TİCARET POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİKLERİNİN ABD’NİN ÇİN KARŞISINDAKİ DIŞ TİCARET DENGESİNE ETKİLERİ: YAPISAL KIRILMALI BİR ANALİZ
Abstract
Bu çalışmada; ticaret politikası belirsizliklerinin (TPU) 2000:M01-20212:M03 döneminde ABD-Çin dış ticaret dengesine etkileri analiz edilmiş ve bu dengenin sürdürülebilir olduğu bulunmuştur. Reel kurdaki artışlar ABD’nin Çin’e ihracatını ve dış ticaret dengesinin sürdürülebilirliğini azaltmıştır. ABD ve Çin’de TPU’nun artmasının ABD’nin Çin’e ihracatı ve dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto (1995) testinde reel kurdan ABD’nin dış ticaret dengesine doğru belirlenen nedensellik; ABD’nin Çin’e ulusal parasının değerini baskılamayı bırakması yönündeki çabalarının haklılığına işaret etmektedir. ABD ve Çin’deki TPU’dan ABD’nin dış ticaret dengesine doğru nedensellik ilişkisi olmaması; ABD’nin uyguladığı agresif dış ticaret politikalarının bir işe yaramadığını göstermektedir. Reel kur ve ABD’nin TPU’sundan ABD’nin Çin’den ithalatına doğru belirlenen nedensellik ilişkileri; ABD’nin uyguladığı heteredoks dış ticaret politikaları ile ancak Çin’den yaptığı ithalatı etkileyebildiğini, Çin’e ihracatınınsa bu ülkenin iç dinamiklerce belirlendiğini göstermektedir. Reel kurdan Çin’in TPU’suna doğru doğru belirlenen nedensellik ilişkisi; Çin’deki TPU’nun önemli bir kaynağının, uygulanmakta olan kur politikaları olduğuna işaret etmektedir.
Keywords
Ticaret Politikası Belirsizlikleri ABD Çin Dış Ticaret Açığı Dış Ticaret Dengesi Sürdürebilirlik Yapısal Kırılmalı Analiz.
References
- Referans1 Pesaran, H.M. and Shin, R.Y. (1998) “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20st Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium
- Referans 2 Perron, P. and Zhu, X. (2005) “Structural Breaks with Deterministic and Stochastic Trends” Journal of Econometrics, 129(1-2): 65-119
- Referans 3 Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974) “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2: 111-120.
- Referans 4 Baharumshah, A.Z., Lau, E. and Fountas, S. (2004) “Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach”, National University of Ireland, Department of Economics, Working Paper, No. 73.
- Referans 5 Bai, J. and Perron, P. (1998) “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66: 47–78.
- Referans 6 Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003a) “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 6: 72–78
- Referans 7 Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003b) “Critical Values for Multiple Structural Change Tests”, Econometrics Journal, 18: 1–22.
- Referans 8 Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J. (2016) “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4): 1593-1636.
THE EFFECTS OF TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTIES ON THE USA'S FOREIGN TRADE BALANCE AGAINST CHINA: AN ANALYSIS WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS
Abstract
In this study, the effects of trade policy uncertainties (TPU) on the foreign trade balance between US-China in the 2000:M01-2021:M03 period were analyzed and it was found that the balance was sustainable. Increases in the real exchange rate caused a decrease in the USA's exports to China and the sustainability of the foreign trade balance of US. It was determined that the increase in TPU in the US and China did not have a significant effect on the US's exports to China and the foreign trade balance. The causality determined in the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test from the real exchange rate to the foreign trade balance of the US points at the justification of the US's efforts to make China stop suppressing the value of its national currency. The fact that there is no causal relationship from the TPU in the USA and China to the foreign trade balance of the US shows that the aggressive foreign trade policies implemented by the US are of no use. The causality relationships from the real exchange rate and the US's TPU to the US's imports from China show that the US's heterodox foreign trade policies can only affect its imports from China, and its exports to China were determined by the China's internal dynamics. The causality relationship between the real effective exchange rate and China's TPU indicates that an important source of the TPU in China is the exchange rate policies of China
Keywords
Trade Policy Uncertainty US China Trade Deficit Trade Balance Sustainability Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks
References
- Referans1 Pesaran, H.M. and Shin, R.Y. (1998) “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20st Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium
- Referans 2 Perron, P. and Zhu, X. (2005) “Structural Breaks with Deterministic and Stochastic Trends” Journal of Econometrics, 129(1-2): 65-119
- Referans 3 Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. (1974) “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2: 111-120.
- Referans 4 Baharumshah, A.Z., Lau, E. and Fountas, S. (2004) “Current Account Deficit Sustainability: A Panel Approach”, National University of Ireland, Department of Economics, Working Paper, No. 73.
- Referans 5 Bai, J. and Perron, P. (1998) “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”, Econometrica, 66: 47–78.
- Referans 6 Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003a) “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 6: 72–78
- Referans 7 Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003b) “Critical Values for Multiple Structural Change Tests”, Econometrics Journal, 18: 1–22.
- Referans 8 Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J. (2016) “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4): 1593-1636.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Economics |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | June 30, 2022 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2022 Volume: 20 Issue: 2 |