Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve Civarındaki Güncel Deprem Aktivitesinin Bölgesel ve Zamana Bağlı Analizleri

Year 2017, Volume: 38 Issue: 2, 193 - 228, 01.08.2017

Serkan Öztürk

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, sismotektonik b-değeri, fraktal boyut Dc-değeri ve öncü sismik durgunluk Z-değeri ile bunlar arasındaki ilişkileri
kullanarak, sismik olarak dünyadaki en aktif doğrultu atımlı fay sistemlerinden biri olan Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve civarı
için depremselliğin bölgesel ve zamana bağlı değişimleri analiz edilmiştir. b-değeri ile Dc-değeri arasında güncel ve güvenilir
bir istatistiksel ilişki ortaya koyabilmek için, birkaç regresyon yöntemi test edilmiştir. KAFZ ve civarı için, Ortogonal regresyon
uyumu ile çok güçlü negatif ilişki katsayısına (r=-0.98) sahip Dc=2.46-0.58*b ilişkisi daha güvenilir olarak hesaplanmıştır.
b ve Dc-değerlerinin zamana bağlı değişimlerinde önemli dalgalanmalar görülmüştür ve sonuçta, 2012-2013 yılları arasında
b-değerlerindeki azalım ile Dc-değerlerindeki artış eğilimi, KAFZ ve civarındaki gelecek deprem potansiyeli açısından önemli
olabilir. 1.0’dan küçük b-değerleri ile 1.85’ten büyük Dc-değerleri Düzce fayı civarı ve Karadeniz kıyısı, Pülümür fayı ve Erzincan
civarı, Pülümür-Karlıova arası, Sancak-Uzunpınar ve Göynük fay zonlarını içerisinde alan bölgelerde gözlenmiştir. 2016 yılı başında,
Enez, Etili fayının kuzeyi, Çanakkale ve Edremit, Tekirdağ-Silivri ve Marmara denizi, Karadeniz kısmı ve Yalova-İzmit civarı,
Manyas fay zonunun kuzeyi, İznik-Gebze, Düzce fayı ve Karadeniz kıyısı, İsmetpaşa segmenti ile Laçin-Merzifon fay zonları ve
civarında sismik durgunluk anomalileri gözlenmiştir. Hem en düşük b-değeri hem de en yüksek Dc-değeri ile yüksek Z-değerine
sahip bölgeler ise Düzce fayı civarı ve Karadeniz kıyılarıdır. Önemli bir sonuç olarak, bu sismotektonik parametrelerin birlikte değerlendirilmesi,
KAFZ ve civarındaki gelecek deprem potansiyelini ortaya koymada bazı önemli ipuçları sağlayabilir ve bu anomali
alanları gelecek depremlerin olası bölgeleri olarak yorumlanabilir.

Keywords

b-değeri, fraktal boyut, Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu, öncü sismik durgunluk, regresyon

References

• Acharya, H.K., 1979. Regional variations in the rupture-length magnitude relationships and their dynamical significance. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 69(6), 2063-2084.
• Aki, K., 1965. Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a – bM and its confidence limits. Bulletin Earthquake Research Institute Tokyo University, 43, 237-239.
• Aki, K., 1981. Earthquake prediction. American Geophysical Union. vol 4. Washington, pp 566- 574.
• Akyüz, H.S., Hartleb, R., Barka, A., Altunel, E., Sunal, G., Meyer, B., ve Armijo, R., 2002. Surface Rupture and Slip Distribution of the 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake (M 7.1), North Anatolian Fault, Bolu, Turkey. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(1), 61-66.
• Ambraseys, N.N., ve Zátopek, S., 1969. The Mudurnu Valley, West Anatolia, Turkey, earthquake of 22 July 1967. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 59(2), 521-589.
• Ambraseys, N.N., ve Jackson, J.A., 1998. Faulting associated with historical and recent earthquakes in the Mediterranean region. Geophysics Journal International, 133, 390-406.
• Arabasz, W. J., ve Wyss, M., 1996. Significant precursory seismic quiescence in the extensional Wasatch front region Utah. EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 77, F455.
• Arabasz, W. J., ve Hill, S.J., 1996. Applying Reasenberg cluster analysis algorithm to regional earthquake catalog outside California (abstract). Seismological Research Letters, 67, 2, 30.
• Aydındağ, E., 2015. Kuzey Anadolu ve San Andreas Fay zonlarında aktif fay verilerinin fractal analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, İstanbul, 101s.
• Barka, A., 1996. Slip distribution along the North Anatolian fault associated with the large earthquakes of the period 1939 to 1967. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86, 5, 1238-1254.
• Barka, A., Akyuz, H.S., Altunel, E., Sunal, G., Cakir, Z., Dikbas, A., Yerli, B., Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Chabalier, J.B.de., Rockwell, T., Dolan, J.R., Hartleb, R., Dawson, T., Christofferson, S., Tucker, A., Fumal, T., Langridge, R., Stenner, H., Lettis, W., Bachhuber, J., ve Page, W., 2002. The Surface Rupture and Slip Distribution of the 17 August 1999 İzmit Earthquake (M 7.4). North Anatolian Fault. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(1), 43-60.
• Bayrak, Y., ve Öztürk, S., 2004. Spatial and temporal variations of the aftershock sequences of the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquake. Earth Planets Space, 56, 933-944.
• Bayrak, Y., Öztürk, S., Çınar, H., Kalafat, D., Tsapanos, T.M., Koravos, G.Ch., ve Leventakis, G.A., 2009. Estimating earthquake hazard parameters from instrumental data for different regions in and around Turkey. Engineering Geology, 10, 200-210.
• Blattberg, R.C., ve Sargent, T., 1971. Regression with non-Gaussian stable disturbances: Some sampling results. Econometrica, 39, 501- 510.
• Bozkurt, E., 2001. Neotectonics of Turkey – a synthesis. Geodinamica Acta, 14, 3-30.
• Bohnhoff, M., Martínez-Garzón, P., Bulut, F., Stierle, E., ve Ben-Zion, Y., 2016. Maximum earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian fault zone. Tectonophysics, 674, 147-165.
• Brunbaugh, D.S., ve Pınar, A., 2001. Preliminary results of study of the mechanism of the December 26,1939 Erzincan earthquake (M=7.9). American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #S52E-0690
• Bürgmann, R., Ayhan, M.E., Fielding E.J., Wright, T.J., McClusky, S., Aktuğ, B., Demir, C., Lenk O., ve Türkezer, A., 2002. Deformation during the 12 November 1999 Düzce, Turkey, earthquakes, from GPS and InSAR data. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92, 1, 161-171.
• Cadzow, J.A., 2002. Minimum 1 2  ,  and ∞  norm approximate solutions to an over determined system of linear equations. Digital Signal Processing, 12, 524-560.
• Carrol, R.J., ve Ruppert, D., 1996. The use and misuse of orthogonal regression estimation in linear errors-in-variables models. The American Statistician, 50, 1-6.
• Chouliaras, G., ve Stavrakakis, G.N., 2001. Current seismic quiescence in Greece: Implications for seismic hazard, Journal of Seismology, 5, 595-608.
• Console, R., Montuori, C., ve Murru, M., 2000. Statistical assessment of seismicty patterns in Italy: Are they precursors of subsequent events?. Journal of Seismology, 4, 435-449.
• Chen, C.C., Wang, W.C., Chang, Y.F., Wu, Y.M., ve Lee, Y.H., 2006. A correlation between the b-value and the fractal dimension from the aftershock sequence of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. Geophysical Journal International, 167, 1215–1219.
• Demirtaş, R., ve Yılmaz, R., 1996. Türkiye’nin sismotektonigi; Sismisitedeki uzun süreli değişim ve güncel sismisiteyi esas alarak deprem tahminine bir yaklaşım. T.C. Bayındırlık ve İskan Bakanlığı Yayını, 91 s., Ankara.
• Dewey, J.W., 1976. Seismicity of northern Anatolia. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 66(3), 843-868.
• Durio, A., ve Isaia, E.D., 2003. Parametric Regression Models by Minimum L2 Criterion. A Study on the Risks of Fire and Electric Shocks of Electronic Transformers. Developments in Applied Statistics, 19, 69-83.
• Erdik, M., Alpay, B.Y., Onur, T., Sesetyan, K., ve Birgoren, G., 1999. Assessment of earthquake hazard in Turkey and neighboring regions. Annali di Geofisica, 42, 1125-1138.
• Frohlich, C., ve Davis, S., 1993. Teleseismic b-values: Or, much ado about 1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98 (B1), 631-644.
• Gardner, J.K., ve Knopoff, L., 1974. Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian?. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 64, 1363-1367.
• Giloni, A., ve Padberg, M., 2002. Alternative methods of linear regression. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 35, 361-374.
• Giloni, A., Simonoff, J.S., ve Sengupta, B., 2006. Robust weighted LAD regression. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 50, 3124- 3140.
• Goltz, C., 1998. Fractal and chaotic properties of earthquakes (Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences, 77). Springer-Verlag, 178 p.
• Grassberger, P., ve Procaccia, I., 1983. Measuring the strangeness of strange attractors. Physica, 9(D), 189-208.
• Greene, W. H., 1997. Econometric Analysis. 5th edn, pp. 1026, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Grosser, H., Baumbach, M., Berckhemer, H., Baier, B., Karahan, A., Schelle, H., Krüger, F., Paulat, A., Michel, G., Demirtas, R., Gencoglu, S., ve Yılmaz, R., 1998. The Erzincan (Turkey) earthquake (Ms 6.8) of March 13, 1992, and its aftershock sequence. Pure Applied Geophysics, 152, 465-505.
• Gutenberg, R., ve Richter, C.F., 1944. Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34, 185-188.
• Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y.Y., ve Jackson, D.D., 2006. Comparison of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for Southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96, 1, 90-106.
• Heo, J.H., Kho, Y. W., Shin, H., Kim, S., ve Kim, T., 2008. Regression equations of probability plot correlation coefficient test statistics from several probability distributions. Journal of Hydrology, 355, 1-15.
• Hirata, T., 1989. Correlation between the b-value and the fractal dimension of earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 94, 7507- 7514
• Huang, Q., Öncel, A.O., ve Sobolev, G.A., 2002. Precursory seismicity changes associated with the MW=7.4 1999 August 17 Izmit (Turkey) earthquake. Geophysical Journal of International, 151, 235-242.
• Huber, P.J., 1964. Robust estimation of a location parameter. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 35, 73-101.
• Huber, P.J., 1987. The place of the L1 norm in robust estimation. In: Dodge, Y. (Ed.), Statistical Data Analysis Based on the L1 norm and Related Methods. North-Holland, Amsterdam.
• Kagan, Y. Y., ve Knopoff, L., 1980. Spatial distribution of earthquakes; the two-point correlation function. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 62, 303-320.
• Kagan, Y.Y., 2007. Earthquake spatial distribution: the correlation dimension. Geophysical Journal of International, 168, 1175-1194.
• Kalafat, D., Güneş, Y., Kara, M., Deniz, P., Kekovalı, K., Kuleli, H.S., Gulen, L., Yılmazer, M., ve Özel, N., 2007. A Revised and Extended Earthquake Catalogue for Turkey Since 1900 (M≥4.0). Boğazici University Library Cataloging, ISBN 978-975-518-281-0, İstanbul (in Turkish).
• Kanamori, H., 1981. The nature of seismicity patterns before large earthquakes, in Earthquake Prediction, Maurice Ewing Series. IV, 1–19, American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C.
• Karimi, B., McQuarrie, N., Lin, J-S., Harbert, W., 2014. Determining the geometry of the North Anatolian Fault East of the Marmara Sea through integrated stress modeling and remote sensing techniques. Tectonophysics, 623, 14-22
• Katsumata, K., ve Kasahara, M., 1999. Precursory seismic quiescence before the 1994 Kurile Earthquake (Mw=8.3) revealed by three independent seismic catalogs. Pure Applied Geophysics, 155, 43-470.
• Katsumata, K., 2011. A long-term seismic quiescence started 23 years before the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (M = 9.0). Earth Planets Space, 63, 709-712.
• Kember, G., ve Fowler, A.C., 1992. Random sampling and the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm. Physics Letters A, 161, 429-432. Ketin, İ., 1976. San Andreas ve Kuzey Anadolu Fayları arasında bir karşılaştırma. Türkiye Jeoloji Kurulu Bülteni, 19, 149-154.
• Kelleher, J., ve Savino, J., 1975. Distribution of seismicity before large strike slip and thrusttype earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 80, 260-271.
• Kutoglu, H. S., ve Akcin, H., 2006. Determination of the 30-year creep trend on the Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault using an old geodetic network. Earth Planets Space, 58, 937–942.
• Kutoglu, H.S., Akcin, H., Kemaldere, H., ve Gormus, K.S., 2008. Triggered creep rate on the Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 8, 1369-1373.
• Lorenzo-Martín, F., Roth, F., ve Wang, R., 2016. Elastic and inelastic triggering of earthquakes in the North Anatolian Fault zone. Tectonophysics, 424, 271-289.
• Leng, L., Zhang, T., Kleinman, L., ve Zhu, W., 2007. Ordinary Least Square Regression, Orthogonal Regression, Geometric Mean Regression and their Applications in Aerosol Science, Journal of Physics. Conference Series 78, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/78/1/012084.
• Mandelbrot, B.B., 1982. The fractal Geometry of Nature. Freeman Press, San Francisco
• Matcharasvili, T., Chelidze, T., ve Javakhishvili, Z., 2000. Nonlinear analysis of magnitude and interevent time interval sequences for earthquakes of Caucasian region. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 7, 9-19.
• Mogi, K., 1967. Earthquakes and fractures. Tectonophysics, 5(1), 35–55.
• Öncel, A.O., Alptekin, Ö., ve Main, I.G., 1995. Temporal variations of the fractal properties of seismicity in the western part of the North Anatolian fault zone: possible artifacts due to improvements in station coverage. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 2, 147-157.
• Öncel, A.O., Main, I.G., Alptekin, Ö., ve Cowie, P.A., 1996. Temporal variations of the fractal properties of seismicity in the north Anatolian fault zone between 31°E and 41°E. Pure Applied Geophysics, 146, 148-159.
• Öncel, A.O., ve Wilson, T.H., 2002. Space-time correlations of seismotectonic parameters: Examples from Japan and from Turkey preceding the Izmit earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(1), 339-349.
• Öncel A.O., ve Wilson, T.H. 2004. Correlation of seismotectonic variables and GPS strain- measurements in western Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, (B11), B11306.
• Öncel, A.O., ve Wilson, T.H., 2007. Anomalous seismicity preceding the 1999 Izmit event, NW Turkey. Geophysical Journal International, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03298.x.
• Özacar, A. A., Biryol, C. B., Tok, H., Gans, C. R., Zandt, G., Beck, S. L., Warren, L. M. ve Taymaz, T., 2009. Kuzey Anadolu Fayı Pasif Sismik Deneyi: İlk Bulgular. 62nd Geological Kurultai of Turkey, p. 828,13−17 April 2009, MTA-Ankara, Türkiye.
• Öztürk, S., Bayrak, Y., Çınar, H., Koravos, G.Ch., ve Tsapanos, T.M., 2008. A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey. Natural Hazards 47, 471-495.
• Öztürk, S., 2009. Deprem tehlikesi ve artçışok olasılığı değerlendirme yöntemlerinin Türkiye’deki depremlere bir uygulaması. Doktora Tezi, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Trabzon, 346s.
• Öztürk, S., 2011. Characteristics of Seismic Activity in the Western, Central and Eastern Parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and Spatial Analysis. Acta Geophysica, 59 (2), 209-238.
• Öztürk, S., ve Bayrak, Y., 2012. Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 60 (1), 92-118.
• Öztürk, S., 2012. Statistical correlation between b-value and fractal dimension regarding Turkish epicentre distribution. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 16 (2), 103-108.
• Öztürk, S., 2014. A new empirical relation between surface wave magnitude and rupture length for Turkey earthquakes. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 18 (1), 15-26
• Öztürk, S., 2015. A study on the correlations between seismotectonic b-value and Dc-value, and seismic quiescence Z-value in the western Anatolian region of Turkey. Austrian Journal of Earth Sciences, 108 (2), 172-184.
• Polat, O., Gok, E., ve Yılmaz, D., 2008. Earthquake hazard of the Aegean extension region (West Turkey). Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 17, 593-614.
• Poyraz, S.A., Teoman, M.U., Türkelli, N., Kahraman, M., Cambaz, D., Mutlu, A., Rost, S., Houseman, G.A., Thompson, D.A., Cornwell, D., Utkucu, M., Gülen, L., 2015. New constraints on micro-seismicity and stress state in the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone: Observations from a dense seismic array. Tectonophysics, 656, 190–201.
• Pucci, S., Pantosti, D., Barchi, M.R., ve Palyvos, N., 2007. A complex seismogenic shear zone: The Düzce segment of North Anatolian Fault (Turkey). Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 262, 185-203.
• Reasenberg, P.A., 1985. Second-order moment of Central California Seismicity, 1969-1982. Journal of Geophysical Research, 90, 5479- 5495.
• Reilinger, R.E., McClusky, S. C., Oral, M.B., King, W., ve Toksöz, M.N., 1997. Global Positioning System measurements of present-day crustal movements in the Arabian-Africa-Eurasia plate collision zone. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 9983-9999.
• Roy, S., Ghosh, U., Hazra, S., ve Kayal, J.R., 2011. Fractal dimension and b-value mapping in the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone. Natural Hazards, 57, 27–37.
• Savage, W.U., 1972. Microearthquake clustering near Fairview Peak, Nevada, and in the Nevada seismic zone. Journal of Geophysical Research, 77, 7049-7056.
• Scholz, C.H., 1968. The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58, 399-415.
• Smith, L.A., 1988. Intrinsic limits on dimension calculations. Physics Letters A, 133, 283-288.
• Şaroğlu, F., Emre ,O., ve Kuşcu, I., 1992. Active fault map of Turkey. General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration, Ankara, Turkey.
• Toksöz, M. N., Shakal, A. F., ve Michael, A. J., (1979). Space-time migration of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault Zone and seismic gaps. Pure Applied Geophysics, 117, 1258- 1270.
• Uhrhammer, R., 1986. Characteristics of northern and southern California seismicity. Earthquake Notes, 57, 21.
• Utsu, T., 1971. Aftershock and earthquake statistic (III): Analyses of the distribution of earthquakes in magnitude, time and space with special consideration to clustering characteristics of earthquake occurrence (1). Journal Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Series VII (Geophysics), 3, 379-441.
• Wiemer, S., ve Wyss, M., 1994. Seismic quiescence before the Landers (M=7.5) and Big Bear (6.5) 1992 earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (3), 900-916.
• Wiemer, S., ve Katsumata, K., 1999. Spatial variability of seismicity parameters in aftershock zones. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104(B6), 13,135–13,151.
• Wiemer, S., ve Wyss, M., 2000. Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan. Bulletin Seismological Society of America, 90(4), 859-869.
• Woessner, J., ve Wiemer, S., 2005. Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 95 (2), 684-698.
• Wyss, M., ve Habermann, R.E., 1988. Precursory seismic quiescence, Pure Applied Geophysics, 126, 2-4, 319-332.
• Wyss, M., Klein, F., Nagamine, K., ve Weimer, S., 2001. Anomalously high b-values in the South Flank of Kilauea Hawaii: evidence for the distribution of magma below Kilauea’s East Rift Zone. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 106, 23–37.
• Wyss, M., Sobolev, G.A., ve Clippard, J.D., 2004. Seismic quiescence precursors to two M7 earthquakes on Sakhalin Island, measured by two methods. Earth Planets Space, 56, 725-740.
• Yılmaz, V., Erisoglu, M., ve Çelik, H.E., 2004. Probabilistic prediction of the next earthquake in the NAFZ (North Anatolian Fault Zone), Turkey. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 5(2), 243-250 (in English with Turkish abstract).