Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Year 2022, Volume: 20 Issue: 4, 387 - 400, 31.12.2022

Yağmur Can Gaberli Ümit Gaberli Mehmet Emre Güler

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1168124
Cited By: 1

Abstract

In this study, the effects of political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism on tourism were empirically analysed, from the 2005 to 2018 period. A literature review on terrorism, violence, and political stability in tourism is included in the first part. The second part panel co-integration analysis has been carried out worldwide within 137 countries. As a result of the analysis, a positive long-run relationship was found between the change in the number of tourists and the political stability - no violence index. In addition, it was tried to produce evidence of whether there is an endogeneity between them.

Keywords

Tourism Terrorism Violence Political Stability Panel Co-Integration

References

  • Aydın, A., Darici, B., and Taşçı, H. (2015). Uluslararası Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (45), 143-177.
  • Breitung, J. and Pesaran, H. (2005). Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels. CESifo Working Paper, No. 1565, 1-50. Munich, Germany.
  • Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics, the Review of Economic Studies, 47 (1), 239-253.
  • Caniklioğlu, D. M. (1999). Seçim Sistemlerinin Siyasi İstikrarın Sağlanmasındaki Rolü. Anayasa Yargısı Dergisi, 16, 17-44.
  • Çelik, N. and Karaçuka, M. (2017). Terör Saldırılarının Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Öznelinde Ampirik Bir Analiz. Ege Academic Review, 17(3), 313-322.
  • Chisadza, C., Clance, M., Gupta, R., and Wanke, P. (2022). Uncertainty and tourism in Africa. Tourism Economics, 28(4), 964-978.
  • Chudik and Pesaran (2015). Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Models With Weakly Exogenous Regressors, Journal of Econometrics, 188 (2), 393-420.
  • Detotto, C., Giannoni, S., and Goavec, C. (2021). Does Good Governance Attract Tourists? Tourism Management, 82(5), 104155.
  • Eberhardt, M. and Presbitero, A. F. (2015). Public Debt and Growth: Heterogeneity and Non-Linearity, Journal of International Economics, 97 (1), 45-58.
  • Fauzel, S. and Seetanah, B. (2022). Assessing the Impact of Terrorism on African Tourism Demand. Tourism Analysis.
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J. P., and Westerlund, J. (2016). Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982-1004.
  • Groizard, J. L., Ismael, M., and Santana-Gallego, M. (2022). Political upheavals, tourism flight, and spillovers: the case of the Arab spring. Journal of Travel Research, 61(4), 921-939.
  • Im, K., Pesaran, H. and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), 53-74.
  • Karakoç, E. (2020). Terör ve Toplumsal Olayların Turizm Talebi Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Atılım Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Khan, A., Bibi, S., Lyu, J., Babar, Z. U., Alam, M., & Hayat, H. (2022). Tourism development and well-being: the role of population and political stability. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, 15(1), 89-115.
  • Kozak, N., Kozak, M.A and Kozak M. (2021). Genel Turizm: İlkeler ve Kavramlar. Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61 (1): 631-652.
  • Manrique-de-Lara-Peñate, C., Gallego, M. S., & Valle, E. V. (2022). The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism. Economic Modelling, 105892.
  • Özcan, C. C., and Özmen, İ. (2016). Terör ve Turizm İlişkisinin Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analizi: AB ve Mena Örneği. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(4), 69-83.
  • Persyn, D. and Westerlund, J. (2008). Error Correction Based Cointegration Tests for Panel Data. Stata Journal, 8 (2), 232-241.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2003). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, England: Cambridge University.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 1240, 1-39, Deutschland.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence, Econometrics Journal, 11 (1), 105–127.
  • Polyzos, E., Papadopoulou, G., and Fotiadis, A. (2022). Determining terrorism proxies for the relationship with tourism demand: A global view. Tourism Analysis, 27(2), 237-247.
  • Salameh, M. T. B., and Hourani, I. (2022). The Impact of Terrorism on Tourism: Pilot Study 2007–2017: Case Study of Jordan, Egypt, Spain, and France. Dirasat, Human and Social Sciences, 49(1).
  • Santana-Gallego, M. and Fourie, J. (2022). Tourism falls apart: How insecurity affects African tourism. Tourism Economics, 28(4), 995-1008.
  • Şen, Y. (2015). Terörün Toplumlar Üzerindeki Sosyo-Ekonomik Etkilerine Bakış: Pkk Terörü ve Ağrı Gerçeği. Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(2), 17-70.
  • Sun, Y. and Luo, M. (2022). Impacts of terrorist events on tourism development: Evidence from Asia. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 46(4), 696-723.
  • Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model, Econometrica, 38 (2), 311-323.
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69 (6), 709-748.
  • Worldwide Governance Indicators (2021). www.govindicators.org (Access Date: 02.07.2022).
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2017). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
  • Zenginkuzucu, D. M. (2021). Uluslararası Hukuk, Terörizm ve Mağdur: Yeni Bir Terörizm Tanımı Denemesi. İstanbul Esenyurt Üniversitesi İşletme ve Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), 1-17

SİYASİ İSTİKRAR VE ŞİDDET/TERÖRİZM YOKLUĞUNUN TURİZM ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: BİR PANEL EŞ BÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Year 2022, Volume: 20 Issue: 4, 387 - 400, 31.12.2022

Yağmur Can Gaberli Ümit Gaberli Mehmet Emre Güler

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1168124
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, siyasi istikrarın ve şiddetin /terörizmin yokluğunun turizm üzerindeki etkileri, 2005'ten 2018'e kadar olan dönemde ampirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. Birinci bölümde turizmde terörizm, şiddet ve siyasi istikrar üzerine literatür taraması yer almaktadır. İkinci kısımda panel eş-bütünleşme analizi dünya ölçeğinde 137 ülke için yapılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, turist sayısındaki değişim ile siyasi istikrar-şiddet/terörizm yokluğu endeksi arasında uzun dönemli pozitif bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Ayrıca aralarında endojenlik olup olmadığına ilişkin kanıt üretilmeye çalışılmıştır.

Keywords

Turizm Terörizm Şiddet Siyasi Istikrar Panel Eş-Bütünleşme

References

  • Aydın, A., Darici, B., and Taşçı, H. (2015). Uluslararası Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörler: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (45), 143-177.
  • Breitung, J. and Pesaran, H. (2005). Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels. CESifo Working Paper, No. 1565, 1-50. Munich, Germany.
  • Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics, the Review of Economic Studies, 47 (1), 239-253.
  • Caniklioğlu, D. M. (1999). Seçim Sistemlerinin Siyasi İstikrarın Sağlanmasındaki Rolü. Anayasa Yargısı Dergisi, 16, 17-44.
  • Çelik, N. and Karaçuka, M. (2017). Terör Saldırılarının Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Öznelinde Ampirik Bir Analiz. Ege Academic Review, 17(3), 313-322.
  • Chisadza, C., Clance, M., Gupta, R., and Wanke, P. (2022). Uncertainty and tourism in Africa. Tourism Economics, 28(4), 964-978.
  • Chudik and Pesaran (2015). Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Models With Weakly Exogenous Regressors, Journal of Econometrics, 188 (2), 393-420.
  • Detotto, C., Giannoni, S., and Goavec, C. (2021). Does Good Governance Attract Tourists? Tourism Management, 82(5), 104155.
  • Eberhardt, M. and Presbitero, A. F. (2015). Public Debt and Growth: Heterogeneity and Non-Linearity, Journal of International Economics, 97 (1), 45-58.
  • Fauzel, S. and Seetanah, B. (2022). Assessing the Impact of Terrorism on African Tourism Demand. Tourism Analysis.
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J. P., and Westerlund, J. (2016). Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982-1004.
  • Groizard, J. L., Ismael, M., and Santana-Gallego, M. (2022). Political upheavals, tourism flight, and spillovers: the case of the Arab spring. Journal of Travel Research, 61(4), 921-939.
  • Im, K., Pesaran, H. and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), 53-74.
  • Karakoç, E. (2020). Terör ve Toplumsal Olayların Turizm Talebi Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Atılım Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Khan, A., Bibi, S., Lyu, J., Babar, Z. U., Alam, M., & Hayat, H. (2022). Tourism development and well-being: the role of population and political stability. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, 15(1), 89-115.
  • Kozak, N., Kozak, M.A and Kozak M. (2021). Genel Turizm: İlkeler ve Kavramlar. Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61 (1): 631-652.
  • Manrique-de-Lara-Peñate, C., Gallego, M. S., & Valle, E. V. (2022). The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism. Economic Modelling, 105892.
  • Özcan, C. C., and Özmen, İ. (2016). Terör ve Turizm İlişkisinin Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analizi: AB ve Mena Örneği. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(4), 69-83.
  • Persyn, D. and Westerlund, J. (2008). Error Correction Based Cointegration Tests for Panel Data. Stata Journal, 8 (2), 232-241.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2003). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, England: Cambridge University.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 1240, 1-39, Deutschland.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence, Econometrics Journal, 11 (1), 105–127.
  • Polyzos, E., Papadopoulou, G., and Fotiadis, A. (2022). Determining terrorism proxies for the relationship with tourism demand: A global view. Tourism Analysis, 27(2), 237-247.
  • Salameh, M. T. B., and Hourani, I. (2022). The Impact of Terrorism on Tourism: Pilot Study 2007–2017: Case Study of Jordan, Egypt, Spain, and France. Dirasat, Human and Social Sciences, 49(1).
  • Santana-Gallego, M. and Fourie, J. (2022). Tourism falls apart: How insecurity affects African tourism. Tourism Economics, 28(4), 995-1008.
  • Şen, Y. (2015). Terörün Toplumlar Üzerindeki Sosyo-Ekonomik Etkilerine Bakış: Pkk Terörü ve Ağrı Gerçeği. Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(2), 17-70.
  • Sun, Y. and Luo, M. (2022). Impacts of terrorist events on tourism development: Evidence from Asia. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 46(4), 696-723.
  • Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model, Econometrica, 38 (2), 311-323.
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69 (6), 709-748.
  • Worldwide Governance Indicators (2021). www.govindicators.org (Access Date: 02.07.2022).
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2017). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi: Stata Uygulamalı. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
  • Zenginkuzucu, D. M. (2021). Uluslararası Hukuk, Terörizm ve Mağdur: Yeni Bir Terörizm Tanımı Denemesi. İstanbul Esenyurt Üniversitesi İşletme ve Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), 1-17
There are 33 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Yağmur Can Gaberli 0000-0002-0828-0954

Ümit Gaberli 0000-0003-0097-174X

Mehmet Emre Güler 0000-0002-8689-9859

Publication Date December 31, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 20 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Can Gaberli, Y., Gaberli, Ü., & Güler, M. E. (2022). IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 20(4), 387-400. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1168124
AMA Can Gaberli Y, Gaberli Ü, Güler ME. IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS. Journal of Management and Economics Research. December 2022;20(4):387-400. doi:10.11611/yead.1168124
Chicago Can Gaberli, Yağmur, Ümit Gaberli, and Mehmet Emre Güler. “IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20, no. 4 (December 2022): 387-400. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1168124.
EndNote Can Gaberli Y, Gaberli Ü, Güler ME (December 1, 2022) IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20 4 387–400.
IEEE Y. Can Gaberli, Ü. Gaberli, and M. E. Güler, “IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS”, Journal of Management and Economics Research, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 387–400, 2022, doi: 10.11611/yead.1168124.
ISNAD Can Gaberli, Yağmur et al. “IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20/4 (December 2022), 387-400. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1168124.
JAMA Can Gaberli Y, Gaberli Ü, Güler ME. IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2022;20:387–400.
MLA Can Gaberli, Yağmur et al. “IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS”. Journal of Management and Economics Research, vol. 20, no. 4, 2022, pp. 387-00, doi:10.11611/yead.1168124.
Vancouver Can Gaberli Y, Gaberli Ü, Güler ME. IMPACT OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM ON TOURISM: A PANEL CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2022;20(4):387-400.

Cited By

Sustainability of Human Development Through Governance: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Countries
Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1327959