AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY

Year 2023, Volume: 21 Issue: 3, 393 - 409, 14.10.2023

Işıl Demirtaş , Burak Baş

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1335624

Abstract

Turkey has experienced rapid population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization in recent years. Therefore, Turkey's demand for energy has been increasing over the years. Also the main issue is Turkey's foreign dependency on energy resources. Researching the determinants of energy consumption is important in terms of developing policies for more efficient use of energy. For this reason, the determinants of energy consumption in Turkey were analyzed using the ARDL Boundary Test and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, based on data from 1980-2020. While fossil fuel energy consumption as the dependent variable in the model, GDP, export rate and the ratio of fixed capital investments to GDP are independent variables. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a longrun relationship between the variables. An increase in economic growth by 1 percent, increases energy consumption by 0.34%. An increase in exports by 1 percent increases energy consumption by 0.57% in the long run while an increase in fixed capital investments by 1 percent, increases energy consumption by 0.15%. As a result of the causality analysis, it was concluded that there is one-way causality from GDP growth to energy consumption. It has been determined that there is a one-way causality running from fixed capital investments and exports to energy consumption.

Keywords

Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Fixed Capital Investments, Export, ARDL Bound Test

TÜRKİYE’DE ENERJİ TÜKETİMİNİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ ÜZERİNE EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

Abstract

Türkiye son yıllarda hızlı nüfus artışı, hızlı kentleşme ve sanayileşme ile karşı karşıyadır. Bu durum yıllar içinde enerjiye olan talebi arttırmaktadır. Diğer taraftan Türkiye, enerjide önemli oranda dışa bağımlı bir ülkedir. Dolayısıyla enerji tüketiminin belirleyicilerinin tespit edilmesi, enerjinin daha verimli kullanılmasına yönelik politikaların geliştirilmesi açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada 1980-2020 yıllarına dair verilere dayanılarak Türkiye’de enerji tüketiminin belirleyicileri ARDL Sınır Testi ve Toda- Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak fosil kaynaklı enerji tüketimi; bağımsız değişken olarak ise GSYİH, ihracat oranı ve sabit sermaye yatırımlarının GSYİH’ye oranı analize dahil edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyümedeki %1’lik artış enerji tüketimini %0,34 arttırmaktadır. İhracatta %1’lik bir artış uzun dönemde enerji tüketimini %0,57 oranında, sabit sermaye yatırımlarındaki %1’lik artış ise %0,15 oranında arttırmaktadır. Yapılan nedensellik analizi sonucu GSYİH artışından enerji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Sabit sermaye yatırımları ve ihracattan enerji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik varlığı tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Enerji Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları, İhracat, ARDL Sınır Testi

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