Spatial and temporal distribution of b and p values of 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake estimated from its aftershocks and assessments for future earthquake hazard

Year 2005, Volume: 26 Issue: 1, 75 - 91, 01.02.2005

Murat Utkucu Canan Çetin Ömer Alptekin

Abstract

Keywords

-

12 Kasım 1999 Düzce depremi artçı depremlerinden hesaplanan b ve p değerlerinin uzaysal ve zamansal dağılımı ve gelecekteki sismik tehlike açısından değerlendirmeler

Abstract

Gerek laboratuvar, gerekse gerçek deprem verilerini esas alan çalıflmalardan deprem istatistiğinin frekans-büyüklük bağıntısındaki b değerinin yerkabuğundaki gerilim ile ters orantılı olduğu anlaflılmıfltır. Bu çalıflmada; 12 Kasım 1999 Düzce depreminin artçı deprem verilerinden bu depremin kırılma düzlemi ve bitifliğindeki Karadere veElmalık fay segmentleri boyunca yüzeyde ve derinlik boyutunda b değerleri ve artçı deprem azalım sabiti p’ninuzaysal dağılımı bir bilgisayar paket programı kullanılarak hesaplanmıfltır. Düzce depremi için, Düzce fay segmenti üzerindeki pürüz boyunca haritalanan b=1.2-1.5 ve p=1-1.3 değerleri daha yüksek iken, Karadere (b=0.8-1.0,p=0.7-0.8) ve Elmalık (b=1.1-1.2, p=1.1) fay segmentleri boyunca daha düflük b değerleri elde edilmifltir. Ayrıca,b değerlerinin özellikle Düzce fayı üzerinde 1999 Düzce depremi öncesine göre yükseldiği görülmüfltür. Bu durum,Karadere ve Elmalık fay segmentleri boyunca Düzce depremi sonrasında gerilme artıflları (Düzce fayı üzerinde isegerilme azalımı) olduğunu düflündürmektedir. Karadere fay segmentinin 17 Ağustos 1999 Kocaeli depremi sırasında kırılmıfl olması ve Elmalık fay segmenti üzerinde geçen yüzyıl içinde kaydadeğer bir deprem olduğuna iliflkin veri olmaması, 1999 Düzce depremi sonrasında bu fay üzerinde deprem tehlikesinin arttığı fleklinde yorumlanmıfltır

Keywords

b değeri, deprem tehlikesi, Düzce depremi, Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu, p değeri, pürüz

References

• Aki, K., 1965. Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN= a-bM and its confidence li- mits. Bulletin of Earthquake Research Ins- titute of Tokyo University, 43, 237-239.
• Akyüz, H. S., Hartleb, R., Barka, A., Altunel, E., Su- nall, G., Meyer, B., and Armijo, R., 2002. Surface rupture and slip distribution of the 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake (M 7.1), North Anatolian Fault, Bolu, Turkey. Bulletin of Seismological Society of Ameri- ca, 92(1), 61-66.
• Amelung, F., and King, G., 1997. Earthquake scaling laws for creeping and non-creeping faults. Geophysical Research Letters, 24, 507- 510.
• Aydın, A., and Kalafat, D., 2002. Surface ruptures of the 17 August and 12 November 1999 İz- mit and Düzce earthquakes in Northwes- tern Anatolia, Turkey: Their tectonic and kinematic significance and the associated damage. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 92 (1), 95-106.
• Barka, A., 1996. Slip distribution along the North Ana- tolian Fault associated with large earthqu- akes of the Period 1939 to 1967. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 86, 1238-1254.
• Barka, A., and Kadinsky-Cade, K., 1988. Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity. Tectonics, 7, 663- 684.
• Barka, A., Akyüz, H. S., Altunel, E, Sunal, G., Çakır, Z., Dikbafl, A., Yerli, B., Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Chabalier, J. B., Rockwell, T., Dolan, J. R., Hartleb, R., Dawson, T., Christoffer- son, S., Tucker, A., Furnal, T., Landridge, R., Stenner, H., Lettis, W., Bachhuber, J., and Page, W., 2002. The surface rupture and slip distribution of the 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake (M 7.4), North Anatolian Fault. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 92, 43-60.
• Bouchon, M., 1997. The state of stress on some fa- ults of the San Andreas system as inferred from near-field strong-motion data. Bulle- tin of Seismological Society of America, 102, 11731-11744.
• Burgmann, R., Ayhan, M. E., Fielding, E. J., Wright, T. J., McClusky, S., Aktuğ, B., Demir, C., Lenk, O., and Türkezer, A., 2002. Defor- mation during the 12 November 1999 Düz- ce, Turkey, Earthquake, from GPS and in- sar data. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 92 (1), 161-171.
• Çetin, C., 2004. Marmara Bölgesi’nde artçı deprem- lerin istatistiksel analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi, Jeofizik Mü- hendisliği Bölümü, 93 s (yayımlanmamıfl).
• Davis, S. D., and Frohlich, C., 1991. Single-link clus- ter analysis of earthquake aftershocks: Decay laws and regional variations. Jour- nal of Geophysical Research, 96, 6335- 6350.
• Drakatos, G., and Latoussakis, J., 2001. A catalog of aftershock sequences in Greece (1971- 1997): Their spatial and temporal charac- teristics. Journal of Seismology 5, 137- 145.
• Dreger, D., and Kaverina, A., 2000. Seismic remote sensing for the earthquake source pro- cess and near-source strong shaking: A case study of the October 16, 1999, Hec- tor Mine earthquake. Geophysical Rese- arch Letters, 27, 1941-1944.
• Enescu, B., and Ito, K., 2002. Spatial analysis of the frequency distribution and decay rate of aftershock activity of the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake. Earth Planets Space, 54, 847-859.
• Frohlich, C., and Davis, S., 1993. Teleseismic b valu- es: or, much ado about 1.0. Journal of Ge- ophysical Research, 98, 631-644.
• Gee, L.S., Neuhauser, D.S., Dreger, D.S., Pasyanos, M.E., Uhrhammer, R.A., and Ramano- wicz, B., 1996. Real-time seismology at UC Berkeley: The rapid earthquake data integration system. Bulletin of Seismologi- cal Society of America, 86, 936-945.
• Guo, Z., and Ogata, Y., 1997. Statistical relations bet- ween the parameters of aftershocks in ti- me, space and magnitude. Journal of Ge- ophysical Research, 102(B2), 2857-2873.
• Gupta, H. K., 2002. A review of recent studies of trig- gered earthquakes by artificial water re- servoirs with special emphasis on earth- quakes in Koyna, India. Earth-Science Re- views, 58, 279-310.
• Gutenbeg, R., and Richter, C. F., 1954. Earthquake magnitude, intensity, enegy and accelera- tion. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 32, 163-191.
• Hartleb, R. D., Dolan, J. F., Akyüz, H. S., Dawson, T. E., Tucker, A. Z., Yerli, B., Rockwell, T.K., Toraman, E., Çakır, Z., Dikbafl, A., and Al- tunel, E. 2002. Surface rupture and slip distribution along the Karadere segment of the 12 November 1999 Düzce, Turkey, earthquakes. Bulletin of Seismological So- ciety of America, 92, 67-78.
• Hartzell, S., 1989. Comparison of seismic waveform inversion results for the rupture history of a finite fault: Application to the 1986 North Palm Springs, California, earthquake. Jo- urnal of Geophysical Research, 94, 7515- 7534.
• Hartzell, S., and Langer, C., 1993. Importance of mo- del parametrization in finite fault inversi- ons: Application to the 1974 Mw8.0 Peru Earthquake. Journal of Geophysical Rese- arch, 98, 22123-22134.
• Hartzell, S. H., Stewart, G. S., and Mendoza, C., 1991. Comparison of L1 and L2 norms in a teleseismic waveform inversion for the slip history of the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake. Bulletin of Seismological So- ciety of America, 81, 1518-1539.
• Hubert-Ferrari, A., Barka, A., Jacques, E., Nalbant, S. S., Meyer, B., Armijo, R., Topponnier, P., and King, G. C. P., 2000. Seismic ha- zard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake. Na- ture, 404, 269-273.
• Ishimoto, M., and Iida K., 1939. Observations of earthquakes registered with the microseis- mograph constructed recently. Bulletin of Earthquake Research Institute, Univiver- sity of Tokyo, 17, 443-478.
• Kalafat, D., Öz, G., Özel, N., Kara, M., Öğütçü, Z., Horasan, G., Püskülcü, S., Kılıç, K., Gün- gör, A., İnce, fi., Görgün, E., Pınar, A., Ka- fadar, N., Yılmazer, M., Kekovalı, K., Kö- seoğlu, A., Çomoğlu, M., Günefl, Y. ve Su- varikli, M., 2001. 17 Ağustos 1999 İzmit, 12 Kasım 1999 Düzce Deprem Etkinlikleri, Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Yayınları No: 702, 373 s.
• Kanamori, H., Hauksson, E., and Heaton, T., 1997. Real-time seismology and earthquake ha- zard mitigation. Nature, 390, 461-464.
• King, G.C.P., Stein, R. S., and Lin, J., 1994. Static stress changes and triggering of earthqu- akes. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 84, 935-953.
• Kinoshita, S., 1998. Kyoshin net (K-Net). Seismoligi- cal Research Letters, 69, 309-332.
• Kisslinger, C., 1996. Aftershocks and fault-zone pro- perties. Advance in Geophysics, 38, 1-36.
• Kisslinger, C., and Jones, L. M., 1991. Properties of aftershock sequences in Southern Califor- nia. Journal of Geological Research, 96, 11947-11958.
• Lachernbruch, A. H., Sass, J. H., and Galanis, S. P. JR., 1985. Heat flow in Southernmost Ca- lifornia and the orijin of the Salton Trough. Journal of Geophysical Research, 90, 6709-6736.
• Marcellini, A., 1997. Physical model of aftershock temporal behavior. Tectonophysics, 277, 137- 146.
• Mendoza, C., 1993. Coseismic slip of two large Me- xican earthquakes from teleseismic body waveforms: Implications for asperity inte- raction in the Michoacan plate boundary segment. Journal of Geophysical Rese- arch, 93, 8197-8210.
• Mendoza, C., 1996. Rapid derivation of rupture his- tory for large earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters, 67, 19 -26.
• Mendoza, C., and Hartzell, S., 1988. Aftershock pat- terns and mainshock faulting. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 78, 1438- 1449.
• Mikumo, T., Miyatake, T., and Santoyo, M., 1998. Dynamic rupture of asperities and stress change during a sequence of large interp- late earthquakes in the Mexican subducti- on Zone. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 88, 686-702.
• Mogi, K., 1962. Study of the elastic shocks caused by the fructure of heterogeneous materials and its relation to the earthquake pheno- mena. Bulletin of Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 40, 125- 173.
• Mogi, K., 1967. Regional variation of aftershock acti- vity. Bulletin of Earthquake Research Ins- titute University of Tokyo, 46, 175-203.
• Olsson, R., 1999. An estimation of the maximum b value in the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Geodynamics, 27, 547-552.
• Omori, F., 1894. Investigation of aftershocks. Report of Imperial Earthquake Investigation Com- mittee, 2, 103-139.
• Oppenheimer, D.H., Bakun, W.H., and Lindh, A.G., 1990. Slip partitioning of the Calveras fa- ult, California, and prospects for future earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Re- search, 95, 8483-8498.
• Öncel, A.O., and Wyss, M., 2000. The major asperi- ties of the1999 M= 7.4 Izmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decades before it. Geophysical Journal In- ternational, 143, 501-506.
• Pınar, A., 2004. Kiflisel görüflme. İstanbul Üniversite- si, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Jeofizik Mühen- disliği Bölümü, İstanbul.
• Scholz, C. H., 1968. The frequency-magnitude relati- on of microfracturing in rock and its relati- on to earthquakes. Bulletin of Seismologi- cal Soceity of America, 58, 399-415.
• Sobiesiak, M., 2000. Fault plane structure of the An- tofagasta, Chile earthquake of 1995. Ge- ophysical Research Letters, 27, 577-600.
• Taymaz, T., 2000. Marmara bölgesinin sismotektoni- ği: 1999 Gölcük-Sapanca-Düzce deprem- lerinin kaynak mekanizması çözümleri. Batı Anadolunun Depremselliği Sempoz- yumu 2000, Bildiriler Kitabı, 209-219.
• Tibi, R., Bock, G., Xia, Y., Baumbach, M., Grosser, Ii. Milkereit, C., Karakisa, S., Zünbül, S., Kind, R., and Zschau, J., 2001. Rupture process of the August 17 İzmit and No- vember 12, 1999 Düzce (Turkey) earthqu- akes. Geophysical Journal International, 144, F1-F7.
• Toda, S., and Stein, R.S., 2000. Did stress triggering cause the off-fault aftershocks of the 25 March 1998 Mw= 8.1 Antarctic Plate earth- qauke. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 2301-2304.
• Tsapanos, T. M., 1992. Considerations on the global seismic sequences: The second and the third largest aftershocks. Geophsical Jour- nal International, 111, 630-636.
• Tsapanos, T., 1995. The temporal distribution of af- tershock sequences in the subduction zo- nes of the Pasific. Geophysical Journal In- ternational, 123, 633-636.
• Urbancic, T. I., Trifu, C. I., Long, J. M., and Toung, R. P., 1992. Space-time correlations of b va- lue with stress release. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 139, 449-462.
• Utkucu, M., 2002. Anadolu depremlerinde kırılma sü- recinin sonlu-fay modelleriyle incelenmesi. Doktora Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 138 s (yayımlanma- mıfl).
• Utkucu, M. ve Alptekin, Ö., 2001. Gerçek- zaman sis- molojisi, dünyadaki geliflimi ve Türkiye’de uygulanabilirliği. İstanbul Üniversitesi Mü- hendislik Fakültesi Yerbilimleri Dergisi, 15(13), 139-152.
• Utkucu, M., Nalbant, S., Mcclusky, J., Steacy, S., and Alptekin, Ö., 2003. Slip distribution and stress changes associated with the 1999 November 12, Düzce (Turkey) earthquake (Mw=7.1). Geophysical Journal Internati- onal, 153, 229-241.
• Utsu, T., 1961. A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks. Geophysical Magazine, 30, 521- 603.
• Utsu, T., Ogata, Y., and Matsuura, R.S., 1995. The centenary of the Omori’s formula for a de- cay law of aftershock activity. Journal of Physics of the Earth., 43, 1-33.
• Wald, D.J., 1992. Strong-motion and broadband tele- seismic analysis of the 1991 Sierra Madre, California, earthquake. Journal Geophysi- cal Research, 97, 11033-11046.
• Wald, D. J., and Somerville, P. G., 1995. Variable-slip rupture model of the great 1923 Kanto, Ja- pan, earthquake: Geodetic and body-wa- veform analysis. Bulletin of Seismological Soceity of America, 85, 159-177.
• Warren, N. W., and Latham, G.V., 1970. An experi- mental study of thermally induced microf- racturing and its relation to volcanic seis- micity. Journal of Geophysical Research, 75, 4455-4464.
• Wiemer, S., 2001. A software package to analyze se- ismicity: ZMAP. Seismological Research Letter, 72(2), 374-383.
• Wiemer, S., and Mcnutt, S., 1997. Variations in frequ- ency-magnitude distribution with depth in two volcanic areas: Mount St. Helens, Washington, and Mt. Spurr, Alaska. Ge- ophysical Research Letters, 24, 189-192.
• Wiemer, S., and Wyss, M., 1997. Mapping the frequ- ency-magnitude distribution in asperities: an improved technique to calculate recur- rence times? Journal of Geophysical Re- search, 102, 15115-15128.
• Wiemer, S., and Katsumata, K., 1999. Spatial variabi- lity of seismicity parameters in aftershock zones. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 13135-13151.
• Wiemer, S., Mcnutt, S. R., and M. Wyss, 1998. Tem- poral and three-dimensional spatial analy- sis of the frequency-magnitude distribution near Long Valley Caldera, California. Ge- ophysical Journal International, 134, 409- 421.
• Wright, T., Fielding, E., and Parsons, B., 2001. Trig- gered slip: observations of the 17 August 1999 İzmit (Turkey) earthquake using ra- dar interferometry. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 1079-1082.
• Wu, Y. M., Lee, W. H.K., Chen, C. C., Shin, T.C., Teng, T.L., and Tsai, Y.B., 2000. Perfor- mance of the Taiwan rapid earthquake re- lease system (RTD) during the 1999 Chi- Chi (Taiwan) earthquake. Seismological Research Letters, 71, 338-343.
• Wyss, M., Shimazaki, K., and Wiemer, S., 1997. Mapping active magma chambers by b va- lue beneath Off-Izu volcano, Japan. Jour- nal of Geophysical Research, 102, 20413- 20433.
• Zünbül, S., Karakısa, S., Üretürk, N., Altin, N. ve Tür- koğlu, M., 2001. 12 Kasım 1999 Düzce depremi (Mw=7.2) Sabonet artçı deprem çalıflmaları. Jeofizik Bülteni, 38, 82-85.