Year 2017, Volume 01, Issue 1, Pages 30 - 39 2017-08-24

Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing.

Guckan Yapar [1] , Idil Yavuz [2] , Hanife Taylan Selamlar [3]

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Even though exponential smoothing (ES) is publicized as one of the most successful forecasting methods in the time series literature and it is widely used in practice due to its simplicity, its accuracy can be affected by the initialization and optimization procedures followed. It also suffers from some fundamental problems that can be seen clearly when its weighting scheme is studied closely. Exponential smoothing fails to account for the number of data points that can contribute to the forecast when assigning weights to historical data. ATA smoothing has been proposed as an alternative forecasting method and is shown to perform better than ES when the accuracies are compared on empirical data. In this paper, the properties of ATA that make it stand out from ES models will be discussed by just comparing the simple versions of both models. Empirical performance of the two simple models will also be compared based on popular error metrics.

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Initial value, M3-competition, Time series
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Primary Language en
Subjects Mathematics
Published Date August
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Author: Guckan Yapar
Institution: DOKUZ EYLÜL ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Country: Turkey


Author: Idil Yavuz

Author: Hanife Taylan Selamlar

Dates

Publication Date: August 24, 2017

Bibtex @research article { forecasting318295, journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6594}, address = {Giresun University}, year = {2017}, volume = {01}, pages = {30 - 39}, doi = {}, title = {Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing.}, key = {cite}, author = {Yapar, Guckan and Yavuz, Idil and Taylan Selamlar, Hanife} }
APA Yapar, G , Yavuz, I , Taylan Selamlar, H . (2017). Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing.. Turkish Journal of Forecasting, 01 (1), 30-39. Retrieved from http://dergipark.org.tr/forecasting/issue/28688/318295
MLA Yapar, G , Yavuz, I , Taylan Selamlar, H . "Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing.". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 01 (2017): 30-39 <http://dergipark.org.tr/forecasting/issue/28688/318295>
Chicago Yapar, G , Yavuz, I , Taylan Selamlar, H . "Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing.". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 01 (2017): 30-39
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing. AU - Guckan Yapar , Idil Yavuz , Hanife Taylan Selamlar Y1 - 2017 PY - 2017 N1 - DO - T2 - Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 30 EP - 39 VL - 01 IS - 1 SN - -2618-6594 M3 - UR - Y2 - 2017 ER -
EndNote %0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing. %A Guckan Yapar , Idil Yavuz , Hanife Taylan Selamlar %T Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing. %D 2017 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P -2618-6594 %V 01 %N 1 %R %U
ISNAD Yapar, Guckan , Yavuz, Idil , Taylan Selamlar, Hanife . "Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing.". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 01 / 1 (August 2017): 30-39.
AMA Yapar G , Yavuz I , Taylan Selamlar H . Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing.. TJF. 2017; 01(1): 30-39.
Vancouver Yapar G , Yavuz I , Taylan Selamlar H . Why and how does exponential smoothing fail? An in depth comparison of ATA-simple and simple exponential smoothing.. Turkish Journal of Forecasting. 2017; 01(1): 39-30.