Predicting Tourism Firms' Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms

Yeşim Helhel; Yıldırım Yılmaz; Abdullah Akgün

doi:10.30519/ahtr.1782951

Predicting Tourism Firms' Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms

Abstract

This study explores how well the most popular decision tree algorithms can predict the financial and stock return performances of tourism firms listed on the stock exchange in an emerging economy. The models incorporate tourism growth metrics, macroeconomic variables, and firm-level financial indicators as predictors. To this end, four widely used decision tree algorithms are applied to quarterly data spanning from the first quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2024. The results indicate that the Random Forest algorithm achieves the strongest predictive performance for ROA, ROE, and stock return performance, recording the highest scores across all key metrics. The firms’ liquidity level (quick ratio), asset size, and real exchange rate as a macroeconomic variable are the most significant determinants of ROA and ROE. Regarding stock return performance as a market-based measurement, liquidity level and the real exchange rate remain critical, while tourism expenditures and the macroeconomic indicator of M2 money supply also prove to be significant determinants.

Keywords

Ethical Statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Tourism (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Yeşim Helhel
0000-0002-1293-6450
Türkiye

Yıldırım Yılmaz
0000-0002-6537-7111
Türkiye

Abdullah Akgün ^*
0000-0001-9949-1417
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

December 1, 2025

Publication Date

-

Submission Date

September 12, 2025

Acceptance Date

November 14, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: Advanced Online Publication

DOI

https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.1782951

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA88RG33HD

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Helhel, Y., Yılmaz, Y., & Akgün, A. (2025). Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR), Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.1782951

AMA

1.Helhel Y, Yılmaz Y, Akgün A. Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR). 2025;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.30519/ahtr.1782951

Chicago

Helhel, Yeşim, Yıldırım Yılmaz, and Abdullah Akgün. 2025. “Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms”. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR), no. Advanced Online Publication. https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.1782951.

EndNote

Helhel Y, Yılmaz Y, Akgün A (December 1, 2025) Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR) Advanced Online Publication

IEEE

[1]Y. Helhel, Y. Yılmaz, and A. Akgün, “Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms”, Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR), no. Advanced Online Publication, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.30519/ahtr.1782951.

ISNAD

Helhel, Yeşim - Yılmaz, Yıldırım - Akgün, Abdullah. “Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms”. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR). Advanced Online Publication (December 1, 2025). https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.1782951.

JAMA

1.Helhel Y, Yılmaz Y, Akgün A. Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR). 2025. doi:10.30519/ahtr.1782951.

MLA

Helhel, Yeşim, et al. “Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms”. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR), no. Advanced Online Publication, Dec. 2025, doi:10.30519/ahtr.1782951.

Vancouver

1.Yeşim Helhel, Yıldırım Yılmaz, Abdullah Akgün. Predicting Tourism Firms’ Performance Indicators Using the Decision Tree Algorithms. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR). 2025 Dec. 1;(Advanced Online Publication). doi:10.30519/ahtr.1782951