yadav, I. S. (2019) “Explaining India’s Current Account Deficit: a Time Series Perspective”, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 26(1): 117-138.
  • Bordo, M., Eichengreen, B., Klingebiel, D., & Martinez-Peria, M. S. (2001) “Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe?”, Economic Policy, April, 52-82.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980) “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1): 239-253.
  • Brissimis, S. N., Hondroyiannis, G., Papazoglou, C., Tsaveas, N. T., & Vasardani, M. A. (2012) “Current Account Determinants and External Sustainability in Periods of Structural Change”, Economic Change and Restructuring, 45(1): 71-95.
  • Carton, B., Bénassy-Quéré, A., Dufrénot, G., & Batté, L. (2010) “Asymmetric Terms-of-Trade Shocks in a Monetary Union: An Application to West Africa”, Journal of African Economies, 19(5): 657-690.
  • Edwards, S. (2001) “Does the Current Account Matter?”, NBER Working Paper, (w8275).
  • Emirmahmutoğlu, F., & Köse, N. (2011) “Testing for Granger Causality in Heterogeneous Mixed Panels”, Economic Modelling, 28(3): 870-876.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987) “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Fountas, S., &, Wu, J.L. (1999) “Are the US Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?”, International Economic Journal, 13(3): 51-58.
  • Gnimassoun, B., & Coulibaly, I. (2014) “Current Account Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?”, Economic Modelling, 40: 208-226.
  • Greenidge, K., Holder, C., & Moore, A. (2011) “Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Barbados”, Applied Economics, 43(8): 973-984.
  • Gülcan, Y., & Önel, G. (2008) “The Sustainability of Turkish Current Account Deficit with Structural Breaks”, Review of Social, Economic & Business Studies, 1-13. Hakkio, C. S., & Rush, M. (1991) “Is the Budget Deficit Too Large?”, Economic Inquiry, 29(3): 429-445.
  • Hasanov, F. J., Khan, Z., Hussain, M., & Tufail, M. (2021) “Theoretical Framework for the Carbon Emissions Effects of Technological Progress and Renewable Energy Consumption”, Sustainable Development, 1-13. Husted, S. (1992) “The Emerging US Current Account Deficit in The 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 159-166.
  • Johansen, S. (1995) “Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models”, Oxford University Press on Demand.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2005) “Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach”, Prague Economic Papers, 14(1): 82-88.
  • Kapetanios, G., Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2011) “Panels with Non-stationary Multifactor Error Structures”, Journal of Econometrics, 160(2): 326-348.
  • Karahan, Ö. (2020) “Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey”, International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), 13(2): 62-69.
  • Karim, D. O., & Hervé, D. B. G. (2017) “Current Account Deficit Sustainability in CEMAC: A Threshold Cointegration Approach”, Journal of Finance and Economics, 5(4): 171-178.
  • Martin, G. M. (2000) “US Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15(1): 83-105.
  • Mann, C. L. (2002) “Perspectives on the US Current Account Deficit and Sustainability”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(3): 131-152.
  • Matsubayashi, Y. (2005) “Are US Current Account Deficits Unsustainable?: Testing for the Private and Government Intertemporal Budget Constraints”, Japan and the World Economy, 17(2): 223-237.
  • Milesi‐Ferretti, G. M., & Razin, A. (1996) “Persistent Current Account Deficits: A Warning Signal?”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 1(3): 161-181.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., & Razin, A. (1998) “Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits an Empirical Analysis”, European Economic Review, 42(3-5): 897-908.
  • Murat, S., Hobikoğlu, E. H., & Dalyancı, L. (2014) “Structure and Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkish Economy”, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 150: 977-984.
  • Musah, M., Kong, Y., Mensah, I. A., Antwi, S. K., & Donkor, M. (2020) “The Link Between Carbon Emissions, Renewable Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: A Heterogeneous Panel Evidence from West Africa”, Environmental Science & Pollution Research, 27(23): 28867-28889.
  • Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1995) “The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account”, Handbook of International Economics, 3: 1731-1799.
  • O'Connell, P. G. (1998) “The Overvaluation of Purchasing Power Parity”, Journal of International Economics, 44(1): 1-19.
  • Özata, E. (2014) “Sustainability of Current Account Deficit with High Oil Prices: Evidence from Turkey”, International Journal of Economic Sciences, 3(2): 71-88.
  • Perera, N., & Verma, R. (2008) “An Empirical Analysis of Sustainability of Trade Deficit: Evidence from Sri Lanka”, International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 5(1): 71-92.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection, http://ssrn.com/abstract=572504. Pesaran, M. H. (2006) “Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure”, Econometrica, 74(4): 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007) “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2): 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008) “A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1): 105-127.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008) “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1): 50-93.
  • Quintos, C. E. (1995) “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(4): 409-417.
  • Rahman, M. Z. (2011) “Existence of Export-Import Cointegration: A Study on Indonesia and Malaysia”, International Business Research, 4(3): 108-115. Saraç, H., & Sivri, U. (2019) “Türkiye Ekonomisi Cari Açığı Sürdürülebilir Mi? Birim Kök Testleriyle Bir İnceleme”, Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 5(2): 137-152.
  • Tiwari, A. K. (2015) “Reassessment of Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in India”, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 10(1): 67-79.
  • Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995) “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2): 225-250.
  • Turan, Z., Barak, D., & Berkman, A. N. (2016) “Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey (1989-2014)”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(2): 807-812.
  • Urbain, J. P., & Westerlund, J. (2006) “Spurious Regression in Nonstationary Panels with Cross-Unit Cointegration”, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organizations, 1-7.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008) “Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect". Journal of Applied Econometrics”, 23(2): 193-233.
  • Wu, J. L., Fountas, S., & Chen, S. L. (1996) “Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Two Industrial Countries”, Economics Letters, 52(2): 193-198.
  • Wu, J. L., Chen, S. L., & Lee, H. Y. (2001) “Are Current Account Deficits Sustainable?: Evidence from Panel Cointegration”, Economics Letters, 72(2): 219-224.
  • Yol, M. A. (2009) “Testing the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in Developing Economies: Evidence From Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 177-197.

Year 2022, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 76 - 97, 30.06.2022

Tunahan Hacıimamoğlu

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1000464

Abstract

References

  • Acemoğlu, D., Laibson, D., List, J. A., & Şener, S. (2016) “Makroekonomi”, İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım.
  • Açikgöz, S., & Akçaglayan, A. (2014) “Türkiye'de Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği”, Ege Akademik Bakis, 14(1): 83-97.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., & Fountas, S. (2003) “On the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Four ASEAN Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 14(3): 465-487.
  • Bajo-Rubio, O., Díaz-Roldán, C., & Esteve, V. (2014) “Sustainability of External Imbalances in the OECD Countries”, Applied Economics, 46(4): 441-449. Baltagi, B. H. (2008) “Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (Vol. 4)”, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Behera, H. K., & Yadav, I. S. (2019) “Explaining India’s Current Account Deficit: a Time Series Perspective”, Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 26(1): 117-138.
  • Bordo, M., Eichengreen, B., Klingebiel, D., & Martinez-Peria, M. S. (2001) “Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe?”, Economic Policy, April, 52-82.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980) “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1): 239-253.
  • Brissimis, S. N., Hondroyiannis, G., Papazoglou, C., Tsaveas, N. T., & Vasardani, M. A. (2012) “Current Account Determinants and External Sustainability in Periods of Structural Change”, Economic Change and Restructuring, 45(1): 71-95.
  • Carton, B., Bénassy-Quéré, A., Dufrénot, G., & Batté, L. (2010) “Asymmetric Terms-of-Trade Shocks in a Monetary Union: An Application to West Africa”, Journal of African Economies, 19(5): 657-690.
  • Edwards, S. (2001) “Does the Current Account Matter?”, NBER Working Paper, (w8275).
  • Emirmahmutoğlu, F., & Köse, N. (2011) “Testing for Granger Causality in Heterogeneous Mixed Panels”, Economic Modelling, 28(3): 870-876.
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987) “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
  • Fountas, S., &, Wu, J.L. (1999) “Are the US Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?”, International Economic Journal, 13(3): 51-58.
  • Gnimassoun, B., & Coulibaly, I. (2014) “Current Account Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?”, Economic Modelling, 40: 208-226.
  • Greenidge, K., Holder, C., & Moore, A. (2011) “Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Barbados”, Applied Economics, 43(8): 973-984.
  • Gülcan, Y., & Önel, G. (2008) “The Sustainability of Turkish Current Account Deficit with Structural Breaks”, Review of Social, Economic & Business Studies, 1-13. Hakkio, C. S., & Rush, M. (1991) “Is the Budget Deficit Too Large?”, Economic Inquiry, 29(3): 429-445.
  • Hasanov, F. J., Khan, Z., Hussain, M., & Tufail, M. (2021) “Theoretical Framework for the Carbon Emissions Effects of Technological Progress and Renewable Energy Consumption”, Sustainable Development, 1-13. Husted, S. (1992) “The Emerging US Current Account Deficit in The 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 159-166.
  • Johansen, S. (1995) “Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models”, Oxford University Press on Demand.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2005) “Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach”, Prague Economic Papers, 14(1): 82-88.
  • Kapetanios, G., Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2011) “Panels with Non-stationary Multifactor Error Structures”, Journal of Econometrics, 160(2): 326-348.
  • Karahan, Ö. (2020) “Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey”, International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), 13(2): 62-69.
  • Karim, D. O., & Hervé, D. B. G. (2017) “Current Account Deficit Sustainability in CEMAC: A Threshold Cointegration Approach”, Journal of Finance and Economics, 5(4): 171-178.
  • Martin, G. M. (2000) “US Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15(1): 83-105.
  • Mann, C. L. (2002) “Perspectives on the US Current Account Deficit and Sustainability”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(3): 131-152.
  • Matsubayashi, Y. (2005) “Are US Current Account Deficits Unsustainable?: Testing for the Private and Government Intertemporal Budget Constraints”, Japan and the World Economy, 17(2): 223-237.
  • Milesi‐Ferretti, G. M., & Razin, A. (1996) “Persistent Current Account Deficits: A Warning Signal?”, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 1(3): 161-181.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., & Razin, A. (1998) “Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits an Empirical Analysis”, European Economic Review, 42(3-5): 897-908.
  • Murat, S., Hobikoğlu, E. H., & Dalyancı, L. (2014) “Structure and Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkish Economy”, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 150: 977-984.
  • Musah, M., Kong, Y., Mensah, I. A., Antwi, S. K., & Donkor, M. (2020) “The Link Between Carbon Emissions, Renewable Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: A Heterogeneous Panel Evidence from West Africa”, Environmental Science & Pollution Research, 27(23): 28867-28889.
  • Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1995) “The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account”, Handbook of International Economics, 3: 1731-1799.
  • O'Connell, P. G. (1998) “The Overvaluation of Purchasing Power Parity”, Journal of International Economics, 44(1): 1-19.
  • Özata, E. (2014) “Sustainability of Current Account Deficit with High Oil Prices: Evidence from Turkey”, International Journal of Economic Sciences, 3(2): 71-88.
  • Perera, N., & Verma, R. (2008) “An Empirical Analysis of Sustainability of Trade Deficit: Evidence from Sri Lanka”, International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 5(1): 71-92.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection, http://ssrn.com/abstract=572504. Pesaran, M. H. (2006) “Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure”, Econometrica, 74(4): 967-1012.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007) “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2): 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008) “A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1): 105-127.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008) “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1): 50-93.
  • Quintos, C. E. (1995) “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(4): 409-417.
  • Rahman, M. Z. (2011) “Existence of Export-Import Cointegration: A Study on Indonesia and Malaysia”, International Business Research, 4(3): 108-115. Saraç, H., & Sivri, U. (2019) “Türkiye Ekonomisi Cari Açığı Sürdürülebilir Mi? Birim Kök Testleriyle Bir İnceleme”, Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 5(2): 137-152.
  • Tiwari, A. K. (2015) “Reassessment of Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in India”, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 10(1): 67-79.
  • Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995) “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2): 225-250.
  • Turan, Z., Barak, D., & Berkman, A. N. (2016) “Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey (1989-2014)”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(2): 807-812.
  • Urbain, J. P., & Westerlund, J. (2006) “Spurious Regression in Nonstationary Panels with Cross-Unit Cointegration”, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organizations, 1-7.
  • Westerlund, J. (2008) “Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect". Journal of Applied Econometrics”, 23(2): 193-233.
  • Wu, J. L., Fountas, S., & Chen, S. L. (1996) “Testing for the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Two Industrial Countries”, Economics Letters, 52(2): 193-198.
  • Wu, J. L., Chen, S. L., & Lee, H. Y. (2001) “Are Current Account Deficits Sustainable?: Evidence from Panel Cointegration”, Economics Letters, 72(2): 219-224.
  • Yol, M. A. (2009) “Testing the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in Developing Economies: Evidence From Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 177-197.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Tunahan Hacıimamoğlu 0000-0003-1474-8506

Publication Date June 30, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 20 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Hacıimamoğlu, T. (2022). MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 20(2), 76-97. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1000464
AMA Hacıimamoğlu T. MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. June 2022;20(2):76-97. doi:10.11611/yead.1000464
Chicago Hacıimamoğlu, Tunahan. “MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?”. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 20, no. 2 (June 2022): 76-97. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1000464.
EndNote Hacıimamoğlu T (June 1, 2022) MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 20 2 76–97.
IEEE T. Hacıimamoğlu, “MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 76–97, 2022, doi: 10.11611/yead.1000464.
ISNAD Hacıimamoğlu, Tunahan. “MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 20/2 (June 2022), 76-97. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1000464.
JAMA Hacıimamoğlu T. MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2022;20:76–97.
MLA Hacıimamoğlu, Tunahan. “MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?”. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 20, no. 2, 2022, pp. 76-97, doi:10.11611/yead.1000464.
Vancouver Hacıimamoğlu T. MINT ÜLKELERİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞI SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR Mİ?. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2022;20(2):76-97.