MODELING THE IMPACT OF PLANNED HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANTS ON ECOSYSTEMS

Abstract

Estimates of the impact of hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) on an ecosystem are exemplified by the HPPs construction planned in Mongolia in the transboundary Selenga river basin. Implementation of the HPPs projects can lead to essential changes in natural hydrological regime of the Selenga river basin in the Russian Federation, which will influence the regional ecosystems and economy. The international status of natural objects in Russia, which can be affected by these projects, is an important factor. First of all, this concerns Lake Baikal, the World natural heritage site. The paper contains the main results of this problem research. Based on an analysis of hydrological characteristics of Mongolian and Russian parts of the Selenga river basin, and plans for the development of water supply systems and hydro power in Mongolia, the regulated flow of the Selenga river was modeled for different possible operating conditions of HPPs and hydraulic structures (the projects of the Shuren HPP, the Egiin Gol HPP, and the Orkhon-Gobi water diversion system). Possible risks of the impact of potential Mongolian HPPs are revealed, first of all, the risks for the ecosystems of Russian part of the Selenga river. The impact is estimated for separate and joined projects (cumulative impact). The risks of the impact of the HPP construction and operation mean the probability that the values of hydrological, hydro-morphological, morphometric, physicochemical and other abiotic and biotic characteristics of ecosystems will go beyond the limits of natural variability.

Keywords

• Hydroelectric power plants,Hydrological characteristics,Environmental flow,Abiotic and biotic characteristics,Ecosystems

References

1. Water National Programme. Attachment to Mongolian Parliament Resolution No. 24, 20 May, 73 pp. (2010).
2. In-Depth Review of Energy Efficiency Policies and Programmes: Mongolia Energy Charter Secretariat, Brussels, Belgium, 126 pp. (2011).
3. Integrated Water Management Plan of Mongolia // Government of Mongolia. Ministry of environment and green development. Ulaanbaatar, 340 pp. (2013).
4. Scheme of integrated use and protection of water resources. Yenisei River Basin Water Administration of Russian Federation, http://skiovo.enbvu.ru (2014).
5. Dams and development: a new framework for decision-making. The report of the World Commission on Dams. Earthscan Publications Ltd, London and Sterling, VA, 404 pp. (2000).
6. P.B. Landres, P. Morgan, F.J. Swanson, Overview of the Use of Natural Variability Concepts in Managing Ecological Systems. Ecological Applications, Vol. 9(4), pp. 1179-1188 (1999).
7. R.D. Smith, E. Maltby, Using the Ecosystem Approach to Implement the Convention on Biological Diversity: Key Issues and Case Studies. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK, 119 pp. (2003).
8. N.V. Abasov, E.N. Osipchuk, Metamodel description language for mathematical programming problems and its application in hydropower engineering // Vestnik of Irkutsk State Technical University, Russia, N 5 (64), pp. 8-15 (2012).

9. S.R. Chalov, M.G. Grechushnikova, M.I. Varentsov, N.S. Kasimov, Modern and predictive assessment of the flow of water and sediments of the rivers of the Selenga River Basin // Geography and natural resources, N 5, pp. 39-48 (2016).
10. A.V. Bazov, N.V. Bazova, Ecological conditions for bedding and distribution of eggs of the Baikal omul at the spawning grounds of the Selenga River (Lake Baikal basin) according to monitoring data (in 1997-2008). Library of breeding and state of stocks of whitefish. // Materials of the VII Inter national Scientific and Production Meeting, State Research and Production Center for Fisheries, Tyumen, Russia, pp. 70-74 (2010).