Politik İstikrarsızlık Çerçevesinde Politika Ve İktisat Etkileşimi

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 39 - 54, 01.12.2015

Türker Şimşek

Öz

Çalışmada politika ve iktisat arasındaki etkileşim politik istikrarsızlık çerçevesinde ele alınarak makroekonomik performansı yansıtan politik istikrar, yatırımlar, para arzı, dışa açıklık, işsizlik, kamu harcamaları ve tüketici fiyat endeksi gibi göstergelerin ekonomide gerçekleşen dalgalanmalar üzerindeki etkisini incelemek amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla Dünya Bankası ve Uluslararası Para Fonu’nun gelirlere göre orta üst - orta alt gelirli ülkeler olarak sınıflandırdığı 2002-2013 dönemine ait veri temininde sıkıntı yaşanılmayan farklı bölgelerden 66 ülkeye panel veri analizi uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda politik istikrar endeksi, orta üst – orta alt gelir grubunda yer alan ülkeleri etkilemektedir ve bu durum ülkelerin demokratikleşme sürecinde daha çok mesafe alması, anayasal, sosyal, idari, ekonomik ve politik alanlarda önemli gelişmeler gerçekleştirmesi gerektiğini göstermiştir. Orta üst- orta alt gelir gruplarındaki ülkelerde söz konusu alanlarda kırılgan yapı ve Fırsatçı, Miyopi-Kutuplaşma, Sosyal Düzensizlik ve Zayıf Hükümet Yaklaşımlarının görüşlerinin çok kez görülmesi bu ülkelerdeki konjonktürel dalgalanmaları da arttırıcı etki göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla ekonomilerdeki ilerlemenin doğru analizi ve uzun dönemde istikrarlı bir yapıda büyüyen bir ekonomik yapıyı meydana getiren iktisat politikalarının belirlenebilmesi için bulunan sonuçların etraflıca değerlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Politik Yaklaşımlar, Panel Veri

The Interaction Of Politics And Economics In The Context Of Politıcal Instability

Öz

The interaction between politics and economics in the study
is examined within the context of political instability and it is aimed to
examine the effects of indicators such as political stability, investment,
money supply, openness, unemployment, public expenditures and consumer price
index reflecting macroeconomic performance on the fluctuations in the economy.
For this purpose, panel data analysis is being conducted on 66 countries from
different regions classified by the World Bank and the International Monetary
Fund as middle low-middle upper income countries and with no difficulties in
data provision for the period 2002-2013. As a result of the analysis, the
political stability index affects the countries in the middle lower and middle
upper income group, indicating that countries should make significant
improvements in the democratization process, in constitutional, social,
administrative, economic and political areas. In the countries with middle
lower and middle upper income groups, the fragile structure in these areas and
the frequent views of Opportunist, Myopia-Polarization, Social Disorder and
Weak Government Approaches also have an effect on the cyclical fluctuations in
these countries. Therefore, it is necessary to extensively assess the results
of the correct analysis of the progress of economies and the determination of
the economic policies that lead to a growing economic structure in a long-term
stable structure.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Politik İstikrarsızlık, Politik Yaklaşımlar, Panel Veri

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D. ve Robinson, J. A. (2002). The Political Economy of The Kuznets Curve. Review of Development Economics, 6(2), 183-203.
• Acemoglu, D. ve Robinson, J. A. (2007). Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. ve Yunyong, T. (2003). Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 49-123.
• Aisen, A. ve Veiga, F. J. (2011). How Does Political Instability Effect Economic Growth. IMF Working Paper No:12.
• Ake, C. (1975). A Definition of Political Stability. Comparative Politics, Vol. 7 (2), 271-283
• Alesina, A. ve Perotti, R. (1996). Income Distribution, Political Instability and Investment. European Economic Review, 40, 1203-1228.
• Alesina, A. (1987). Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102, 651-678.
• Alesina, A. (2007). Program Report: Political Economy.NBER Reporter, No. 3.
• Alesina, A. F. ve Sachs, J. D. (1988). Political Parties and The Business Cycle in The United States: 1948-1984. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 20(1): 63-82.
• Alesina, A.,Ozler, S., Roubini, N. ve Swagel, P. (1996). Political Instability and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 189-211.
• Alesina, A., Mirrlees, J. ve Neumann, M. J. (1989). Politics and Business Cycles in Industrial Democracies. Economic Policy, 57-98.
• Altug, S., Neyapti, B. ve Emin, M. (2012). Institutions and Business Cycles.International Finance, 15(3), 347-366.
• Aron, J. (2000). Growth and Institutions: A Review of The Evidence. The World Bank Research Observer. 15(1). 99-135.
• Asteriou, D. ve Price, S. (2001). Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(4). 383-399.
• Ball, R. ve Rausser, G. (1995). Governance Structures and The Durability of Economic Reforms: Evidence From Inflation Stabilizations. World Development, 23(6), 897-912.
• Berument, H. ve Heckelman, J. C. (2005). Fractionalization Effect and Government Financing. International Journal of Applied Economics, 2(1). 37-49.
• Besley, T. (2007). The New Political Economy. The Economic Journal, 117. 570-587.
• Campos, N. F. ve Karanasos, M. G. (2008). Growth,Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896–2000..Economics Letters, 100(1), 135-137.
• Canes-Wrone, B. ve Park, J. K. (2012). Electoral Business Cycles in OECD Countries. American Political Science Review, 106(01), 103-122.
• Carmignani, F. (2003). Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics. Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 17(1), 1-54.
• Da Silva, G. F. (2002). The Impact of Financial System Development on Business Cycles Volatility: Cross-Country Evidence. Journal of Macroeconomics, 24(2). 233-253.
• Drazen, A. (2002). Political Economy in Macroeconomics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Dutt, P. ve Mitra, D. (2008). Inequality and the Instability of Polityand Policy. The Economic Journal, 118. 1285-1314.
• Edwards, S. (1993). The Political Economy of Infaliton and Stabilization in Developing Countries. (No. w4319). National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Edwards, S. ve Tabellini, G. (1991). Political Instability, Political Weaknessand Inflation: An Empirical Analysis. (No. w3721). National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Fatás, A. ve Mihov, I. (2013). Policy Volatility, Institutions and Economic Growth. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(2):362-376.
• Frey, B. S. ve Schneider, F. (1978). A Politico-Economic Model of The United Kingdom. The Economic Journal, 243-253.
• Gasiorowski, M. J. (1998). Macroeconomic Conditions and Political Instability: An Empirical Analysis. Studies in Comparative International Development, Vol. 33(3). 3-17.
• Gordon, P. ve Wang, L. (2004). Does Economic Performance Correlate with Big Government. Econ Journal Watch, 1(2). 192-221.
• Grochová, L. ve Kouba, L. (2011). Political Instability and Economic Growth: An Empirical Evidence From The Baltic States. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 59(2). 81-88.
• Gurr, T. R. (1974). Persistence and Change in Political Systems 1880-1971. The American Political Science Review, Vol. 68 (4), 1482-1504. Hibbs, D. A. (1977). Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy. The American Political Science Review, 71(4):1467-1487.
• Huntington, S. (1972). Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.
• Hurwitz, L. (1973). Contemporary Approachesto Political Stability. Comparative Politics, Vol. 5 (3):449-463.
• Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009). On The Measurement of Political Instability and Its Impact On Economic Growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(1):15-29.
• Kose, M.A., Prasad, E.S. ve Terrones, M.(2003). Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility. IMF Staff Papers (50):119–142.
• La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A. ve Vishny, R. (1999). The Quality of Government. Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 15(1):222-279.
• Londregan, J.B. ve Poole, K.T. (1990). Poverty, The Coup Trap and the Seizure of Executive Power. World Politics, Vol. 42 (2):151-183.
• Miljkovic, D. ve Rimal, A. (2008). The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Political Instability: A Cross-Country Analysis. The Journal of Socio-Economics,37(6): 2454-2463.
• Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2):169-190.
• Olson, M. (1982). The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities. Yale University Press.
• Özgüven, A. (2011). İktisadi Düşünceler-Doktrinler ve Teoriler. İstanbul: Filiz Kitabevi. Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1997). Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy. NBER Working Paper, No:6329.
• Persson, T. ve Tabellini, G. (1999). Political Economics and Public Finance. NBER Working Paper, No. 7097.
• Persson, T.ve Tabellini, G. (2002). Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy. The MIT Press.
• Polachek, S. W. ve Sevastianova, D. (2010). Does Conflict Disrupt Growth? Evidence of The Relationship Between Political Instability and National Economic Performance. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development,21(3):361-388.
• Potrafke, N. (2012).Political Cycles and Economic Performancein OECD Countries: Empirical Evidence From 1951–2006. Public Choice, 150(1-2):155-179.
• Rogoff, K. ve Sibert, A. (1988). Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles. The Review of Economic Studies, 55(1):1-16.
• Sakamoto, T. (2005). Economic Performance of ‘Weak’ Governments and Their Interactionwith Central Banks and Labour: Deficits, Economic Growth, Unemployment and Inflation, 1961–1998. European Journal of Political Research, 44(6):801-836.
• Sanders, D. (1981). Patterns of Political Instability.The Macmillan Press Ltd.
• Sayer, S. (2000). Issues in New Political Economy. Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 14(5):513-526.
• Snowdon B. ve Vane, H. (2012). Modern Makroekonomi Temelleri, Gelişimi ve Bugünü. Çeviri Editörü: Barış Kablamacı, Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
• Svensson, J. (1998). Investment, Property Rights and Political Instability: Theoryand Evidence. European Economic Review, 42, 1317-1341.
• Tang, C. F. ve Abosedra, S. (2014). The Impacts of Tourism, Energy Consumption and Political Instability on Economic Growth in The MENA Countries. Energy Policy, 68: 458-464.